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70 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - September 2007
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70 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - September 2007
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GDP is the value of all goods produced or imported during the year. Of course, that value is measured by market price, so if some good doubles on price during the year a factory producing it contributes twice what it did at the previous year while producing the same.
The GDP is corrected by inflation, what reduces the problem of using market prices. But any correction is useless when your inflation statistics are fake. Even with real statistics, that still pose some problems.
Also, the GDP measures only what was produced, and during a single year. It doesn't measure depreciation, for example, what leads to the broken window falacy. It also can only price what is comercialized.
But keep in mind that I may be wrong on some details, since I also am not an economist. I just think it is interesting and study it a lot.
I like the broken window parable but in the case of oil its worse the original window cost 6 Francs but because of spiraling oil costs its now 20 Euros :)
No but seriously replacement costs for a lot of items will probably double at least over the coming years. In effect this means say in 10-15 years we will have less than 50% of the infrastructure we have in place today. This could easily be conservative. I expect the number of roads in good condition to be practically nonexistent in 20 years for example.
Whats interesting is its pretty easy to see that infrastructure will quickly decay to African levels whats hard is to understand how it goes. Africa decayed fairly rapidly after the end of WWII.
I think once you see local governments going bankrupt then state government the infrastructure will nose-dive.
This is commons infrastructure but this applies to any durable goods in general they won't be replaced but repaired then abandoned.
Whats fascinating is that our cookie-cutter style economy with tracts of houses strip malls etc is effectively like a mono-culture subject to a blight that can readily wipe out most of the "crop". The lack of diversity will ensure once maintaining a certain amount of infrastructure becomes untenable it will probably be abandoned quickly.
You often hear the phrase "to big to fail".
I think its really so big that when it fails it destroys everything.
See? The GDP will grow like a rocket!!!
Quite right. In 1998 the lowest spot price for brent crude was around 9.80$, today it stands at 77$. Not yet as steep as in Memmel's example but still very impressive.
IMO, based on current deterioration models for NE US roads, no roads in 'good' condition in 20 years would be associated with a scenario in which:
i. Current heavy truck volumes are maintained.
ii. Demand maintenance, preventive maintenance and capital investment almost cease.
Consider also that desired flexible pavement treatment cycles are approx. 12 years. Significantly longer for rigid pavements.