193 comments on DrumBeat: August 12, 2007
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193 comments on DrumBeat: August 12, 2007
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A little fun for a slow news Sunday,
You all might enjoy this website - where are you really in the political spectrum?
http://www.politicalcompass.org/
I fell right on the Dalai Lama. (Last time I took it I was just to the right of the Dalai Lama.)
I agree that I am a libertarian but the communism/neo-liberalism axis appears to be a compassion/"you're on your own" axis or perhaps a humanity/corporatism axis. Frankly, I like people to be nice and respectful of each other. I guess that makes me a communist. ;)
I would think that, after the last couple of weeks, everyone would be a little 'left' of letting the corporations do whatever they want.
Was fun thanks for the link.
As expected, I came about centre on both scales.
Economic: -9.00
Social: -8.92
You'll probably notice that a disproportionate number of people come up with results in the libertarian-communist bottom left corner relative to how much that stance is represented by the media, politicians, and our general political discourse. And a disproportionate number of political personalities end up in the top right corner. For instance, John Kerry, The Decider (known to us lowly peons as "George W. Bush), and Tony Blair all come up in the top right corner, even though two of those fellows are ostensibly on the "other side of the spectrum." There really isn't a choice in our political system.
for a long time now in the states the political spectrum has shifted very strongly to the left. that is why you hear people talking about how "free markets solve everything". That is patently false, with natural monopolies the free market fails, with monopolies and cartels the free market fails.
Typically those people who advocate only free market solutions are ignorant of the role government should play with regards to private versus societal values(subsidize items where the societal value is greater than the private, and tax those items where societal cost is greater than private). (like mandatory TB vaccinations - did you know that the reason for the no spitting taboo is because of TB, a highly contagious bacterium which resides in the lung. Someone spitting up wads of TB all the time is basically a disease machine!)
The current thinking is to slam society with the costs, and privatize the gain. Look at what it has gotten china, a ruined environment and country which will take decades to clean up.
If you have designed a TB vaccination you should let the WHO know. As of now we don't have one...
Sure we do - it's just not generally used in the US.
BCG Vaccine
I work with a lot of foreign born medical personnel who have received it.
TB was eliminated from the population shortly after antibiotics were discovered.
the societal prohibition against spitting lives on however, and is especially prevalent in countries were TB exists, but is not always treated.
Google MDR tuberculosis and XDR tuberculosis.
Also, please remember that:
1. People are food to disease. Disease feeds on us. The larger the human population, the more disease will seek to eat us, the larger the disease population.
2. The more closely packed together humans are, all other things being equal, the easier it is for disease to spread.
3. Disease, our only remaining natural predators, are fought off preventively through hygiene with soap, pumped water, heated water, cooking, extermination of disease vectors (rats, mosquitos) and reactively with antibiotics, healthcare, and waste disposal. All are accomplished with cheap energy to meet the needs of 6.7 billion people.
When it becomes harder to treat or prevent infection, it won't just be a breakout of XDR TB, it will include typhoid, cholera, meningitis, flu, various hemorrhagic fevers, dysentery, hepatitis, and even plague, all of which are still being ineffectively kept in check.
How effectively will we fight disease as cheap energy declines? And how will unfolding disease outbreaks affect our ability to harness more energy?
Indeed, I think disease will have a far far bigger role to play in any sort of population reduction as the result of declining oil supplies than starvation from declining food production. Especially as third world countries become increasing urbanised, living densely in horribly unhygenic slums, it will take nothing short of a miracle to keep disease rates from skyrocketing in the coming decades. It may well be enough to keep the maximum global population as low as 8 billion (as opposed to the currently projected 9-10 billion from various organisations). While this might be better for the planet, it will be nothing short of devastating for those living in such conditions.
simply put, we wont, the couple you name (typhoid, cholera) will be the worst. dehydration is the biggest killer. Remember to bring water to a boil and then let it cool to destroy pathogens.
Uhhhhh...
I work in a hospital in Silicon Valley (not the county facility)and we are seeing an increase in TB cases.
Shortly after is the key word. TB was not entirely eliminated in all countries, however its prevalence was reduced to such an extent that the current couple generations have nil risk of contracting it. The same with smallpox. As to current trends, moving from 0 to 1 or 2 cases a year is bad(of the super duper bad TB), but compared to previous ages when sanatoriums were used to ease the suffering of thousands upon thousands I will keep the modern world thankyou.
And the Xtreme TB and super extreme drug resistent TB are caused by antibiotic administration which is not 100% effective (the same resistance eventually occurs with all bacteria)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis#history seems to back me up nearly 100%
this obviously only applies to countries where streptomycin is available in large amounts and cheaply to boot. wiki says 2 billion people currently have TB, with pretty much none in 1st world nations.
Smallpox and TB are not at all "the same". Smallpox has been eliminated in the population. TB has not and is actually re surging. Here. In the first world.
It is not simply antibiotic administration that causes resistance. It is also patients that are not compliant with treatment. Antibiotics are prescribed for a certain period of time for a reason, but many people stop taking them when they feel better, not realizing that the infection has not been eliminated.
You obviously don't work in the medical field, at least not clinically.
Source: World Health Organization
Huh? "[T]he political spectrum has shifted very strongly to the left" and "free markets solve everything" are to me incompatible - it's usually those on the left-side of the political spectrum that favour more government regulation and higher taxes to curb the excesses of laissez-faire capitalism. Of course the political spectrum has never truly been 1-dimensional anyway, but what I would describe it as is a simultaneous move towards neo-liberalism and neo-conservatism, which often occur as two sides of the same coin.
My personal position is that its not the amount of regulation and taxation that's the problem - it's the manner in which its done. i.e. I'd like to see far higher taxes on consumption and pollution (including GHG pollution), but OTOH lower income and payroll taxes. I'd argue for more competitivity regulation (to prevent monolithic companies from getting too powerful and effectively suppressing innovation to protect their own interests), and more environmental regulation, but perhaps less regulation in other areas such as price controls, zoning (where businesses are allowed to operate), workplace requirements that tend to unfairly burden small businesses and start-up companies etc. etc.
I'd also take the general attitude that before making any activity outright illegal, at least give businesses and consumers a chance to change behaviour on their own first, with tax incentives and education campaigns etc. If there's no improvement within a certain time-period, then enforce legislation.
I've no idea where all that puts me on the political spectrum!
Wiz, you just don't get it. If there is no improvement in a a certain time period its because people don't want to live that way.
And if people don't want to live that way you can't force them to with legislation. Not in a democracy. The voters will vote for the policies they like, not what's best for them.
And don't start with that crap about how people want what's best for them. Cause we all know that F150s and McMansions are what they want.
We have legislation that prevents people from smoking in clubs and restaurants. And guess what, they don't - they day after the legislation came into effect, clubs and restaurants went from smoke-filled and smelly to clean and odour-free. Most people (and even corporations) are law-abiding most of the time, whether you believe so or otherwise.
People only follow the laws they want to follow. Other wise they break the laws or get them changed.
What idiot will vote for a law (or politician) that is against their own self interest?!? Would you? Would you vote for higher energy taxes if you didn't know or care about PO?
Most people are law abiding most of the time because the laws are set up to accommodate the majority of them. If a majority didn't want a ban on smoking there wouldn't be a ban on smoking.
That is the nature of a democracy. Whatever the majority of people want is reflected in the laws. You cannot force them to live in a manner inconsistent with their desires.
I can't understand why I even have to explain this to you.
Who said I was talking about legislation that would affect the majority?
The sorts of the legislation I was primarily concerned with are those preventing a minority of corporations (who don't vote) from causing excessive environmental damage.
But here's example of why you're wrong anyway: the incumbent party here is proposing a ban on incandescent light bulbs. Now that does affect the majority - most people want the cheapest and most convenient products they can buy, and this stops them. But this ban isn't likely to make the slightest dint in their vote.
The political mood is moving fast enough that within a few years, a government will safely be able propose a law to ban cars with poor fuel economy without risk of voter backlash (indeed, the backlash even now would be minimal - the resistance to such proposals in the U.S. is coming from auto-manufactures, not from pollers). Even though if this means voters won't be able to drive Hummers anymore.
Now personally, I'm against either of those bans: I don't see any need to actually ban incandescent light bulbs or low-fuel-economy cars outright: there are occasions where they make sense. But once the cost of externalities is properly priced in, and fuel is more sensibly priced, their use will drop off, and they eventually may simply become uneconomical to produce.
And yes, I would vote for higher energy taxes (w/ lower income taxes), even if I didn't know about PO, entirely out of self-interest. For a start, I do know about climate change, and don't want to be living, or my kids to be living on an overheated planet. On top of that, I stand to benefit directly, because I already make effects to reduce my energy usage, so the accompanying income tax cuts will go towards paying off the mortgage, as opposed to being necessary to allow me to keep wasting unnecessary energy. It's not that hard to convince people that you're going to give them an extra $50 a week in tax cuts, but raise petrol and electricity prices such that they'll cost the average punter an extra $50 a week. Do they same thing 4 years in a row, and you will start to see people taking energy conservation quite seriously, once they realise how much they stand to profit from it.
What would be the point of taxing consumption if it doesn't eafect the majority?
No, here's why I am right anyway. The majority of people want to ban incadescent bulbs (just like the majority of people wanted that smoking ban). Its a feel good measure that doesn't impact their lives in an signifigant way. That's why the incumbent party is pushing it. It's popular.
Agian you are not going to get people to support unpopular laws. Its in the very nature of a democracy. I don't understand why we are arguing this point.
And I would make a point of introducing taxes on energy in a way that "doesn't impact...lives in a significant way", such as my $50/week in income tax cuts, to offset expected $50/week increase in energy prices.
I agree that trying to introduce laws that are obviously going to be massively unpopular is futile and will likely get you booted out of government - it may well happen to the current government here with their recent workplace laws. So you do it gradually, and in tandem with careful advertising to sell it as a positive thing for most people. The "majority" won't be significantly impacted by the change, but the high-energy users will be, encouraging them to use less. The majority will see soon enough that they stand to gain significantly if they take up energy conservation measures.
Then don't expect to make any sort of signifigant impact on energy consumption either.
And if you can pull that off (doubtful look at the astonishing success efforts at reducing CO2 has been) then you don't need to enforce the changes via legislation which was the point I objected to way up at the top of this thread.
I don't expect the changes to make a significant impact...initially. The changes will accumulate over time as you gradually increase the taxes and people become more and more aware of the methods and advantages of saving energy.
If after, say, 4 or 5 years, the expected savings in energy consumption weren't happening fast enough, you could look at specific legislation to outlaw particularly noticeable forms of energy wastage.
However, in reality it's not going to happen like that. Governments inevitably seem to prefer to legislate first, think later. So we will have laws banning this, mandating that, and burying everything else in red tape. I'd love to think voters would prefer to vote in governments that promised smarter tax reform as opposed to simply more regulation and legislation, but I've seen little evidence of that.
Indeed, higher prices are going to happen anyway (certainly with oil), so the taxation plan isn't strictly necessary - I see the main advantage in being able to speed up and smooth out the process.
And that'd be a great plan if it was 1977 instead of 2007.
But simple conservation on such a minor scale as you are advocating will do nothing.
There are plenty of regions on the globe that would be glad to use any barrel of oil you would save.
OK, for a start, you only need to see a 3% annual decrease in oil/gas consumption to achieve nearly 50% over 20 years, which I personally suspect will be more than sufficient to match expected oil import decline rates anyway - one way or another, high-use oil-importing nations will be forced to cut their usage by about 50% in this time period, the taxation proposal is just a way of encouraging consumers to start early, hopefully smoothing out the decline.
As far as what other regions on the globe do - personally I suspect America will be one of the last nations on the planet that will try to introduce a taxation system to help put downward pressure on demand (the IEA has already recommended it, and from what I've read China & India are both aware of the risks of oil depletion, and how vulnerable their rapidly growing economies are).
So in all probability it will be America that will be desperately grabbing all those extra barrels of oil saved by European and Asian nations, until imports start dropping so quickly that no amount of smooth mitigation is possible.
Having done the test, I get:
Economic Left/Right: -1.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.64
However quite a few of the questions related to economic liberalism were so skewed that I don't think -1.75 accurately reflects my personal view: I'd prefer to see 0, maybe even a tiny bit positive.
economics indicates that if private value and private cost are different than the societal cost, then the government must step in to prevent market failures.
this includes vaccines, police, fire dept, health care, perhaps education, pollution, contract rights, and so forth.
most people don't understand how the incidence of tax affects them, if there is a tax on pollution (pigovean or rights based) the tax will still be distributed between the buyers and sellers of a good. Tax incidence depends on elasticity of supply and demand, with the higher elasticity (the more nessisary a good is, the lower the elasticity) items being spared the greater tax incidence. (taxes on cigs for example, hurt the cig companies more than consumers because consumers, with some effort, can simply quit to stop paying for cigs!) However taxes on food impact buyers more than sellers. Taxes also reduce the size of a market, which is bad.
Most republicans are so far left? right? that they believe in free market everything, where all costs are externalized. In this manner society suffers, because goods with higher societal value than indivdual value are not produced as the societally efficient level.
In general taxes on negative externalities should be used to fund positive externalities, and should be applied with great discretion as to not shrink the market size by a great deal.
a nicer thing to think about is the in the long run everything is more elastic (change can occur) this allows the producer and consumer to alter their habits, IF THE taxes are changed sufficiently in the past. Europe and it's gas taxes are strong evidence that a minimum of probably 5-10 years is needed before real gains are reached from gas taxation.
You confuse "left" with "liberal", where "liberal" essentially means "free-market fundamentalist". Hillary is a liberal, Tom Friedman is a liberal, John Kerry is a liberal, ditto Clinton and Gore. Double ditto Bush and the neos - they are beyond fundamentalists; they are radicals. A person's worth is, well, his net worth.
But that's not "left" in any sense. It's corporate, authoritarian and ultimately fascist or totalitarian.
One of the best examples of this genre is Ben Friedman's book "Moral Consequences of Economic Growth". Thomas Frank, in "One Market Under God" doesn't address Ben Friedman, but takes on the whole uber-meme that is free-market fundamentalism.
Why did the bridge collapse? Because it wasn't privately owned and operated, etc....
The "left" in a political sense means "those who support varying degrees of social or political or economic change designed to promote the public welfare". That DOES get coopted - even a developer of a for-profit prison will talk about how he is promoting public welfare. Corporations always lie, but that is a different story.
cfm in Gray, ME
interesting, but some of the questions seem a little vague.
Economic Left/Right: -4.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.21
What looks interesting is that most current political leaders fall in the upper right quadrant. In the same time I suspect the majority of people if they took the test would be in the lower left or to the center like me.
Possible explanations: being a politician makes you authoritarian by necessity. Being right on the other hand reflects the inevitable influence of big corporations in politics. The final result: looks like there is a total disconnect between political leaders and most people about what values and goals need to be persued... Not quite a surprise, but it is interesting to see it quantified like that.
I'm an economic -6.12
social -6.36
I think you're absolutely correct about libertarians not being fit or interested in leadership. I myself can attest how I hated being a supervisor on the night shift at a small newspaper -- and that really wasn't much of a difficult leadership job. My philosophy is 'don't bother me and I won't bother you'.
Libertarian Socialism shows up on Wikipedia, and the Spanish Revolution was a one-year Libertarian Socialist experiment in 1936.
Employee-owned businesses are a great example of libertarian socialism in the marketplace.
I think the politicalcompass website saying that Ron Paul is on the authoritarian side of the compass is a bit of an error.
Most political figures will rank very high in authoritarianism. Their aim is to dominate. Download Altemeyer's The Authoritarians". John Dean relied heavily on Altemeyer's work for his book "Conservatives Without Conscience". Read it. Read it. It's important.
Full disclosure:
That puts me somewhere out in the Delta Quadrant with Janeway, Q, the Swarm and Gandhi.
I wasn't sure how to answer some of the questions: "Mothers may have careers, but their first duty is to be homemakers." Homemaking is a wonderful career; more men should do it. So do I agree or disagree, strongly?
Authoritarianism vs communitarianism - that's the choice we face in Peak Oil. [At least I'd like to think so in my more hopeful moments.] In some ways, it's the difference between the US Constitution and that infinitely more glorious and null-and-void document, the Declaration of Independence.
cfm in Gray, ME
Economic Left/Right: 4.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 0.10
I didn't realize I was "middle of the road" on social issues. However, I'm in good company with the likes of Tony Blair and George W. Bush on economic issues.
I'm not surprised to see several of you fall into the Communist left. I suspect that you guys think Big Government will save us from Peak Oil and the only way out of this is heavy regulation of all business and commercial activity. Just look how it worked for the former Soviet Union!
The truly free market will solve Peak Oil for us. All Big Government has done is put on more regulations on the energy industry: banning nuclear power, banning wind power, banning drilling, forcing ethanol production, etc.
The only regulations that are necessary for corporations are (a) to control the pollution they generate; and (b) to not mislead the public with false advertising.
Erm...nice attempt at a strawman, but so far I have yet to see anyone in the upper left or even-left portion of the compass. How does having a social rating of -8.92 make me a supporter of "Big Government"? I'm aware enough to know that government has the incentive to misinform, mismanage, and screw us over just as much as other types of concentrated power (such as corporations). The only way we are going to save ourselves from a lot of unnecessary hardship in the coming years is if the populace can manage to take responsibility for fixing its own problems, realize that nobody will solve their problems except for themselves, and realize that the only way to make this happen is to decide on its own farsighted self-interest in a rational and democratic manner and then act on that.
But, of course, the people are idiots. Genetically pre-determined to screw up. Well, if that's the case, then why are we wasting our efforts here on trying to spread peak oil awareness? Basically, if you are one of the disadvantaged in society who recognizes the problems ahead but who is at the same time resource-less and powerless to mitigate against catastrophe without building a broad social response to these problems...then you're screwed. According to this reasoning, it's futile. If you happen to be privileged enough to have the resources to individually prepare for peak oil ($ for land, stockpiles, ammo, solar power, oil stocks, etc.), then I guess it makes sense to come together with the rest of the enlightened peak oil-aware elite and share individual mitigation strategies...but for most people, such discussion is irrelevant. If you think that you can guard against peak oil problems by appealing not to the masses (who actually have an incentive to change course), but instead to "the powers that be," you are barking up the wrong tree. Most politicians simply do not want to change course--they have little to lose by not doing so; at worst they will find cozy positions as lords in a new society of privation, pillage, and practical serfdom (and meanwhile the oil companies and oil states can sell their dwindling oil supplies very dearly, setting them up to be the major investors and owners in the next era's dominant form of energy). Politicians risk losing $$$ from their corporate backers, and what do they have to gain from calling for intensive peak oil mitigation? Even if a politician was truly well-meaning or "benevolent," what power would such politicians have against the establishment's consensus, against corporate power? But in any case, appealing to the "enlightened benevolence" of philosopher kings or U.S. senators does not add up to a peak oil mitigation strategy with any significant probability of success. More often than not, "benevolence" is trumped by self-interest, and this time is no difference. So, unless "the masses" really can act in a democratic, rational, and collectively-beneficial way when faced with peak oil problems (at least potentially, even if they struggle to do so now under the weight of corporate disinformation and demoralization), I am screwed. You are screwed as well, unless you have the resources to implement individual solutions and thus become one of the "pruners" instead of "one of the prunees" (like me).
So, why are we investing our time and effort on this website? For me, I'm trying to equip myself with the knowledge to set the stage, little by little, for a dramatic social shift in favor of rational peak oil mitigation in a way that benefits ME. (And then, to make it practical, I need to figure out which of these solutions that benefit me also benefit the majority of everyone else so that we have enough power to bring the common plan to fruition). That's how I approach the peak oil discourse. I don't know about some others, though.
You seem unaware of economic history, even recent history. In the northeast US electricity production was highly regulated. There was a mandated fixed percentage above the growth numbers required by all producers to build. This was met consistently and the northeast had few electrical issues once this system went into place in the early 1970s. When deregulation hit, in the first 5 years afterwards, the corporations barely made a few percent above the old buffer number and in the second five years not at all. Thus they cannibalized the resiliency of the system for greater profits.
What you fail to understand is that free markets are good at producing efficiency but efficiency is not always the goal. Sometimes reliability and resiliency is the goal and this costs more! But corporations, being insane people, only focus on profit, not on long term goals other than profit. This is precisely why corporations must be regulated in different markets. The level of regulation is directly related to the level of resiliency and reliability that we seek versus the corporation's ability to maximize efficiency for the sake of profits.
Note: I consider corporations insane because they have legal personhood status under the law but any flesh and blood person who exhibited the behaviors of a corporation would be considered psychopathic.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
completely agree (though it is straight from The Corporation)
Political compass didn't give me the option of breaking up the foreign corporations. Remember, Kucinich didn't privatize the muni. He was right and he had to wear a bullet-proof vest during that time. We need lots and lots of munis [replace the foreigns - bring the footprint local].
Unless I can't take money out of my savings this week because of the meltdown, I'm buying a large and uneconomic amount of PV array and aim to pick John Howe's excellent brain for advice. Resiliency is survival. Not that when people are shooting each other for food it will help....
cfm in Gray, ME
regulation of natural monopolies should be the perview of the government to prevent market failures as seen in the telecommunications (phone+internet), rail business, water, and electricity.
Any market which is dominated by network effects (the value of the network grows exponentially with the number of additional nodes) is a natural monopoly. Imagine that owning rail lines between 2 cities is not that great, but between 3 cities is awesome, and so on and on.
natural markets always give way to market failure because incumbents have huge advantages given to them by the network effect. Therefore the incentive to combine into large monopolies is big, very big.
I am much happier being in the segment with Gandhi, Mandela, and the Dalai Lama, than I would be if I was in the same quandrant as Hitler and Bush.
Of course, I am not happy about even being on the same planet as Bush.
Economic : -7.12
Social : -7.08
So I'm a libertarian, anarchist, leftist, communist. Wonderful. Do I need to add my name to the blacklist, or is it done automatically for me?
Social 5.88
Economic - 2.28
I would not have expected to be to the left economically, but it's anyones guess how they weigh the factors.