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A little more on Dean...
Stormtrack posted an update late last night. Dean was weaker than expected, but is expected to strengthen. Some models are predicting it will become a Cat. 5.
It's still way too early to determine where landfall will be, but I guess the worst case scenario for the oil industry would be the GFDL model, shown in blue here.
It sure looks to me like it's on the Canterell express.
We'll lose "our" million plus barrels a day, but because Boca Raton is safe, we'll celebrate and oil prices will fall.
Excuse my bitterness. I realize the Fed needs to bail out the banks, especially since this is where I've chosen to keep my money, but I just know the Billionaires of the world are popping champagne bottles everywhere at their triumph over Bernanke.
Who wants to go into business with me selling Greenspan Bubbles? "After a long day of lobbying your Senator for tax breaks, soak in a warm tub with Greenspan Bubbles! Wash that stench of the poor people away!"
The rich are not rich because they are smarter or cleverer -- though many of them are.
It's because they own the money machine.
The old aristocracy of rich landed gentry is gone, as is the "gift" economy of the North American tribes (Kwakiutl, etc.)
The successor to both: the "market economy" --in both its capitalist and "socialist" forms-- seems on track to being the most destructive agent on earth since the K-T boundary event bolide.
The coming dust-up with Iran will force China and India to choose "sides" -- and lo! WWI is living history.
We live in interesting times. I suppose there is a chance for this to come out better than it seems -- if people stop choosing the ways of abuse and violence. And for that to work, we have to give up fear.
Impressively worded, NLNG, a terse summary of the only two drivers of the market, greed and fear.
But if we are able to relinquish our fears personally or at community scale, what are the odds that nations ever will? How would leaders lead without cannon fodder?
It may be that we all have to wait for Armageddon and Jesus to return, or it may be that energy supplies will run out and the market economy will just be history after the manner of Tainter(http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Archaeology/dp/... ).
Or just possibly, the human brain can claw its way out of the fog of fear -- brain by brain -- and people will choose a different paradigm. They can't be forced to do it; that is for sure.
You know, there have probably been half a dozen hurricanes that struck the Yucatan in the last decade, very few of which went on to cause systemic problems with Cantrell. Lets not hype up the danger, shall we? Any hurricane that comes from the Carribean would have to cross over several hundred miles of land just to strike, and it wouldn't have enough time to power up again before it ran aground in Mexico for a second time.
In the other hand, if it slips through the slot between Yucatan & Cuba (as some models predict), then all the platforms off the TX coast will be sitting like bowling pins in front of a bowling ball. How many of those can stand up to a Cat 5? We may find out next week.
I'm talking about a Cantrell strike only. Of course, you took the opportunity to 'hype it up' even further by suggesting its going to strike the oil producing regions of Texas. Since when were you a weather man?
Many of the models have Dean doing just what WNC is suggesting. Suggesting is not hyping. All he did was to just point out, without claiming to be a weatherman, that there is this possibility, which there clearly is.
A lot of our pollyannas on TOD have been getting real touchy lately.
The new GFDL: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081712-dean04l&field...
Apparently you aren't a weatherman either, are you? Pay attention to the changing plots, and maybe take the log out of your own eye before you criticize the speck in someone else's.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
After it swamps Cozumel it will weaken and the leading edge won't do much but stir the surf off the western edge of the Yucatan. But again who knows.
It is days like this where we all get jumpy thinking of doom and gloom, or the other side, Non-doom and Non-gloom, or maybe a mix of the two, that we all get a little testy.
I have written disaster Sci-Fi for almost 30 years, mostly short stories, a few book length stories where aliens do a number on us and it is not ourselves that did it. I like watching "end of the world" type movies. I guess you can call me a Hard-Core doomer. But again we don't really know how it will all end up till after the dust settles. We only give our Personal "best guesses" with whatever our normal leanings are, doom or non-doom, or a mixture. Most people can't stay at the edge of their seats for more than a few days, really only a few hours without going a little nuts in the process.
If you find yourself wanting fuss and fume at someone, step back and don't post for a few minutes, let the steam burn off. It helps keep things civil around here.
Best wishes, Charles.
You guys both missed the biggest target. If this thing ploughs into OilmanBob's backyard and takes out Texas City, you might as well get out your bicycle.
> but I just know the Billionaires of the world are popping champagne bottles everywhere at their triumph over Bernanke.
I doubt that very much since despite the discount window rate cut, bond spreads continue to rise across the board. Real estate inventories are still climbing, as well as deliquencies and forclosures. Lending standard are still tighting and new LBOs are coming a fading memory. In the grand scheme, its meaningless.