![]() | Oilwatch Monthly - August 2007 | The Oil Drum: Europe | Saving 20 million barrels a day. The 100mpg hybrid car should be here, now! | ![]() |
56 comments on Open Letter to Duncan Clarke
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
56 comments on Open Letter to Duncan Clarke
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Blogroll
- ASPO The official site of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas.
- Energy Bulletin Clearing house for news regarding the peak in global energy supply.
- PowerSwitch Dedicated to raising awareness & discussion of the impending & permanent decline of cheap oil & gas supply.
- ODAC Oil Depletion Analysis Centre working to raise awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem.
- Global Public Media Public service broadcasting for a post carbon world.
- Post Carbon Institute Learning to live in a low energy world.
- PeakOil.com US site and forum to educate and promote awareness of global hydrocarbon depletion.
- FEASTA The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability
- Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) This website describes an effective and fair response both to climate change and oil/gas depletion
- Aleklett's Energy Mix Global Energy Systems, Peak Oil, etc
- www.SamassaVeneessä.info Finnish peak oil site
Other Blogs
User login
Personnel
Editors
Contributors
Peak Oil Primers
Archives
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
Vital Trivia
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.




GAIA Host Collective
If only such logical argumentation made as much difference as it should.
-Don
Peak oil refuters often claim that peak oil proponents are cassandras, histrionic, etc. However, histrionics rather than reasoned argument seem to be common to many in this debate. I have yet to see adequate refutation of the main peak oil evidence: patterns of increased production, followed by peak and decline in nation after nation. Peak oil is not "just a theory." There is empirical evidence. It is ok to admit that some peak oil proponents have been premature or have made faulty prediction based on inadequate evidence. Despite apparent peak of C & C in 2005 and all liquids in 2006, it is unclear whether or not production can be increased in the future. I believe it is not warranted to declare peak as there have been plateaus, declines and subsequent increases in production in the past. There is a range of predictions for peak with the vast majority between 2005 and 2020. I don't know about you, but I consider 13 years as an outside figure to be rather imminent, requiring urgent response. The price of being wrong is much higher when one goes with peak refuters than with peak proponents. If you respond as if what the peak oil proponents suggest is a likely outcome, then you will most likely choose a course which will deter climate change. The evidence for human contribution to climate change is clear and convincing. If you respond as if the peak oil refuters predictions are accurate, you risk being wrong on both energy and climate change. Overcoming denial requires more than evidence: the only thing I can think of is to keep beating the drum.
Ad hominems are the last resources of denial.
Cassandras? I call myself a Cassandra, and proudly so. Cassandra was never believed but she was always right! Calling peak oilers cassandras is to pay them the highest complement. It is an admission that they are correct but nevertheless not believed.
Ron Patterson
"It is ok to admit that some peak oil proponents have been premature or have made faulty prediction based on inadequate evidence."
I prefer to err on the side of caution mainly because the infrastructural changes will take so long to incorporate.
As an anology, imagine a sinking ship.
If the ship is sinking and one person says it will remain afloat for an hour and one person says it will remain afloat for 10 hours, assuming all other variables equal, when do you board the lifeboat?
And if there aren't enough lifeboats, when do you start making more: immediately or at 9:59?
Let add in a large storm that is approaching. Do you leave in the boats for the safety of the shore now or when the storm arrives?
It is sad to see that people erring on the side of caution are being used by Cornacopians as a way to discredit caution.