143 comments on Credit markets: 'Don't panic', they beg
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143 comments on Credit markets: 'Don't panic', they beg
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Brain--
The people running this Global Casino want us now to cover their losses--
So much for the mantra "let the market decide who is the best"--
The Iron Fist of the market should bloody a few noses, and maybe they will need to actually get a job--
Virtual wealth can dissipate in a instant-- just like it was created (and with very few actual atoms involved)--
Superstition based economics are now trying to deny thermodynamics--
This is at least the third time that I've seen funny money derivatives take the whole market down dangerously. Perhaps its time to make trading them illegal in the US markets.
The first time wasin the mid-eighties, when the collapsing price of oil and the bank lending and mortgage markets took down the real estate and oil exploration in Texas.
the second time was when the savings and loan crisis and Michael Milken's derivatives caused the sale of virtually every bank and savings and loan in Texas.
And, now's the third time. But, there's been a couple of others that seem similar, but complicated by fraud. I'm thinking about Enron and Long Term Capital.
Yeah guys, I know it is against your "free market" principles. But, its your Mutual Fund and IRA that's going to take the hit on this, while the Hedge Fund cowboys walk away with the profits from looting your mother's teachers pension fund. Sometimes we just need a little regulation. Bob Ebersole
"Sometimes we just need a little regulation."
Couldn't agree more.
The market is good system if you are using it to advance society. The market is not so good if your goal is to game it for personal gain.
From Bonddad:
"Thursday, August 9, 2007
Countrywide Financial Reports Major Disruptions
From the WSJ:
Countrywide Financial Corp. faces "unprecedented disruptions" in debt and mortgage-finance markets that could hurt earnings and the company's financial condition, the Calabasas, Calif., lender said in a regulatory filing. (Read the SEC filing)
......
Payments were at least 30 days late on about 20% of "nonprime" mortgages serviced by Countrywide as of June 30, up from 14% a year earlier.
.....
On prime home equity loans, the delinquency rate was 3.7%, up from 1.5% a year before. For all loans, the rate was 5%, up from 3.9%.
In a sign of the growing difficulty in selling loans, Countrywide said that it transferred $1 billion of nonprime mortgages from its "held for sale" category to "held for investment" in the first half. Countrywide marked the value of those loans down to $800 million. It also decided to retain as investments, rather than sell, $700 million of prime home equity loans, marking them down to $600 million. Countrywide has said many of those home equity loans were second-lien mortgages used by people who put little or no money down in buying a house.
Translation.
Countrywide is the largest home lender in terms of loan volume. If they can't et a deal done -- no one can.
Countrywide couldn't sell $1 billion of loans at a decent price. They cut the value
of these loans by 20% when they transferred those loans to their investment portfolio.
Countrywide couldn't sell $700 billion of prime loans, and devalued those by 14%.
That means the going price on both of these investments is probably lower than the devaluation on the balance sheet. Subprime loans are going for less than 80% of face value and prime loans are going for less than 14% of face value.
Simply put -- liquidity just isn't there in the market right now. And the crunch is getting worse because Countrywide couldn't sell prime loans."
"The liquidity just isn't there in the market right now." Disagree - the liquidity is there, but at a price. This isn't a "credit crunch," just a repricing of risk, an event that will indeed deflate the value of "assets" held on financial intermediaries' balance sheets. "Legitimate" credit needs will be met, a demand category that does not include Ninja (no income, no job, no assets) mortgage loans, all the nonsense going on with "private equity" (a retread of the good old LBO days), and other assorted misallocations of capital. Adding up what the Fed, the EU, and other assorted central banks have pumped into the repo market in the last two days comes out to nearly a quarter of a trillion bucks, hopefully not a number that will be annualized!
Retranslation :-)
Countrywide couldn't sell $700 Million of prime loans, and devalued those by 14%.
Subprime loans are going for less than 80% of face value and prime loans are going for less than 86% of face value.
If your mother is a teacher or otherwise has a pension, her benefit is guaranteed whatever happens to the fund. That assumes her employer doesn't go bankrupt or otherwise dump its obligations on the PGC.
If you invested your 401K or mutual fund in hedge funds or CDOs or toxic waste tranches, you can reap the worldwind. You pay your money, you take your chances.
Pension funds and the entire financial industry are already regulated out the ying-yang. Which doesn't prevent Enron from ripping you off. Or hedge funds from charging outrageous fees that some people willingly pay.
What sort of regulation do you propose? Making bad investments illegal? If you wish to make fraud illegal, that has already been done.
We need several amendments. I'm not a finance guy, I'm a contract specialist in the oil and gas industry, this isn't my area of expertise, but here goes:
1. I'd like to see the weird accounting go away that allows a company to book profits before the money is received. The counting your chickens before the egg is even laid-What's it called, Mark to Market?
2. Pensions and other funds where the money is managed by a fiduciary should have to disclose fully to the regulators and the beneficiaries
a. The name of any hedge funds and their country of registration. In other words, if they are operating under Panamanian registration to dodge taxes, or Bahamian so they can have bank secrecy, I want to know it
b.The principles in any hedge fund and their compensation from the fiduciary's funds.
c. their general type of business-oil and gas comodity speculation, investments in loan tranches, investments in any illiquid investment like working interests in oil and gas wells exploration funds, or loan products that are new and have never sold in a market
d. any commissions paid to the trustees, including things like golf vacations in Scotland or investment conferences at somebody's Alaskan hunting lodge
e. other involvements of the trustees with any of the principles of the fund-were they given a personal opportunity to get in on somebody's commercial real estate deal with 100% financing in exchange for using the trust fund's money in another commercial real estate deal with a big back in after payout?
3.participants in a company operated 401K, or a union pension fund should be offered easily transferred at no cost options like a mutual fund or inflation indexed treasury bond fund
4.. Boards of Directors or Fiduciaries should be liable for their mistakes, including liability that uses the assets things like their inhertited Testamentary Trusts to repay victims of malfeasance
5. a death penalty for corporations and people's careers. If a person uses a corporation to defraud others, the person should never be allowed to work in any financial capacity again. For example, any director of a company like Enron or Reliant or Duke should be prohibited from being an officer or director of any corporation. When a company like Reliant is found guilty of fraud like the California natural gas manipulation, all the officer's should be prohibited from being the officer or director of any other company, and the company sold to an honest company in the field, or the assets broken up and distributed to the victims, the creditors and the stock and bond holders, in that order.
That ought to be a pretty good start. The general principle is that the deals should be transparent, and Trustees and Boards shouldn't be allowed to shelter any assets from repaying injured parties. Let's allow people to know what their fiduciaries are really up to, and give them a no cost way of opting out.There's a lot of difference between a Bond fund in Treasury Inflation Indexed Securities, and a Bond fund in outlandish products that nobody can understand and are illiquid, like all the Tranches in the subprime loans. And last but not least by any means, why are corporations allowed to continue after they have engaged in criminal fraud? Why are multimillionaires on a board allowed to shelter any of their assets from the victims of fraud or gross stupidity? Why are corporate bondholders and lenders given preference in bankruptcys over victims of fraud?
1. Mark to market is something else. A lot of these toxic waste tranches don't have no markets to mark too. Ok, let's take a real world example. I go to the McStore and buy some McCrap on my credit card. A week later the McBank credits the McStore's bank account with actual money. A month later the McBank discovers the credit card number was stolen off the web. So they yank their money out of the account. When can McStore Inc. book the sale as profits?
2. Pension funds are regulated out the ying-yang. Not my area of expertise. They already file thousand page documents you can leaf through.
4. Board of Directors can already be sued for their mistakes. That's why your pension funds buys D&O insurance with your money. Don't you love when security lawyers vow to bankrupt a malfeasing company on behalf of the stockholders they allegedly represent.
5. The SEC already bars people from working in securities again. That's why the crooks have to keep finding new ways to scam people.
Oilmanbob,
We lost the right to a corporate death penalty in 1886 when …
“…[A] two-sentence assertion by a single judge elevated corporations to the status of persons under the law, prepared the way for the rise of global corporate rule, and thereby changed the course of history.
http://www.ratical.org/corporations/SCvSPR1886.html
“The only explanation provided was the court recorder’s reference to something he says Waite said, which essentially says, “that’s just our opinion” without providing legal argument.” http://www.thomhartmann.com/theft.shtml
One further antiquated idea for this credit crisis thread….
U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 10, Clause 1:
No state shall… make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt. http://www.usconstitution.net/const.html#A1Sec10
Explaining the US economy?:
"...glorification of that sort of gambling in "clever strokes" which constitutes the very essence of theft, swindling, and all sorts of similar anti-social deeds." Peter Kropotkin comments on prison systems and relevant inmates ca. 1899
Bob -
I liked to add a few refinements to your comments regarding how some avoidable financial mistakes has caused some serious pain in your lifetime.
Milkin didn't do derivatives, he & his cohorts at Drexel helped establish what we now term the "High Yield" market. (Back in the day, such bonds were termed "Junk Bonds".) Overall, the world is far better off with such a market. That said, the HY bond market is not for the faint of heart. Then again, neither are equity markets... Milkin got in trouble for using "inside" information to trade in & out of these bonds.
The LTCM mess was far, far more serious than most realize. The problem was the massive leverage on the part of LTCM, not the implied leverage in the derivative securities they held. The forced liquidiation of LTCM's large positions would have likely caused markets to "sieze up". For once, Greenspan did something right by organizing an orderly sell off of LTCM's book. (Yes, I made a a few bucks from taking positions off of LTCM. Ah, the good ol' days ...)
The current subprime mess was largely created by the Greenspan FED. The FED knew that a real estate 'bubble' was likely to occur as a result of their decision to lower rates to fight the 'Phantom Menance' of deflation. Moreover, the FED also knowingly chose to NOT act (i.e., regulate) lenders when the no-doc and Alt-A volumes started to explode. The FED could have easily nipped the current subprime mess in the bud. Greenspan "rolled the dice" and now we're all suffering for it.
The big losses on The Street recently have been in "stat-arb" books. It appears that many, many of these books were using VERY similar models. (I did stat-arb for a while in my younger days by the way) The last few days, these books have been "reducing risk" i.e., dumping their positions. A typical stat-arb book uses roughly 4-1 leverage these days and just look at all the volatility unwinding these books is causing. Just imagine what dumping the (up to) 100-1 levered LTCM book might have caused ...
I don't view the FED doing it's job as a violation of any free market principles. Don't apologize.
Not every hedge fund trader/portfolio manager is a "cowboy", though I do a know a few. We PhD guys in the financial markets are a highly varied lot: some of the absolute smartest people I have ever known have PhDs and manage money, but some of the absolute dumbest people I've ever known also have PhDs and also have been allowed to manage money ...
Sonic: You didn't respond to Bob's post at all. What you did write was another of your long winded posts detailing your impressive resume. Obviously Bob is clueless as he didn't do "stat-arb". We are very impressed that you made money from LTCM. Congrats.
BrainT -
Bob wrote " .. funny money derivatives take the whole market down ..." and " ... Michael Milken's derivatives ..."
and ".. now's the third time." as well as alluding to LTCM.
I addressed Milkin, LTCM, and the current mess. So, I did respond to Bob's post, just not every aspect of it. You are wrong, but I'm sure this isn't the first time.
Regarding my "resume", the references to LTCM and stat-arb were intended to communicate to the reader that I have first-hand experience with both subjects -- experience not likely possessed by others who post at and/or read the TOD.
So, what's your problem BrianT? My posts are infrequent and typically short. My post above is somewhat long, but not even the longest in this thread. Do you respond the same when others (like Bob or Robert R. or WT) mention, say, their oil related credentials? Or, when Don S., an econ guy, puts up a long post about economics?
From your posts in this thread you appear to be nothing more than yet another uninformed, conspiracy theory nut.
Sonic: Two points- 1. I consider myself to be a relatively well informed conspiracy nut 2. when responding to my posts you can use my handle-BrianT-no need to label me as the Brain (I don't call you the Silver Spoon baby.)
BrianT, as I said, I'm not particularly educated in financial markets, but that doesn't make me clueless, you arrogant pissant. I'm pretty observant, and expert in a number of areas of which you know nothing. But, more than that, I know my limitations and am willing to freely admit when I'm wrong.
If I were "clueless" I'd just take the Joe Sixpack attitude of dumping my savings in a mutual fund and allowing people to manage my money and charge me exhorbitant commissions, or even not having savings and relying on social security.
But true cluelessness is going around insulting people that you've never met, and assuming that because you have a specialists vocabulary in a particular area, that you are somehow superior to them.
Bob Ebersole
Bob: Relax-the comment was meant as sarcasm. I was insulting Sonic man, not yourself. I have no idea what you mean by a "specialists vocabulary".
Sonic -
What's your take on the dollar right now?
I'll take any dollar anyone will give me. I'm selling carbon credits. Cheap!. Soothe your conscious.
Precisely. There's huge difference between money and credit - credit is ephemeral and can dry up almost overnight as we're seeing at the moment. IMO the resulting debt implosion is only just beginning.
We're discussing the credit crunch in today's Round-Up over at TOD:Canada.