<Hurricane Dean's Impact on Oil InfrastructureThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: August 21, 2007>

135 comments on UPDATED: Cantarell and Questions Regarding Mexico's Oil Infrastructure

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Korg on August 21, 2007 - 12:53am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

What are the odds of a DIRECT HIT on Canterell at the worst possible time for the US?? Canterell may not recover. Why rebuild it if its in terminal decline? Just let whatever's left get the oil out at whatever rate it can....

Let's see here....2005 GOM oil production smashed, yet to recover fully....now Mex production smashed......Me thinks the odds are tooooo great for this to be coincidence..

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Prof. Goose on August 21, 2007 - 1:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I am trying not to think about the fact that there's no way the folks built those rigs to withstand Cat 2 winds in the Bay of Campeche.

But I am also trying not to think about the human toll of this storm. It absolutely wrecks me.

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SacredCowTipper on August 21, 2007 - 1:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Professor,

I'm digging now trying to get current information on Dean. Did it actually cross Cozumel? Do we know exactly when? If the tide was in and its a 914mb storm the island is only 45' tall at its highest. How much storm surge comes with pressure like that?

If this came to pass at high tide Cozumel could very well be Mexico's New Orleans. There are 71,000+ permanent residents and if they can't have evacuated all of them.

-SCT

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PigglyWiggly on August 21, 2007 - 1:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It hasn't made landfall yet. The recon just measured 905 mb.

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SacredCowTipper on August 21, 2007 - 1:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Where can we get current position and speed, preferably with a map of the area? The tracks I've seen so far put it going right over the top of San Miguel.

Oh, and Wikipedia says they took a direct hit from Wilma in 2005 - took the top 5' off every tree, ruined the sewers, basically scrubbed the island bare. And now they'll be getting it just as bad, if not worse, and that is before knowing if they'll be taking storm surge, too.

Lets hope their government is more competent than ours at dealing with such events.

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Prof. Goose on August 21, 2007 - 1:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Best place to look is easternuswx.com or wunderground.com (Jeff Masters' blog). They're the real weather geeks and they're talking about this all night, guaranteed.

Fly the flag a little whereever you guys go. We need news tips on this story, especially on those rigs and infrastructure.

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SacredCowTipper on August 21, 2007 - 1:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Cozumel 20.30' 86.57'

Dean 2100 GMT 18.2' 84.2'
Dean 0300 GMT 18.4' 86.0'
Dean 0900 GMT 18.6' 87.8' (estimate)

Closest approach estimate 0800 GMT (as I post) - 1.75' x 1.25'- roughly 2 degrees or 138 miles? No surge, no eye, but still quite the mess.

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Nordic_mist on August 21, 2007 - 1:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It is possible that many of the older rigs (drilling rigs) have not been designed to withstand a high category hurricane. However most of the newer production facilities (production platforms and FPSO) on the KMZ field have been designed to withstand cat. 5 hurricanes (100 year hurricane).

http://www.offshore-mag.com/display_article/295832/120/ARTCL/none/VESSL/...

Similarly moored installations remained in operation through both hurricanes Rita and Katrina. Although production will be shut in for a few days as a precautionary measure, production should be up again within 24 hours of the hurricane passing.

Older installations on the Cantarell field will clearly be affected to a greater degree.

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Charles on August 21, 2007 - 2:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I've found once a hurricane is big that the best predictor of its future intensity over water is the TCHP:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

While it's a foregone conclusion that it will wallop the Yucatan, once reduced over land it may not strengthen much over the Bay of Campeche, based on the TCHP. Of course that's not to say that it won't be strong by the time it reaches Cantarell...

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Mr Ghawier Downing on August 21, 2007 - 10:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Pemex provides 40% of public revenues.

_FT, LEX column, Aug 10, 2007

I would think that the government has a pretty good incentive to fix what it can.

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