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170 comments on DrumBeat: September 2, 2007
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170 comments on DrumBeat: September 2, 2007
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Felix CAT 3 strength already - probably updated at 11.
NOAA jet reporting back 129 MPH winds(131 is CAT4), eye wall closed and eye visible.
98L still tracking west with good circulation but constrained by dry air and shear. That will diminish in the next 48-72 when it will likely form into a TD.
Far too early to be sure of either tracks so won't speculate.
Felix is pretty much guaranteed to become a major, 98L has potential.
Back to your regular scheduled programming. :-P
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007090200&field=Se...
Models can be wrong but you always have to cringe when one does this...
The models of 98L are not very nice either :/
Felix...now forecasted to be CAT5..definite....given the time before land fall.
Looks like Felix will be more destructive than DEAN...
For those that think this is a poor hurricane season:
6 named storms
2 hurricanes
BOTH MAJORS.
Still 9 weeks of peak destruction on the way. Not so poor a season. Maybe for the USA so far, but that can change (not that I wish it).
98L still looks good for the 7th named storm and another major, IMO. Models show a more northern course for 98L.
Sept 10th, is approx the mid of the season...so 7 named, 3 hurricanes(iff 98L develops). They predicted 13-16 named, 6 hurricanes, and ONLY 2 majors.
They look right on target.
BTW, For those watching Felix the tropical discussion has it turning north after crossing the Yucatan...but still days out.
The Peak of Hurricane Activity is this week. Good luck with seeing another 8-9 storms...
So we are halfway through hurricane season and halfway to the predicted number of storms.
Do you ever have anything useful to post or do you just like bloviating?
So PartyGuy, are you more of a global warming denier or a peak oil denier? With Category Fives becoming routine occurrences for the first time in history (two in the Gulf, one on Taiwan), both these activities must take more and more of your precious time away from explaining that Iraq is completely different than Vietnam - whoops, I mean that Iraq teaches us the lesson of why we should have kept the Vietnam War going forever.
But keep doing what you can to buy another Friedman unit for a system and ideology that has turned like AIDS against the very liberties that it claims to defend. I say, the sooner we collapse, the sooner we start learning how to govern ourselves (in multiple senses of the word) again.
I agree that the flow of category 5 storms in the Atlantic basin is a new and disturbing trend, but I would caution you against drawing in any information about Pacific storms for these discussions. There is certainly warming there, but it'll be much harder to tease out signal from noise, as the Pacific is bigger, warmer, and has fewer barriers, both in terms of land mass and upper level air flow, unlike the Atlantic/Caribbean complex of seas.
I'm neither. I'm only urging you to show a bit of caution, instead of going all out on the doomer predictions that make us look silly and drive people away. PO is becoming more and more mainstream, but its not because of people like you who automatically call anyone who isnt in lock-step agreement with you a denier and a moron...
Not ANYONE. He called YOU a denier and a moron. Start referencing links. Show documentation. Prove him wrong. (If you need someone to show you how to copy and paste, I'm sure someone on this site would be willing to help you.)
He more than likely read what I wrote below calling him ignorant. But ignorance is vastly different so I linked information to him to explain how serious the canes are.
Not to mention his comments made me quite angry given the death toll we are looking at here.
I agree with you. As best I can see he is just a Troll. He never supports anything he says with links, references or documentation. Most every position I have ever seen him take is contrary to referenced documentation provided by the position he is opposing, never countering it with anything other than his rants.
That is my experience also.
Hurricane Felix put on an incredibly ferocious burst of intensification last night, winding up into a small but potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. Felix now holds the record for shortest time for an Atlantic storm to intensify to Category 5 strength. Felix required just 51 hours to reach Category 5 strength after it started as a tropical depression. That is a truly remarkable intensification rate, considering most tropical cyclones take 3-5 days to organize into a Category 1 hurricane. The tracking coordinates for Felix show that it has spent more of its life at Category 5 strength than any other classification.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum...
IS the 2007 the year that G*D has chosen to batter CANATRELL?
It looks (Models show) another major hurricane heading straight across the Yucatan at CANATRELL.
WTH? What are the odds...really?
This one may be more direct a hit and a stronger storm...as the long range models have it still a strong CAT1/2 coming across.
Anywho...really...what are the odds?
FELIX...another soon to be retired name.
And we all know how the predictions of Dean being a strong Cat 3 when it hit Cantrell turned out!
Hey...who cares. I am not making the predictions...just echoing the forecasters here for those that care.
Dude seriously do you not study history? Or are you just ignorant... There is several factors that come into play that the models cannot adjust for. As of right now it seems a large majority of the models I have looked at say felix is a cat3 and the models said cat 2 hitting not 5.. People are wrong models are wrong...
Main message here is PREPARE FOR THE WORST!!! hope for the best or you are going to be up the creek without a paddle. I have seen myself personally what these storms can do during my childhood growing up in Florida and experienced a cat5 landfall of Andrew destruction.
If you had common decency you would be praying for whatever folks are in the crosshairs as their day is about to go bad.. If it hits where predicted slows down as the NHC says right now we could be looking at 8000+ people dead. Lighten up man sarcasm gets you nowhere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fifi
Yeah its that bad.. Mudslides and what not do it in good just like Haiti.. Look at the power of Fifi too.. cat2.. Although you do not need high winds for incredible destruction Allison shall point that out too go look it up.
Higher than you might expect. For reasons they are only just beginning to understand, it's not unusual for hurricanes to follow similar paths, during a season and even across seasons. For example, a few years ago, the hurricanes were all going up the eastern seaboard. They've slowly been shifting west. Remember that year when a bunch of them hit Florida? Then we had the Gulf in the crosshairs a couple of years ago. Now they've shifted even further west.
...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...
625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
=====
From: CalculatedRisk
9/2/2007 8:06:33 PM
RECON Aborted. Too much turbulence. Wow.
You know we sit here and discuss these monsters...category 5 hurricanes and just discuss the predicted paths and impacts on oil infrastructure, but these beasts really just hypnotize me...they are fearsome, but somewhat beautiful in their symmetry. They are easy to grasp from a satellite photo, but to make the leap down to the level of reality, I'm not sure I can fathom the experience.
You will have to excuse my tangent...I grew up in the Midwest where tornadoes were a constant fascination...if you've ever seen one...they will freeze you in your steps for a minute or so...then you snap out of it and run.