What "fundamentals" are they talking about? Ability of central banks to print money,....

Small caveat here. Banks, central or otherwise, do not print money. Banks do create money by loaning out money they have on deposit, which is deposited back into the banks and more money is created by loaning out that money and so on.

However banks lose this ability to create money as loans are recalled or defaulted on. These are the fundamentals! The money supply moves up and down, driven by the credit market and other things.

I know you may have meant banks create money when you said they print money. But this phrase has been repeated so many times that a lot of people actually believe that banks have a printing press in the back room where they print money. This is a dangerous myth that does not need to be perpetuated.

The vast majority of money in circulation does not exist in any form of print. It is only a ledger entry, or computer entry, on the banks books. And that is just another great misuse the word "print".

Only the US Treasurer can print money and they do it only when old worn out bills are burned or new money is ordered, and paid for, by the banks.

A little story. I have read that the poor of South Africa and other African countries, mostly blacks, believe that white people, when they run out of money, can simply go to the bank and get some more. The bank, to them, is just a magical place where white people can go to get money on demand. The belief that banks can simply print money, when they need some more, is very similar to this belief.

Ron Patterson

Ron —

Please contact me at dave . aspo @ gmail . com

You've been tracking EIA projections, I think, and I'd like to see whatever data you have. Dick Lawrence recommended that I contact you.

Thanks, Dave

True that the central banks generally don't "print" money to increase money supply, but they buy treasury and mortgage securities from other banks using electronic money created out of thin air in a process known as monetization of debt.

Yes, that was my point all along. Banks create money from debt, they do not print money. And money created by monetization is a little like the "will of the wisp". Just as it was created out of thin air it can disappear the same way. Printed money does not disappear. It may inflate but it never just goes away.

Since October 1, 1877, all U.S. currency has been printed by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, which started out as a six person operation using steam powered presses in the basement of the Department of Treasury. Now, 2,300 Bureau employees occupy twenty-five acres of floor space in two Washington, D.C. buildings. The Treasury also operates a satellite printing plant in Ft. Worth, Texas.
http://www.frbsf.org/federalreserve/money/funfacts.html

Ron Patterson

"monetization of debt"

During times like this when the Fed is temporarily (again, temporarily) exchanging cash for debt, it is highly unlikely that the cash will be re-leveraged by the bank that receives it -- see "repurchase agreement" on wikipedia. Secondly, the debt in question still requires interest payments to be made.