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170 comments on DrumBeat: September 2, 2007

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SlicerDicer on September 2, 2007 - 12:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007090200&field=Se...

Models can be wrong but you always have to cringe when one does this...

The models of 98L are not very nice either :/

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PeakTO on September 2, 2007 - 5:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Felix...now forecasted to be CAT5..definite....given the time before land fall.

Looks like Felix will be more destructive than DEAN...

For those that think this is a poor hurricane season:

6 named storms
2 hurricanes
BOTH MAJORS.

Still 9 weeks of peak destruction on the way. Not so poor a season. Maybe for the USA so far, but that can change (not that I wish it).

98L still looks good for the 7th named storm and another major, IMO. Models show a more northern course for 98L.

Sept 10th, is approx the mid of the season...so 7 named, 3 hurricanes(iff 98L develops). They predicted 13-16 named, 6 hurricanes, and ONLY 2 majors.

They look right on target.

BTW, For those watching Felix the tropical discussion has it turning north after crossing the Yucatan...but still days out.

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PartyGuy on September 2, 2007 - 5:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The Peak of Hurricane Activity is this week. Good luck with seeing another 8-9 storms...

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Rethin on September 2, 2007 - 11:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

So we are halfway through hurricane season and halfway to the predicted number of storms.

Do you ever have anything useful to post or do you just like bloviating?

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super390 on September 3, 2007 - 1:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

So PartyGuy, are you more of a global warming denier or a peak oil denier? With Category Fives becoming routine occurrences for the first time in history (two in the Gulf, one on Taiwan), both these activities must take more and more of your precious time away from explaining that Iraq is completely different than Vietnam - whoops, I mean that Iraq teaches us the lesson of why we should have kept the Vietnam War going forever.

But keep doing what you can to buy another Friedman unit for a system and ideology that has turned like AIDS against the very liberties that it claims to defend. I say, the sooner we collapse, the sooner we start learning how to govern ourselves (in multiple senses of the word) again.

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SacredCowTipper on September 3, 2007 - 1:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I agree that the flow of category 5 storms in the Atlantic basin is a new and disturbing trend, but I would caution you against drawing in any information about Pacific storms for these discussions. There is certainly warming there, but it'll be much harder to tease out signal from noise, as the Pacific is bigger, warmer, and has fewer barriers, both in terms of land mass and upper level air flow, unlike the Atlantic/Caribbean complex of seas.

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PartyGuy on September 3, 2007 - 4:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm neither. I'm only urging you to show a bit of caution, instead of going all out on the doomer predictions that make us look silly and drive people away. PO is becoming more and more mainstream, but its not because of people like you who automatically call anyone who isnt in lock-step agreement with you a denier and a moron...

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Cid Yama on September 3, 2007 - 8:41am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Not ANYONE. He called YOU a denier and a moron. Start referencing links. Show documentation. Prove him wrong. (If you need someone to show you how to copy and paste, I'm sure someone on this site would be willing to help you.)

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SlicerDicer on September 3, 2007 - 10:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

He more than likely read what I wrote below calling him ignorant. But ignorance is vastly different so I linked information to him to explain how serious the canes are.

Not to mention his comments made me quite angry given the death toll we are looking at here.

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Cid Yama on September 3, 2007 - 11:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I agree with you. As best I can see he is just a Troll. He never supports anything he says with links, references or documentation. Most every position I have ever seen him take is contrary to referenced documentation provided by the position he is opposing, never countering it with anything other than his rants.

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Engineer-Poet on September 3, 2007 - 12:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That is my experience also.

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mtnlion44 on September 3, 2007 - 1:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hurricane Felix put on an incredibly ferocious burst of intensification last night, winding up into a small but potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. Felix now holds the record for shortest time for an Atlantic storm to intensify to Category 5 strength. Felix required just 51 hours to reach Category 5 strength after it started as a tropical depression. That is a truly remarkable intensification rate, considering most tropical cyclones take 3-5 days to organize into a Category 1 hurricane. The tracking coordinates for Felix show that it has spent more of its life at Category 5 strength than any other classification.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum...

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170 comments on DrumBeat: September 2, 2007

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