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So here I am ready to engage in the most serious Chess game of my life, for all the marbles.
I have studied books on Openings (a must to be at all competitive). I have studied strategy and tactics. I have studied combinations and traps. I have studied the use of tempo, a fine point many ignore. I have analyzed games by the masters.
'My 60 Memorable Games' by Bobby Fischer has become my bible.
The game begins, relatively boring for the first dozen moves or so, both parties know the book moves. This game has been studied for centuries. The body of work is extensive. But then one player makes a departure from the literature, he thinks he has discovered something enterprising that may catch his opponent off guard. He starts setting up.
He will not make a direct move that indicates his true desire. It would be quite easy for the opponent to counter if he figures out the goal too soon. So the departure move is a fake, to mislead only.
In one of the games in the above mentioned book, it becomes clear that Mr. Fischer made a move early on in a game who's real purpose did not become evident for ANOTHER 17 MOVES!!!
He went on to win the game and the championship series that it took place in handily.
By being devious. And thinking farther ahead than his competitor.
I would think at this point it would be obvious that if you take any utterance of any of the participants at face value, you might as well fold up your board and go home.
It must make the behind close doors meetings extremely interesting, to say the least. Yes, no one can trust anyone else.
Yes, Bush says this and he says that. What does he really mean? I don't know. Likewise the other players comments, I don't know what to believe and what not to believe. I only no for sure not to take at face value any single thing they say.
They are moves on the board and more probable than not, setup to provoke a particular response for sometime later in the game.
Friendship between US and KSA? I don't know about that one, but I can see a certain mutuality of interest at this point. There is no guarantee that this exist, no. Nor that if it does that this will continue later into the late middle game or end game.
But it does rather seem to fit so far.
All quite fascinating, eh?
I like the chess analogy you use. Remember, Putin is an excellent chess player. With all the big players right now there are really two games going on simultaneously...the over, above the board game and the covert, under the board game.
KSA - USA - Overtly, they are maintaining their agreements made years ago at the birth of the Petro Age. Covertly, I would not be surprised if KSA has been nurturing stronger ties with other ME and Asian countries in case their pals in the USA allow this country to fall apart. They will throw their weight behind the top dog when the time comes.
dragonfly -
As a hopeless 'patzer', I like your comparison to chess.
It's a good reminder that when these people say something, it may or may not be true, but you can be certain that what they say is always intended to further t their agenda.
Regarding the way that Russia and the US approach this mess, someone recently said that while the US is playing poker, the Russians are playing chess. I guess what's implied is that the former is full of bluster and bluff, while the latter coldly calculating many moves ahead.
I find the notion that George W. Bush can think 17 moves ahead to be totally ludricous. I doubt his ability to think one move ahead. The man is a blithering, criminally incompetent fool. The analogy is one that will find support, no doubt, in the conspiracy-minded community but not elsewhere.
And yet hes president...and your not. Oh the irony lolz!
Ein Gott, Ein Reich, Ein Fuhrer.
ET: If the guy is who you say he is, he has inexplicably managed to make an unprecendented amount of money for his cronies. What a mystery.
I find the notion that George W. Bush is actually in charge of the United States to be totally ludicrous.
The man is clearly a puppet, and barely fit enough for even that limited role.
Bush doesn't have to know a darn thing, even how to play the game. He just has to be able to parrot the words fed to him. Convincingly would be a nice plus, lol. Heck, have Bushie act weird just so no one takes him seriously. You can be sneaky right out in the open then.
Think Rand Corporation and the other think tanks that have been around for decades, buildings full of supercomputers gaming the situation full time, over and over. TPTB and their advisors jockeying for position, all with an ax to grind.
At this point, I don't think there is a single variable that could change that they haven't gamed to death already. If not they are incompetent and need to be replaced.
Chess is a beautiful, complex game, the Game of Kings. I actually was quite good at it at one time. Led my high school team to the Minnesota State Championship. Played 1st board every match (no one could take it away from me, and boy they tried, hehe) and never lost a single game in match or tournament play for 3 years. I was within 150 points or so of Master, probably would have made it in another year or so if I had continued playing tournaments.
This oil thing has even more variables, so fascinating, and I believe very apt analogies can be drawn from Chess.
When you see one of the players trumpeting to the press, what is he doing? Telling you the truth? Yea right...
No, he is saying something for a reason. He may be establishing a position for a move further into the game. He may be setting you up for a combination. He may be setting a trap for a player he doesn't like. You just don't know for sure. He may just be trying to take your eye off of something else, a distraction.
Like Chess, all you have is the pieces on the board for sure. Look at what your opponent does, not says. Analyze as objectively as possible. It is best if YOU move in such a way that he has to respond to you, thus dictating the flow of the game to your best advantage while you develop position. You can make an opponent's strategy meaningless if you beat him to the punch.
Use your pieces to their best advantage. Get your Rooks out of the corners and into the game, pair them up, use them, they are the most powerful pieces on the board next to the Queen. The US has a military machine that is unmatched at this point. You think they aren't going to use it?
However, don't look for the overt or obvious reasons behind moves. Be devious, like Fischer, look for the deeper possibilities. Misdirection can be extremely important, the longer you can fool your opponent, the less able he will be to respond effectively when he discerns the main threat.
The main real tool the Saudis have is production. Let's see what they say this week, and then wait to see if they really follow it up afterwards, lol. This time lag between words and action in this part of the game is tiresome, but can not forget what they say, have to see if their actions later are real.
Production increase? Don't bet on it, I don't think they can for more than a very short period, a few months at best maybe. What excuse will they have this time? Outside Opec projects coming online? Ethanol stealing volume from crude? Refining capacity bottlenecks? How about blaming it on the oil sands? Market well supplied?
Yea right to all of the above. Give us something new for the talking heads to cuss and discuss, please.
Or maybe, increase output a few hundred K bpd and trumpet to the world about how much spare capacity you have. Would not be at all surprised by this. Surely they have a little spare capacity left and this could give their mouthpieces in the MSM some real ammo to put the hurt on us POilers.
I would love to be on the inside in this game. I think I could maybe even contribute meaningfully if given access to all the facts. Without putting my Rooks in harms way. Sometimes the threat of a move can be better than the move itself.
In one of the games in the above mentioned book, it becomes clear that Mr. Fischer made a move early on in a game who's real purpose did not become evident for ANOTHER 17 MOVES!!!
I don't play these games because every move has implications down the line, and once you realize this, whatever charm the game has, will completely go away.
:)
Ahh, but that's what makes it so interesting, the depth. This isn't a checkers game we have here folks. This is the real McCoy for all the marbles.
No actual depth, as these are all human-contrived rules. About as interesting as working permutations to no real end.
Think Rand Corporation and the other think tanks that have been around for decades, buildings full of supercomputers gaming the situation full time, over and over. TPTB and their advisors jockeying for position, all with an ax to grind.
I agree Relayer,
This is the point that I don't think everyone understands or under values it's meaningfulness.
I think we should suppose that they know extremely well that we are in the End Game of the Growth Paradigm strategy economic model. I think each of their endings resulted in a Collapse.
If that is true, then you would try to stear and position the ending process to your best advantage.
Look at today's events thru that lens, Not the "They are total idiots, Can't they see....." viewpoint.
Exactly, don't make the mistake to presume anyone involved here is stupid. They've made it to the top of the heap haven't they?
Boy I hope there is something waiting for us besides collapse, but you just don't bring your Rooks out too early in the game. They are vulnerable to being threatened by lesser pieces and may force you to make responses in undesirable ways. It could mean that we are closer to the endgame than we think.
I have the terrible feeling that lesser worldwide population is somehow in the cards.
Case in point...that big, fat rook sitting there in Iraq being swarmed by a bunch of pawns.
relayer
thanks for this chess analogy and the idea of bringing the rooks out early. I've long felt that Afghanistan and iraq were horrible tactical maneuvers, unless peak is right now. will the next rook come out in Africa? or can a bishop and knight handle that?
anyway thanks
I don't know how much you guys saw of your President's performance at the APEC taxpayer funded extravagansa, but he's not a very good parrot & at face value seems like a complete imbecile. He even referred to the event as "an Opec meeting".
Some whiz has probably put a bunch of his mis-takes on youtube i'll have a look.
Actually imbeciles can be cute & childish, psychologically inert fits him better.
...or the lens on the political left that is pissing me off right now for its naive stupidity: "Bush & Cheney are evil psychopaths that live to bathe in the blood of the innocent" or some riff on that basic line of thought. It's one of the things that switched me off to DailyKos and made it more of a once-every-now-and-again-Kos for me.
Isn't it just a LITTLE BIT possible that things are a LITTLE BIT more complicated and less manichaean than this? Isn't it just a LITTLE BIT likely that there is some sort of logical line of thought and reasoning behind the decisions of those in power today - whether you agree with the decisions, or the execution or think it's all wrong for so many reasons - rather than them just wanting to kill as many people as possible, with no rational reason behind any of their actions... drives me nuts.
One of the reasons I like the contributors on here - having an awareness of Peak Oil and the coming complications thereof helps people understand that there is more going on than the childish political reporting and debate in the US nowadays.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Did you mean 'Machiavellian'?
But I agree that the conspiracy theorists on so many sites do little to advance rational discussion. I think Bush and Cheney have their own agenda and have little regard for the numbers of people who are killed as a result, but I don't think they desire to kill people. They are just extremely efficient at rationalizing the deaths and destruction (collateral damage in the war on terror that the terrorist started, necessary consequences of the need to spread 'democracy', or whatever).
What in the world are you guys talking about? As a country, as a society, what differentiates the USA? It is about getting the money, period. Has GWB successfully made a fortune for his cronies, Yes or No? Conspiracy theorists, desire to kill people? Why do you think GWB's father continues to work hard- to advance the general welfare of the planet? Open your eyes.
No, I mean Manichaean... completely different thing. Basically splitting the world into good and evil (and of course assuming oneself on the side of good).
I thought i'd post a dictionary or wikipedia link to the word for you - but even better I found this Wikipedia entry on Manichaean Paranoia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manichaean_paranoia
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
RA--
Thanks for the link; I always appreciate learning new things. And yes, that is a much more appropriate word for Bush and his camp.
Rick
Chess is a limited game. Computers are already getting up to speed in it. Life, however, more resembles the complexity of Go.
but the point stands - the canonical form of the problem is the same... ultimately it's a highly complex calculation... and by understanding the likely outcomes of one tree or other better than your opponent, and pushing them down that tree, is a great challenge...
so it's a good analogy for what's going on here...
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Very true. To start with, chess has fixed rules. Life is a bit more complicated than that surely!
There is, theoretically, no role for luck in chess - how different from the real world.
I read once that a Chinese Emperor sent a Persian Shah a chess set. The Persian returned a backgammon set with words to the effect of "this is more like it". I searched on Google but could not find a reference.
Oh yes, life is much more complicated now and then. This situation for instance.
But the logic and analogy does stand I believe. What one player does means much more than what he says, etc.
There is till some luck in Chess, sadly, the luck of which opponent you draw for a game in a tournament for instance.
But yes, that was one thing I liked about it, minimal chance involved. You start out equal, fixed rules, just you and the opponent. Who will come out on top?
If there were such a game it would probably prioritize efficency in energy use since that must gives more options to play successfully in any direction. Burning thru your stores ASAP withouth getting anything for it must be like avoiding making good deals, a way to bankruptcy.
Bravo Relayer, well said.
I would add that your words apply just as well to the Global Financial board game also.