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69 comments on The Amazing Power of King Hubbert(...?)
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69 comments on The Amazing Power of King Hubbert(...?)
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Question please. I have no qualification to comment.
If the U.S. Government and its allies succeed in eliminating all opposition to their policies in Iraq, and at the same time, succeed in transforming, co-opting or eliminating opposition in Iran, thereby allowing "efficient" market forces to develop the Persian Gulf region -- then what will be the effect on the total world production of petroleum and gas? Does it change the total URR? How long could present production and consumption proceed in the absence of meaningful opposition by the Arab and Persian worlds? Would a total U.S./European/Corporate victory really be meaningful to the folks who are promoting the war, or would it be a Pyrrhic victory at best?
Another way of asking the question is, if I want to keep driving my SUV and heating my McMansion, am I better off paying foreign powers whatever they ask for their oil, or am I better off paying my taxes to the American Government to go get it for me? Does anything we do make any difference, and is there enough oil in the Middle East to justify all the killing and destruction?
For some time, I have been expecting Bush/Cheney to come out of the "Peak Oil Closet" and admit that they want the US keep a large US ground force in the Middle East, in order to "protect" Middle East oil fields from takeovers by Iran and/or the terrorists. As they tiptoe out of the Peak Oil Closet, I actually expect Bush's domestic approval ratings to slightly increase.
If the US is disliked now, just wait until the US starts using the implied threat of military force to ensure that crude oil keeps flowing to the US (which has twice the per capita energy consumption as the EU).
In regard to the supply question, the big problem is the Export Land Model, where the combination of declining production and rapidly increasing domestic consumption in exporting countries, will cause a crash in exported liquids.
So, I recommend the following:
ELP Plan (April, 2007)
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2007/04/elp-plan-economize-localize-prod...
Electrification of Transportation
http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html
Streetcars 100 Years Ago
(if we did it in 1908, why can't we do it in 2008?)
http://www.familyoldphotos.com/tx/2c/chadbourne_street_trolley_san_an.htm
Like you I can see Bush/Cheney tiptoe out of the "oil closet" but not the "peak oil closet." Denial of peak oil is required to send the message that sacrifices in the Middle East will be followed by another period of prosperity identical to today. This message is required to rally consumers behind a long-term military presence in the Middle East.
I would take the view that no amount of oil can justify the killing of 600,000 or more Iraqis, plus the propping up of ruthless dictators in the Middle East and Central Asia, to the great cost to the peoples of those countries.
Is driving an SUV to Wal-Mart that important? Three Days of the Condor indeed.