In fact some OPEC nations show a slight increase almost every year. I guess that in some cases about 1.1 barrels of oil magically appear in the ground for every barrel pumped out.



This is the Fractional Reserve Petroleum Production System. It is based on Fractional Reserve Banking. Once OPEC get the same leverage the west enjoys with financial products all of our problems are solved.

It might be useful so do some more numbers. That 1% increase cost a whopping net $158 billion. Yes, of course that is simplified, but still....


Global oil reserves up only 1% last year
Canada's Oilsands Sole Booster, Study Says

Record global oil and gas profits of US$243-billion and record spending of US$401-billion have resulted in a marginal 1% increase in world oil reserves last year -- all of it coming from a 1.9-billion-barrel addition from Canada's oilsands, according to a new study.

PROVEN RESERVES GROWTH REMAINS SLOW AS CAPITAL COSTS RISE.

It would be interesting to do a plot of capital cost (which is increasing exponentially) per bbl of added oil reserves (which is increasingly linearly). It would probably only take a few years before you have it requiring more than the entire GDP of the planet to add one additional bbl of oil to reserves -- which obviously isn't going to happen.

Recede, you pot of gold! Off with the little green guys you go.
======
Speaking of which:

Eni's fading Caspian dream shows shades of Sakhalin

Eni will have to renegotiate the production-sharing agreement that governs the distribution of Kashagan's spoils. Therein lies the problem, because since its discovery, Kashagan's honey pot seems to be receding further from view.

A target of oil production in 2005 was pushed back to 2008 and is now expected in 2010. Costs have ballooned for the project's first phase from $10-billion (U.S.) to $19-billion, leaving the Kazakh government's reasonable expectation of tax returns disappearing beyond the horizon.

To add to Eni's troubles is the collapsing value of the U.S. dollar and soaring procurement costs. The lifetime capital cost of the project has soared to more than $100-billion and the scuttlebutt in Kazakhstan is that Eni's project design was flawed. The Italians will plead for leniency and patience but they will have to curb their expectation of a high return.