The historic debates on whether and by how much the energy gain of ethanol was positive have been a red herring. Irrespective of that bottom line, the other limiting inputs to corn ethanol make it far inferior to gasoline. Even if cellulosic ethanol lives up to its claims of higher energy return (which I find doubtful because the initial ethanol solution is less concentrated than with starch ethanol) it will still have the scalability problems of other limiting inputs.

But it is natural to want to find a 'replacement' for something, in fact we are conditioned to do so. In the end, changing our way of life and moving away from the internal combustion engine will serve us much better than scaling up land, material, soil and water inputs to create an inferior fuel. But it will take time for this message to sink in, because its a very difficult one (at first) to accept.

I'm mostly concerned about water. David Pimentel told me the Kreider study seriously understates the amount of water needed for corn ethanol, which is presumably a boundary issue which Im trying to suss out.

About 10.2 kg of corn is required to produce 1 gallon of ethanol. The average water requirement per kilogram of biomass is 1,000 liters. In Pimentels latest water paper they report that 650 liters of water are required to produce 1 kg of corn. This means 6630 liters of water for just the corn in 1 gallon of ethanol - or about 1754 gallons of water. And still a little more water is required in the fermentation and processing operation.

Water, like oil, is seemingly cheap, unless one lives in Western US. As nasty as oil and gas production are, they at least limit their environmental impacts to small land areas relative to biofuel production.

Systems analysis at the highest levels of government needs to address the linkages between water and energy. Fully 50% of our nations water use goes to the energy sector already. If we scale non oil and gas energy sources - what will this mean for water? In the end I think most of us would rather drink than drive...

Logically, it seems silly to try and shove the sun through a corn cob to get energy.

If we use solar power directly, we would get durable energy at an affordable price. If all the highways in the US had 20 feet of solar collectors over them, we would harvest 27 Quads (10 watts/square foot); an amount equal to the energy currently consumed by transportation.

Using JPods instead of cars, replace moving a ton to move a person and strive to move only the person, we can cut the energy budget to 6.8 Quads (5 for oil, .8 for JPods).

The solar collection creates a surplus of power of about 6.2 Quads. The collection is 1.4 million miles of JPods rail with solar collectors 8 foot wide.

There is a synergy between the distributed nature of the transportation grid and the distributed energy from sunshine.


Thomas Edison, 1910:
"Sunshine is spread out thin and so is electricity. Perhaps they are the same, Sunshine is a form of energy, and the winds and the tides are manifestations of energy.”

“Do we use them? Oh, no! We burn up wood and coal, as renters burn up the front fence for fuel. We live like squatters, not as if we owned the property.

“There must surely come a time when heat and power will be stored in unlimited quantities in every community, all gathered by natural forces. Electricity ought to be as cheap as oxygen...."

Historical Curiosity: I wonder what our world would look like today if Edison had teamed up with Eistein based on Einstein's 1905 proof of Quantum Mechanics based on the PhotoElectric Effect. Sunshine and electricity might cost nearly the same.

It also seems likely that burning food in cars that are less than 1% efficient is environmentally as unwise as burning oil. In normal commuter travel, cars have a Parasitic Energy Consumption (ratio of moving mass to mass of cargo and passengers) of about 300.

There is no energy crisis. Government planning and monopoly of transportation and energy has brought us to where we are. If we wish to have a different future than Peak Oil and Global Warming we need de-monopolize energy and transportation as we de-monopolized communications in 1984.

Germany broke the government monopoly of energy with the policy where anyone can be a power company, sell surplus electricity to the grid at 20% over cost to buy. The result is an explosion of innovation and 100,000 new jobs in the solar industry.

To create environmentally sound transportation and energy, we need an environment that allows creativity.

bill.james@jpods.com
It costs less to move less

By your argument an electric bike would be even better than a JPod, since it uses even less energy to move even less mass.

I love electric bikes, but I can't see American auto traffic switching from cars to bikes without going through a scooter phase first. It would be too dangerous to mix bikes with 70mph SUVs.

Your point that photovoltaics waste less energy is correct, if we forget the energy it takes to manufature and maintain photovoltaics:

http://news.scotsman.com/scitech.cfm?id=1279972007

There will be a lot of niche solutions. Electric bikes are a great solution for many uses.

Carrying luggage, elderly, children, families, cargo and other transport needs may not be ideal of bikes. The primary niche for JPods is highly repetitive travel less than 30 miles.

I do not know how everything will turn out but do believe the sooner we implement a diverse set of options the more durable our economy will become.

bill.james@jpods.com
It costs less to move less

A step up from an electric bike would be to get a GEM glorified electric golf cart. Seats four, some cargo, range of 40 miles. When I commute to work, I don't take the family or cargo. Recharge the battery from solar panels if you want.

I would like to see a 48 VDC electrified line that any and all light electric vehicles can tap into. They can bill you for what you use. If I got a bike and you got an electric locomotive, we can both tap the same power rail but your bill will be bigger than mine.

RobertInSantaBarbara

I haven`t escaped from reality. I have a daypass.

I think there will be a great niche for golf carts also. We plan that personal JPods can drop onto a golf cart frame for last mile solutions.

A key issue for the golf cart market will be safety on high ways with mixed vehicle traffic. Morgantown PRT has logged 110 million injury free passenger miles.

The ability of JPods to travel in a different plain than current traffic has speed, safety and capacity benefits. Automated travel provides mobility regardless of age or ability.

I second your motion for a dedicated right of way for light electric vehicles.

RobertInSantaBarbara

I haven`t escaped from reality. I have a daypass.

bmcnett:
I am also eager to see more development for just plain bikes, as well, or electrics that attach/detach easily. I'd like to see commuter trains built with 'Biker Cars' (and Biker Bars?), so we can have 'intermodal commuting' .. your legs do the first-mile and the last-mile, easy!

re: The Scotsman article..
This was in Drumbeat a few weeks ago. I'm afraid it hasn't improved much with age.

Here is my first of a handful of comments below that unfortunate article;

"..."according to a study by scientists"

"The research was carried out by a team in Greece.."

Who is this reporter? Daniel Parker needs to connect this claim to a trackable group or institution for this article to have any meaning. This is as fresh as the Foreward in Michael Crichton's 'State of Fear', which claims that, tho' fiction, the work represents the findings of 'real scientists at real universities'. Oh my!

According the the US's NREL, or National Renewable Energy Labs, a solar electric installation will recover its embodied energy, including the aluminium and other 'balance of system' (BOS) components in 2 to 5 years, depending on which technology is used plus other particulars. Anything that requires a fuel input to operate is, by definition never able to recover all it's energy inputs, since they are continually being added on top, while pollution is spilling out the backside.

They don't mention the advantages that we can get from rooftop solar to gird against the increasing likelihood of grid failures (I'm assuming for UK, the US is certainly lagging), whether caused by intense weather conditions or underinvestment in maintenance, probably both. Distributed generation, with both Solar and Wind will help to level the loading on the wires so that overcapacity disruptions (meltdowns) can be lessened, and remote areas can continue self-generating when key links have gone down.

Here are two links with some checkable findings..
http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/20theuropvscbarcelo...

http://ge5.green-e.org/myths/Myths-Solar.htm

Best Hopes for responsible reporting!
Bob Fiske

-- should be noted from the NREL study that the best of these panels can recover their embodied energy in about one Year, when you're not counting the BOS components.

Bob Fiske,

You're right that the Scotsman article is weak. Your first link is broken, too.

Your second link asserts that PV panels pay back their energy investment in a few years, but doesn't explain how. I'm meant to assume that this is usable energy captured from a day of average length. I'm going to need a little more information before I can decide anything. A Googling I go.

Bryan

Here's Wiki's statement. The NREL link was clipped, but I can't find it there right now..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaics

Under the EROEI section
" Crystalline silicon PV systems presently have energy pay-back times of 1.5-2 years for South-European locations and 2.7-3.5 years for Middle-European locations. For silicon technology clear prospects for a reduction of energy input exist, and an energy pay-back of 1 year may be possible within a few years. Thin film technologies now have energy pay-back times in the range of 1-1.5 years (S.Europe).[42] With lifetimes of such systems of at least 30 years, the EROEI is in the range of 10 to 30. "

" Logically, it seems silly to try and shove the sun through a corn cob to get energy. "

I LOVE this sound bite! Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

" Logically, it seems silly to try and shove the sun through a corn cob to get energy. "
Gene said,
I LOVE this sound bite!
It's good alright, and combined with the Edison quote referring to solar/wind,
“Do we use them? Oh, no! We burn up wood and coal, as renters burn up the front fence for fuel. We live like squatters, not as if we owned the property."

These two quotes just about says it all, don't they? :-)

RC

Nate,

I broadly agree with your analysis. When one considers the resource inputs, especially water, corn-based ethanol does seem like an environmental war crime.

But I wonder why you don't take it to the next level. Why don't we ban high fructose corn syrup? Given that this foolish corn-based ethanol quest is recent and may well be short lived, the syrup seems like a greater offender.

It seems the the best solution here would be better pricing of water resources. If your figures are correct, which I assume they are, I would assume that subsidized water supply to corn farmers is as much the problem as anything else.

The problem is that it is very difficult to separate uses of corn. In an ideal world, maybe water used for nutricious foods (corn, flour, etc) would have a low tax. Corn dogs and popcorn a bit higher, corn syrup and ethanol the highest. Removing subsidies for ethanol is obviously the right first step, but if the goal is to better use our natural resources, there are other culprits.

Anyone who rants about how destructive our vehicle based lifestyle is, but eats more than a few ounces of beef per day, or drinks soda, would appear a tad hypocritical.

Precisely!
Anyone on this list who hasn't should read Omnivore’s Dilemma. Polan barely talks about ethanol but spends several chapters on corn and how absurd our big agribusiness system is. Adding fuel to the mix only makes it a little more absurd because very little of the cultivated acreage of the U.S. is devoted to directly feeding people, much less to fueling vehicles. The majority of corn goes into cow-feed and soda pop, neither of which is smart or necessary. Seems to me that long before we have to choose between growing food or fuel, we will have to choose between fuel and Pepsi, call it the “New Pepsi Challenge” if you like. Already, due to “peak soil” we are in reality faced with a choice between soda and food, and healthful food and marbled beef. The fuel or food dichotomy, at least in North America, is a red herring.

Hi Jack,

I really like your points here. I wonder if there is any way (time?) to do some analysis and quantify...I suppose it might not be too difficult, if one were to look at money flows of the corn syrup industry, and then look at percent water use of total ag use this represents. (Still would be some work, though.)

Also, do you have any idea about numbers - annual production numbers: HF corn syrup v. ethanol?

re: "subsidized water supply to corn farmers" and "...corn syrup and ethanol the highest..."

The thing is, it seems like one could make the exact same argument for, say, packaging of all kinds. In this case, it would be oil and/or wood products (?), as opposed to water. They use more resources - (?)- than say, bulk grains from bins at the co-op, - though, too, might be a wash, if people use plastic bags to weigh out unpackaged items.

Addressing this in a positive way...how complicated. If you don't tax the corn farmer, but you then tax the "value-added" food products corp. - what's to say? People might end up still going for fast food.

Still, it's a good idea.

re: "there are other culprits."

So, what do you think? A plastic bottle tax? Ban? Ration fast food?

Edit: The graph w. "Dry weight, pounds per capita per year" is interesting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_fructose_corn_syrup

It looks like the Avg. American consumes right around his/her weight in sweeteners each year. (?)

Also, do you have any idea about numbers - annual production numbers: HF corn syrup v. ethanol?

I don't have figures, but will try to look them up and make a rough approximation. The problem may be getting all the conversion figures (corn the corn syrup versus corn to ethanol). As I mentioned, I did a rough calculation, which I posted some months ago, showing that 5% of global fuel use and current sugar production are roughly similar is scale.

I am not a huge supporter of ethanol, but can't for the life of me see why poor small scale farmers in Thailand (where I live) growing sugar cane for ethanol makes people irate while growing the same sugar for Pepsi seems to be fine.

The thing is, it seems like one could make the exact same argument for, say, packaging of all kinds. In this case, it would be oil and/or wood products (?), as opposed to water. They use more resources - (?)- than say, bulk grains from bins at the co-op, - though, too, might be a wash, if people use plastic bags to weigh out unpackaged items.

I think this is right too. I sense that the big difference is that reducing waste allows us to continue "life as it is now". Since for some "life as it is now" seems to be the problem they are fighting against, reducing waste is a low priority - or in fact could be negative.

In this regard, ethanol, as a tiny part of a bridge to a new way of continuing with our lives, is the target of much more venom than piles of useless plastic bags.

I am not unsympathetic to either argument. I would love to see mankind transition to a completely different and better way of life, but I don't belive in throwing out what we have and just hoping too many people don't die on the way to an imagined salvation.

I do think we need to look in a quantitative and analytical way at the various waste with our system and find ways to reduce it. Improving the energy efficiency of civilization is one way to cope with the shrinking efficiency in energy production.

I do believe we are near peak oil and that there are no easy answers. However, I also believe that hard answers are still answers. I do think that trying different solutions and seeing which work is what is going to get us through this problem.

I have never seen a convincing argument that proves mankind couldn't, in theory, live just as happily on half the energy we use now. I expect the reality will be much more painful, but I don't thinkit is futile.