211 comments on How vulnerable to oil shocks are we, really?
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211 comments on How vulnerable to oil shocks are we, really?
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davidyson and Professor Goose
Thanks for putting up this post, I particularly like the summation of what a good energy policy should do, I hope very government in the world takes a look and gives consideration to this principle.
I'm from the US, and our very poor people are mostly dependent on cheap gasoline. The very poorest of the poor, the homeless, can't even afford a car except for the newly poorest who sleep in their vehicles.
Poor people in the US always buy used cars. Because they were better maintained, this mostly means used luxury cars like Caddilacs and Lincolns, and these vehicles are gas hogs.
They live in places without or with poor public transportation, because thats most of the US outside of a few cities . They are the rural poor in a decrepit huse trailer, or the old person in a bad neighborhood, or the handicapped person on SSI struggling to live anywhere at all.
What this means is that Alan Drake's electrification of rail is a necessity. It will cut transportation fuel by at a minimum of 1/6th easing pressure on prices, it make it possible for mant of us to get rid of automobiles altogether, and it doesn't hurt anybodies profits except long haul truckers, and they can be absorbed by the new RR jobs and expansion of local trucking. The bottom line,
WE NEED ELECTRIFICATION OF RAIL IMMEDIATELY
Bob Ebersole
Bob,
You're so right in a lot of ways.
This post really touched why I (speaking for myself here, but I know others on staff feel the same) give so much time to making this site function. Raising awareness and educating people about energy is my continued goal, but it's about the awareness of the human toll that motivates me to do this.
Of course, most of you know this, but unless we prepare now:
The poor of the world will become poorer, less socially mobile upwards than they are already, and less hopeful. (of course this raises the question of happiness and wealth I know...).
As we have discussed many times, the middle class will continue to be bifurcated into either the lower class or the upper class, with most going to the former.
Have you ever seen a person go "backwards" in their life not out of choice? It creates huge traumae for the entitled, it changes their mindset, makes them less social, not more.
On another point, my greatest fear at the moment is that we will be confronted with a serious recession, which will destroy US demand, but also squash serious investment in alternatives (both sources and means) because the price signal will tell the market all is well, no need to worry here. If that happens, it will just be another step along the long, slow, secular slog into obscurity for the US...and a further continuation of recent trends.
Professor Goose,
I've not only lost my class status through the changes in the economy, I became a heroin and crack addict and homeless. Through getting rid of drugs and changing circumstances I have regained at least a part of my former place in life. But I've not forgot either the destitution or dispair, aand I have to help others so I can stop my tendancy towards the selfishness and selfcenteredness that was the root cause of my behaviour. And I'm not kidding, that kind of altruism is a necessity, that's the real basis of Acoholics Anonymous and the other 12 step programs that have split off and grown out of A.A.
Bob Ebersole
Welcome back Bob.
I have friends who have endured similar pain--and I do not envy any of you the means of gaining your strength back.
Altruistic--it's a funny word. So many people think of it as meaning "sucker." I rather think of it as meaning "concerned and helpful."
But then again, maybe I am just a sucker. Where's Nietzsche when I need him? :)
Where's Nietzsche when I need him?
He was hugging a horse the last I heard about him.
indeed, even if he did go to the nuthouse for a few years following the incident I imagine he still thought a lot about his embrace.
From Daybreak:
330
Not enough! - It is not enough to prove something, one has also to seduce or elevate people to it. That is why the man of knowledge should learn how to speak his wisdom: and often in such a way that it sounds like folly!
394
Without vanity. - Passionate people think little of what others are thinking: the condition they are in raises them above vanity.
The selfishness and selfcenteredness that was the root cause of my behavior
My psychiatrist friend (who will be able to attend Friday @ ASPO-Houston :-) has also mentioned that. She spends one or two days/week as part of her residency at Odyssey House (a residential drug rehab center in New Orleans). As well as the total helplessness and despair that too many fall into and is so difficult to climb back out of.
The Path to Happiness and Fulfillment is not through Self.
My applause on your honesty and sharing the insight !
Best Hopes,
Alan
It is a little risky sharing that kind of thing over the internet with people I don't know. Its almost a sure thing this bring out the troll in some people, but the again, they can't hurt me.
The coming economic disaster is going to cause a lot of dispair. And the drugs I mentioned are a small suicide .Everybody knows their results, yet there are new addicts made every day. Their allure is partly this distructiveness though, they are a little suicide. The suubjective effect are emotional numbing, and a form of ecstacy. The reason most people never climb out is because they return with the excuse "I won't let it get me this time" or, "to hell with it, I just don't care anymore".
So, I think many people will return to them or start to use as their whole world falls apart.
One of the things that made me vulnerable was tying my whole self image up on my carrer and place in society. I'm a landman, and a great one. On a couple of different occassions I've put together oil prospects that were immensely profitable. But if I put my entire self-esteem in that, I'm a fool. I , like all humans, have a need to like and respect myself, and I want others to love and respect me. The best way for me to learn this, I figured was to observe what I liked, loved and respected in other humans, and to apply it in my own life.
The people I respect most are creative, i.e. they go within themselves to tap something thats part of every person yet greater than every person. In most parts of the world this is called God, in others a muse, or even a meme.Yes, I know its not scientific, but its there for me.
The persons I respect most are all people who try to give of themslves to others generously. And, in this site I find a lot of people who do that-thats why I decided to speek out about this , in spite of any personal risk. Prof. G., I really respect that about the editors and contributors here.
The people I respect most are kind and compassionate. I think every person needs to look at other to see how they can help them out, becuse the sum total of good in this world try to do good and it accumulates, and, this truly is a good world.
As far as love, we all need to be loved. But if you want to be loved, that deperation drives others away. If however, I love other people in the sense of wanting the best for them and trying to help them acheive their goals, its oftened returned. Another of the paradoxical truths about being human.
I also need to distinguish what I really need in my life. I need food, clothing and a place to sleep at night, the rest of it is more than enough. And i'm more than blessed that way-my main worries are needing to be on a diet because of too much to eat, and I refuse to borrow trouble on the rest of it
I think the world operates on the might is right principle. Physical, economic or otherwise.
My mom feeds the pigeons often and the big ones push the smaller ones away, the cat will catch or attempt to catch even the biggest pigeon, the dog will chase the cat etc...
Someone in the first world can get a face lift, while the Indonesian making the same person's nike shoes and track suit can't get basic health care.
Humans have the capacity to think beyond this limited greed based paradigm, I do believe that what I see in the real world validates the might is right doctrine that overrides any significant altruism.
I think the biggest problems are overpopulation and inequality. The two share a relatinship Ricardo's "iron law of wages" overpopulation also leads to a feeling of despair when contemplating assistance to the masses.
concerned
of course there are always preditors and prey. But what other species even makes organised attempts to help others?
Is there dolphin welfare with one dolphin bring a ration of fish to a crippled dolphin?Have elephants in Africa set up refuges and camps for the child soldiers?
And the answer is none. They are incapable, I'm sure is the excuse, or reason, but the fact remains that man does try to aid the helpless members of society and do things like set up refuges for orphaned gorillas and orangatangs.
There's a meme to help others. Any science that is published has the motive of helping others through sharing knowledge. Rven the Jehova's Witnesses that come to the door do so to keep you from going to hell. And even if you disagree with their premise as I do, I know they are tring to live their faith and share the joy they find with me, so I just tell 'em god bless you, I'm happy with my church, I'm very glad to see that you are witnessing as the bible tells us all to, take their magazine and shut the door. I guess its lying to them but the easiest way to move them down the street.
Bob Ebersole
Bob,
Thank you for sharing this.
I'm not so sure other animals don't make organized attempts to help others as they certainly seem to be a lot more intelligent and sophisticated than we have assumed. This piece on elephants was heart-rending for me:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/08/magazine/08elephant.html?pagewanted=1&...
We are constantly having to revise our view of the 'lower' animals in terms of their having not only feelings but somewhat sophisticated culture.
"I'm not so sure other animals don't make organized attempts to help others as they certainly seem to be a lot more intelligent and sophisticated than we have assumed."
We have a deck with glass panels. There's a bird feeder outside my window, over the deck.
Every other week or so, a bird -- generally a fledgeling, who hasn't learned yet -- flies into the glass and knocks themselves silly.
When that happens, I go out, pick up the poor thing, and set it on the railing, so that when it comes to, it won't immediately fly into the glass again.
The funny thing is when a semi-conscious bird is sitting there, other birds will come up and sit with it -- they never sit on the deck railing otherwise. It isn't just relatives; it's often birds of different species.
It's probably anthropomorphic to think so, but I like to think they're keeping the dazed bird company until it can fly again.
:::: Jan Steinman, Communication Steward, EcoReality http://www.EcoReality.org ::::
The Law of Mutual Aid --a treatise by Peter Kropotkin. Can GOOGLE it and read it on the net.The subject ranges across various species.
By the way, amazing thread, this. Warms me heart.
ET
I stand saddened and ashamed of my species. That's a masterful piece of writing, and I had no idea of what the elephant extermination is destroying.
About 40 years ago an oil operator named Bill Kilroy bought an elephant for his ranch in Brookshire. He was arich Republican, but this was in the early 60's, pre Nixon presidency or the "southern strategy" that enshrined Republican racism. My father would take us out to visit a lot. Bill Kilroy was given two more babies by other rich Pachyderms, and he hired an elephant trainer. I don't know what ever happened to the elephants, but the trainer was arrested for child molesting.
William S. Bill Kilroy was a very nice man and a great operator, a big buddy of Bob Mosbacher's. Ran a big drilling fund and died about 10 years ago. He operated a lot of wells, too. I'm glad I knew him.
Bob Ebersole
Certainly predator and prey and the distinction is strong or powerful over the weak.
It's why some punk with a gun or knife can take your wallet in an alley and the same punk if caught gets to front court and go to jail.
I don't want to put a "good" or "bad" spin on things. Just and observation.
I would add that it is easier to give in a world of plenty when you yourself have a surplus. Take away that surplus and induce even a mild defecit and giving becomes impossible.
We could live in a better world. If humanity came together decided to share resources more equally AND most importantly agree to somehow control our numbers. A planet with five hundred million people, working for each others mutual benefit without being marketed the need for rapacious overconsumption. That would be in my view a better world.
I concur with concerned. I respect Bob, for his effort on this website, and his eloquent and persistent dedication to discussions about energy and our future, etc. I am not optimistic like him though, and am not sure on a whole that human nature is all as shiny as he polishes it up to be. I think his "God meme" is a little too much--if anything he is really using it disingenuously. Religious hatred is pretty apparent and one doesn't need to cite anything modern--their own source texts indicate this. Of course, it doesn't have to be, there are plenty of tolerant, moral and loving lambs of God (I guess they just haven't read their books, or perhaps don't understand them--but lets not argue scripture, I'd just footnote the header-image here)... This is of course clearly just my biased opinion!
Economic inequality is not alone in the human world either. There is emotional crisis all around the world (this is something even the "developed nations" cannot escape from, as evidence here in this own thread.) The level of "insanity" in Iraq I'm sure is pretty horrific, if it could even be measured (they'd blow up the social scientists--all sides.) Read your Celine, war is insane (but don't hate). There is a lot to be concerned about if one wishes to be (hint: most don't, or aren't doing anything, or don't know what to do, etc). From my observation most of the country is not all that concerned. That's my smug conclusion, for the four pennies it's worth.
Judging from politics, save nuclear war with Iran and a spiraling war in Iraq (where is that again? there is one somewhere else too, but I can't be bothered with that) everything is Jolly Well Fine, onwards and upwards with the American dream (whatever the hell that is). That is until we crash into a fruit cart.
I really should abide by the second dictum I posted upthread and not be so concerned about nitpicking like this, I just have to respond to the AA pipe-dream that if we all love God and love one another it will all be alright...
It's moments like those I want to join up with the John Birch Society, vote GOP and read Schopenhauer. I don't have a lot of faith in people, I guess is what I'm saying... Until polls prove otherwise, I'm sticking with my guns (that's a metaphor--you never know here...)
mr f,
I didn't say I believed in god. If any thing, i'm a vague deist, I go to the Episcopal church. We're the church that can't play chess, we can't tell a bishop from a queen. Luckily,most Anglicans don't care what you believe, just keep it to yourself.
And i'm not blind to either the good or evil that church's and religeous people do. Church's set up soup kitchens, and they also have driven many people to suicide with their attitudes about being gay. Church members often shun people that are different, but who else will come sit with a dying person?
I get a small buzz from the service, the ritual puts me in a meditative or contemplative mood, but that's likely self hypnotism. but so do Hindoos and Budhists and whirling sufi dervishes. and all the mythology is just that, mythology. If it moves you, ok, but its ok if it doesn't. and some of it is absolutely evil, like St Paul justifying slavery, or the story of Lot whiich seems to endorse rape, child molesting and incest. But I do think acting in other peoples best interest, kindness, altruism-acting with love-is the best instruction for human relationships ever written down. But there are sure a lot of kind, loving atheists too, and they are just as important for a better world.
So the real answer to my little sermon is doubt everything, know that you are not god(the most important thing) and try to be a good person, whatever that is.
I'm guessing the hermeneutics of "being good" and "knowing you're not God" reaches from here to Betelgeuse.
The one thing that really differentiates humans from animals is that we don't HAVE to act like animals. While the hard-wired programming of instinct has a more profound and pervasive influence on our behavior than many of us like to admit, we nevertheless have evolved minds with the capacity to over-ride that underlying programming. We can choose to not act the way that animals naturally would under the circumstances. Thus you have firemen plunging into a burning building that any animal would run away from.
Not really over-ride, more like understand, manage, and suppress. Firemen experience fear, they just know how to deal with it. And that comes from a lot of backup, training, and practice. And they still get injured, burned, or killed.
Our higher reasoning is barely 100K to 200K years old, while the mammalian (limbic) and reptilian (r-complex) brains, upon which higher reasoning is built, are hundreds of millions of years old. There's a lot of baggage in there. And when higher reasoning fails an individual, too much or conflicting information, it's a survival mechanism to turn to the more "primitive" functions.
Oh, and by the way, humans don't just act like animals. As a mammalian species, we are animals. Look it up.
We have intractable problems if we can't start dealing with humans as they are rather than how we think they should be.We have intractable problems.
In the book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb (page 86) there is a section called Peer Cruelty
Essentially, he points out that there are 2 types of profession - steady and boring or lumpy and interesting. Being a landman is clearly in the latter category - you can work for years without reward and if you are lucky may make a fortune out of one deal.
The problem is how to deal with the comparison between your apparent "failure" when your wife is comparing you to her sister's husband - a "successful" car salesman. You may have to put up with years of apparent failure before, if you are lucky, making it. In retrospect, everyone will say that they knew you had it in you.
Mhhhh...
Maybe I need to go back and post some of those comments you made to me a few days ago when I questioned the usage of the FAQ rules on postings(or the lack of them) and you called me very rude and ugly names.
A "hick" I was. All I knew was the 'ass end of a mule" and more in the same vein. A real hatchet job. Did you feel better afterwards?
If I need to review it, please inform me so. I think though
that I have it correct. I did note that you had broken even more of the FAQ rules with that reply, more than the ones about sourcing,calling opinion/fact.etc.
Maybe YOU need to review it instead.
Airdale-still looking for that mule's ass end
Airdale,
go right ahead. Its always easier to look at someone elses behaviour than look at your own. And scapegoating was the thing I called you out on-but hey, now you can discount me and pose more effective ad hominem attacks in the future!
I owe any stability I have in my life to AA, and it has worked for the past 28 years, and I'm an agnostic so I don't know what that says.
I think that Bob is right and that the only way for us to survive will be to pool our skills and support each other, It wont be easy and we may die in the attempt but at least we would not "go gently into that good night"
I am 70 and I can recall some of life in the oil scarce civilian life during WW2 in the UK, A lot of horse and cart and battery vehicle deliveries, producer gas generators towed behind buses. steam trains,bicycles, street cars. Food growing (Dig for Victory). Food, clothing, etc rationed, Standing in line for everything, coal shortages, everything shortages, but survival.
People took care of each other, not all the time, but enough
It was not an unhappy childhood.
That is why I have some hope although I could well be wrong
Quite a revelation for TOD there, Mr. Bob sir, and I thought we were supposed to remain anonymous at the level of press, radio, and film?
Oh dear, now I've gone and done it, too.
SacredCowTipper,
the big book and the 12 and 12 don't mention internet. And my motive was not to boast or engage in a self-agrandisement, but rather share how I've come to want to help others. But if you don't like it, that's your problem, not mine.
The poor of the world. Let them eat cake or dieoff. What other choice do they really have?
Been there, done that. It took me about ten years to get my financial life built back to a lower but relatively secure and sustainable level. Now I'm glad I'm no longer living that former life.
A lot of it depends on mindset and values. If you define your entire sense of self-worth and purpose in life in terms of an ambitious climb up the ladder and the obsessive accumulation of stuff, then the tumble down will indeed be extremely traumatic, and quite possibly fatal. Fortunately for me, my ambitiousness was of a more modest and curable variety; ditto with my acquisitiveness. I'm now here to tell you that there are more important things in life than the box in which one resides in an organizational chart or the number of steps and backsides over which one has climbed up the pyramid. Furthermore, life does not consist only of the size of one's paycheck or the stuff bought with it.