<DrumBeat: August 19, 2007 The Oil Drum The Economics of Oil, Part I: Supply and Demand Curves (Detached Comment Thread)>

161 comments on Hurricane Dean Update and Resource Aggregation Post

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westexas on August 17, 2007 - 12:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If memory serves, Rita was initially projected to hit the Texas/Mexico border, and it ended up hitting close to the Texas/Louisiana border, so at this point I would think that the GOM assets are facing some very real potential risk.

I suspect that it is a question of when--and not if--that the the GOM assets get hit this hurricane season.

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Roger on August 18, 2007 - 4:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

WT,

The danger for the GOM is there, but it takes at least another 2 days before we have a clue were Dean is gonna hit:

IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK TOWARD JAMAICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
THIS...WITH THE TRACK DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. AFTER THAT...UKMET...GFS...AND
CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE GFDL CALLS FOR A MOTION
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND NOGAPS CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO..

Roger from the Netherlands

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westexas on August 18, 2007 - 12:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm no hurricane expert, but in the "what if" department, what if Dean does show the same kind of turn that Katrina and Rita showed:

Katrina
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s12

Rita
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s18

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Prof. Goose on August 18, 2007 - 12:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yep. It's going to be all about the "turning winds"...if Dean runs into a strong upper westerly (which is prevailing), then he'll turn...right now the shear forecast is relatively moderate, or so they're saying over at easternuswx.com.

Latest Dean thread:
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=140133&st=320

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161 comments on Hurricane Dean Update and Resource Aggregation Post

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