 | Lord Oxburgh Warns Oil Demand To Outstrip Supply | The Oil Drum: Europe | ASPO 6: Have we reached the tipping point? |  |
User login
Personnel
Editors
Contributors
Peak Oil Primers
Archives
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
Vital Trivia
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
If my math is correct, it looks like Saudi liquids consumption increased at 9.3% per year from the first half of 2006 to the first half of 2007.
If memory serves, Euan roundly criticized me for using a 2007 estimated rate of increase in consumption of 10% for Saudi Arabia.
This 10% estimate was partly based on a communication I had from a (non-Saudi) source in Saudi Arabia who told me that the Saudis were going to have to divert, over the next two years, 500,000 bpd of liquids production to domestic consumption, because of the ongoing shortfall in natural gas production--which is why the Saudis are talking about importing coal.
To be fair, my source also thought that most of the Saudi production decline was voluntary. To some extent, I suppose that a lot may turn on the definition of "voluntary." If the water cuts in some wells were getting horrific, perhaps part of the production decline was "voluntary."
WT: Your ELM would have been even stronger if the USA had not destroyed Iraq. Who knows how high domestic Iraqi consumption would be right now without the destruction of the Iraqi consumer? Conspiracy alert: another possible motive for the invasion/destruction- WT's ELM. Dead ahead: the Iranian consumer. Hopefully it will be a while until you guys get to the Canadian consumer.
I warned the Canadians a few days ago that they may become part of the "Axis of Evil."
Doesn't the Iraqi case indicate that this strategy will likely be unsuccessful as the cost of rebuilding and maintaining control over the infrastructure is too high? In the case of Iraq they may be consuming less, but their production and exports are way down too. If the undeveloped world has indicated anything it seems to be that infrastructure cannot be maintained in areas where residents have nothing to loose by destroying said infrastructure and have everything to gain by stealing either production or the infrastructure itself.
Curious as to groups thoughts here?
With the amount and quality of the oil in iraq, i think even starting over from scratch with infrastructure would be more profitable than many of the projects that are active these days.
And I think the people who are behind this crap don't care if the oil is accessable now, they just don't want a strong society in iraq that can control and god forbid use the oil themselves.
After another decade of war in the area, with a few hundred more tons of DU spread about, they might not have much of a problem with insurgents bombing oil infrastructure.
This is an excerpt from my recent Net Exports post (note that I am assuming some type of fourth quarter increase in Saudi production, which IMO, if it occurs will be temporary):
Westexas,
You said,
"If my math is correct, it looks like Saudi liquids consumption increased at 9.3% per year from the first half of 2006 to the first half of 2007."
Something I have been wondering....if the Saudi's extract crude oil, and then instead of shipping it out in bulk, use it in their own refineries and industries, and ship out the finished product, does that count toward "Saudi liquids consumption"?
I am not familair with how they count, or how we count them on that issue, any info will be appreciated....thanks....
RC
The EIA defines consumption as Total Liquids consumption, inclusive of refinery gains (although refinery gains don't yet appear to be a big factor in many exporting countries).
I've put it this way, ignoring refinery gains and transportation costs:
Assume that Export Land, EL, produced two mbpd, and shipped two mbpd to Import Land, IL, for refining. Each country consumed one mbpd. So, EL's net exports would be one mbpd and IL's net imports would be one mbpd.
If EL refined all of their oil, and exported one mbpd of product to IL, EL would still have net exports of one mbpd and IL would still have one mbpd of net imports.
WT, thanks for the clarification....I know that the U.S. has lately been importing gasoline stocks like crazy over and above the crude imports....it still amazes me that Europe for instance will export gasoline, as cheap as we sell it for at the pump! (?)
RC