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203 comments on DrumBeat: August 27, 2007

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davebygolly on August 27, 2007 - 5:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Proof you won't get, except from the passage of time. But the scale of the event is what is crucial. I made a mistake in saying $20+ trillion in paper is held -- that's the total market value (at peak) of the US housing stock. But some significant part of that is mortgaged. But that peak value is rapidly disappearing, not simply because of defaulting mortgages. Also playing into it is what we are all aware of here at TOD -- peak oil. This too will lead to a complete devaluation of US housing stock, especially suburbia, but not just. The failure to expand would be bad enough, because this is what allowed the extraction of equity. But with decline, not only will extraction of equity cease, mass consumption and therewith all other sectors of the economy become involved. Further, the housing Ponzi scheme is not the only one that's been going on. The hedge funds and the LBO's are a whole other area, but I've followed it much less carefully.

Paint me a picture whereby things end up other than quite disastrously. Please.

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Gene on August 27, 2007 - 6:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Paint me a picture whereby things end up other than quite disastrously. Please."

Screw it. Disaster is good. It cleans out all the bs. Bring it on. I no longer give a shit.

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SacredCowTipper on August 27, 2007 - 7:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Disaster has often been the lot of humans in this world. This century we've largely whipped infectious disease, done amazing things in terms of food production, the continental U.S. hasn't seen a land war in a century and a half, and we've gone forty years without a land war involving large numbers of citizens. We're totally, completely, utterly spoiled compared to how 99% of humanity has made their way in our history.

Instead of recognizing this boon for what it was we did what every spoiled rich child does - binge, binge, binge. Now the trust fund is down to a small three digit number and we're looking around trying to figure out how to have another great big party. This will not happen.

The only peaceful road out of this is a Ghandi caliber leader who can turn the whole world from material consumption to things of an intellectual and spiritual nature.

So ... we're basically screwed.

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AlanfromBigEasy on August 29, 2007 - 9:12am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Paint me a picture whereby things end up other than quite disastrously. Please

I hope for nothing worse than post-Katrina New Orleans for the USA post-Peak Oil.

If we work quite hard we can limit suicides to x6, overall mortality up only 50%, population density tripled in viable housing with most housing uninhabited, very limited health care, transportation, food supplies, erratic water & electricity, skyrocketing crime and a "Don't Give a Damn, You know they deserved it" attitude by the rest of the world.

Best Hopes,

Alan

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203 comments on DrumBeat: August 27, 2007

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