Reallistically, solar and wind will continue to increase for a very long time at their present very high growth rates, and these growth rates will increase from their very high levels if the price of the fossil fuels continues to increase from their present very high levels.
We are not going to die due to lack of energy. We may die from fighting over the last barrel of oil, though, if we continue to elect idiots and ideologues.

" We may die from fighting over the last" windmill and solar panel.

Hi,

I hope solar, wind and water are able to continue increasing.

If you get a chance, track down David Brin's short story The Postman. One of the interesting speculations of the short story was what would happen to all the little survivalist refuges outfitted with windmills and solar panels during a major collapse of civilization. Brin suggested that they will be fought over until they are all smashed in a desparate chance to control them. It's not a pretty prediction.

While some may criticize his predictions as mere speculation, look at what happens to property during civil wars when order breaks down and KAOS reigns. Look at the pictures of the former Yugoslavia from the 1990's with it's burnt out buildings, smashed and wrecked cars, downed powerlines, ripped up roads and railroads, hungry dogs and mass grave sites. In combat situation, property a shield. At -40 below, fine chippendale furniture and ancient tomes burn all so toasty for keeping one warm. And when folks are hungry, men and women both will kill and women become prostitutes. And speaking of sex, are people in poverty able to afford/find/use condoms. NO! Do I need to go into what is happening with AIDS infection rates in war torn subsaharan Africa?

My hope is that the people will be rational enough to allow first rationing and then mobilization at the early stages, and finally wholesale lifestyle changes at the later stages to get through this crisis. We have had a history of rationing and mobilization. I think we can change our lifestyles but it will take time and leadership. And as this is America, if the lifestyle shift occurs, it will be with a lot of grousing, complaining, carping, whining, stamping of feet, redbaiting, threats and scenes of violence.

The alternatives is letting lose the 4 horsemen.