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Thank you , Professor Goose. I think that the cyclone coverage was a high water mark for theoildrum. The only flaw I saw was in our post mortem work, I'm not sure how much of the last run up in oil prices to a $70 base is as a result of the Cyclone Gonu, but I suspect its in there, and that the fine analysts we have here could quantify it.
We are getting1.3mllion barrels of oil per day from the Gulf of Mexico, and some proportion of our total imports of 14.25 MBOPD comes through the region, probably more than 1/3rd. A week's interruption in this is going to be disasterous, and any storm entering the Gulf is likely to interfere massively. As we know, the reserves aren't there. The time for the DOE to make them available as a loan is today to not have a huge problem. And thats not going to happen.
Bob Ebersole
Another wave coming off Africa. Not as much moisture but spinning nicely.
I did call Dean last Friday 3 days before the TD4 designation.
This time of year, all you have to do is look for a spinning low coming of the Cape and then switch to the air moisture image. If the low is surrounded by gray, it's a likely candidate. If the low is surrounded by black, go back to sleep.