<Sixth Annual ASPO Conference – Cork, IrelandThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: September 16, 2007>

147 comments on A Tale of Two Speeches--OPEC's Demand Side Fear Is Very Real

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Rethin on September 15, 2007 - 8:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I worked this out a while ago, and keep reposting it as it keeps coming up. Turns out its really not the silver bullet some claim.

Lets use Tesla's numbers here
http://www.teslamotors.com/learn_more/energy_efficiency.php?js_enabled=1

If we use NG as an electricity source we get a well to station (I assume your outlet) efficiency of 52.5% The Tesla has a vehicle efficiency of 2.18Km/MJ so we get an well to wheel efficiency of 1.14km/MJ.

Crude oil has a well to station efficiency of 81.7%, A prius has a vehicle efficiency of .68 giving us a well to wheell efficiency of .556km/MJ.

But the Tesla number comes from using NG as an electricity source. NG makes up only a tiny fraction of our electricity sources (from the chart posted below) and is used mainly for peak generation. If we use the average effeciency for a thermal electric plant, 31% we get a much different number for the Tesla.

The average thermal electric plant has a well to station efficiency of 31% The Tesla has a vehicle efficiency of 2.18Km/MJ so we get an well to wheel efficiency of .67km/MJ.

.67 for the Tesla is only slightly higher than the Prius at .556.

So if I did that correctly (and please correct me if I didn't) it comes down to how you generate the electricity.
So I'll put the question to you, how do you propose to charge all these EVs (and I guess PHEVs as well)?

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robert2734 on September 15, 2007 - 10:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

California gets half our electricity from natural gas. Assuming NG electricity is not so valid for the USA as a whole but maybe Tesla plans to market in silicon valley. For now.

Anyways the efficiency of gasoline powered cars don't matter if there is no gasoline.

I plan to charge all these EVs during the day with solar panels. How do you plan to fuel all those hybrids?

RobertInSantaBarbara

I haven`t escaped from reality. I have a daypass.

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Rethin on September 16, 2007 - 4:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Anyways the efficiency of gasoline powered cars don't matter if there is no gasoline.

True.

I plan to charge all these EVs during the day with solar panels. How do you plan to fuel all those hybrids?

Most vehicle use is during the day. Its tough to charge your EV during the day.

Most schemes I read plan to charge these EVs during the night on wasted capacity (coal plants don't shut down quickly so often are left wasting power overnight). And that was what I originally wrote the above for.

Solar has severe drawbacks for charging at night.
If I got to make the decision I'd go for nuke and wind.

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robert2734 on September 18, 2007 - 7:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Most vehicles are driven to work during the day and left in the company parking lot for eight hours. Google already has solar powered recharging stations for employees with PHEVs.

RobertInSantaBarbara

I haven`t escaped from reality. I have a daypass.

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Nick on September 18, 2007 - 11:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

robert2734's comment is good. The thing is, the average vehicle is parked 23 hours of the day, and 90% of the time it's offstreet.

It's just a question of putting a connection at that parking space. It's done in Canada & Minnesota at parking meters & garages for engine pre-heating.

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Pitt the Elder on September 15, 2007 - 11:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Mostly true, but mostly beside the point.

When discussing massive numbers of electric cars, the typical concern is the additional generating capacity that would have to be added to power them. When adding new generating capacity, what matters is the efficiency of new generating plants, not the average efficiency of the decades-old ones that make up the grid now. Accordingly, the relevant efficiencies to consider really are the higher ones.

Moreover, electric vehicles are qualitatively better than gas-powered vehicles in the sense that they're much less constrained by fuel type. Peak oil is often described as not an energy crisis but a liquid fuels crisis; without that reliance on liquid fuels, electric vehicles are fundamentally different in peak oil terms.

So I'll put the question to you, how do you propose to charge all these EVs (and I guess PHEVs as well)?

With whatever's convenient, since they're not at all picky about fuel type.

One of the benefits of wide-spread plug-in vehicles would be a wide-spread network of batteries hooked up to the grid. Those would be exceptionally useful for smoothing out wind and solar PV generation more cheaply and efficiently than by adding pumped storage.

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Rethin on September 16, 2007 - 4:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No disagreement here. Like I said, it all comes down to how you charge these EVs.

We are going to have to parallel deployment of large ev fleets with huge investments in elec generation and grid capacity.

My fear is this is going to come too little and too late.

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Nick on September 16, 2007 - 5:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"We are going to have to parallel deployment of large ev fleets with huge investments in elec generation and grid capacity. My fear is this is going to come too little and too late."

We won't need new generation and grid capacity for night time charging for at least 10 years, and wind can easily grow to the size needed in that time.

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