I was changing it as you typed it GZ. :)

I am watching the damned radar loop and she's now well north of Corpus Christi in her current movement and if she continues that way she'll come ashore somewhere near Lake Jackson, which puts her in Houston's lap. Now this is not a hurricane or at the very worst a Cat 1 but the question is how much rain will she dump AND will Dean follow her right up the same slot? If Erin soaks the ground to the point that we are having runoff issues in SE Texas and Dean hits as a Cat 3 or better into the same region a few days later, well, we have a small nightmare on our hands here then. And while the plots are way way way preliminary, Dean is shown to come ashore somewhere between Houston and New Orleans as a Cat 3 to Cat 4.

I think the evacuations won't be over once Erin passes but will remain in place until Dean hits and passes. And remember that we are right now at historic lows in gasoline stocks, just barely over MOL. Wait til we have to evacuate east Texas or Louisiana.

Advice to friends here at TOD who live in Texas or Louisiana - FILL UP YOUR TANKS NOW AND KEEP THEM TOPPED OFF FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS!

The last thing you want is to get stranded out of gas if a Cat 4 is bearing down on you.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

GZ
I'm from Galveston, about 50 miles N.E. of Freeport/lake Jackson on the"dirty" side of the storm.. The winds aren't ver dangerous from a tropical Storm, but the floods and water can be amazing. In TS Allison about 5 years ago we got as I recall about 30", yes, 2 1/2 ft of rain. There was one in Alvin that gave up nearly 4 ft in a 24 hour period in about 1979.

The main thing to remember, in a bad flood ,stay put. Keep you car parked somewhere above the street. Its not worth it to lose your life or even just your car. Also, If you can't see the curb on a flooded street, don't drive into the water. If their are other cars flooded out on the street, you might not make it either. So just pull up on the sidewalk or the grass on the median, that extra 18" or two feet might make a difference. Flood control designs the streets to hold water so the drainage doesnt get overwhelmed, call Harris County Flood Control today and ask if you don't believe me.

And, don't let the ninnie TV weathermen make you panic. If you aren't in a flood plain and if your house didn't flood during Allison, its unlikely to flood. About 30 people died in that panicked evacuation during Rita, including a friend of mine. He had cancer, got stuck in the traffic on I-10 and died with his wife driving. If he'd stayed home he would have been fine-his house didn't flood. So his wife spent hours sitting in their car with his body, and it could have been avoided. I drove from Galveston to Houston and stayed with my 81 year old father on the 2nd floor of his senior citizens center, as he was too ill to evacuate. I parked my car high in a parking lot of a strip shopping center about a block away, there was no problem.

I was raised in Houston, I've lived on the Gulf Coast all my life. I've never lost a car to flood waters, or been more than inconvenienced Bob Ebersole

Bob, as you know this has been the rainiest summer since mid late 50's. Summer of 79 brought us TD Claudette, Chocolate bayou overflowed and Alvin was flooded. The ground is saturated. The nearest high ground we could find was on 528 near sunset meadows, what a mess that was back then! A little more steady rain falling around Houston will cause flooding.