15 comments on Lord Oxburgh Warns Oil Demand To Outstrip Supply
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Thanks, Chris!
I agree with Lord Oxburgh as shown in the forecast below. I think that production has hit plateau now and that oil prices could reach $150/barrel by end of 2010. Demand could outstrip supply in the next few months.
click to enlarge, updated for 0.5 mbd OPEC quota increase and for IEA Sep 2007 OMR. For a full forecast please click here
However, in an interview with Barron's today
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB118981092541828147.html?mod=9_0031_b...
Rothman of ISI group
http://www.isigrp.com/corp/dec2005/miker.jsp
thinks that oil prices will go to $US45/barrel. I don't think so...
Ace,
since the two demand/supply lines can never diverge by so much perhaps it would be a good idea to dash them and re-label as something like "Unconstrained Demand Projection" and "Estimated Supply Projection"...
[IMO: Efficiencies of usage and outright demand destruction in places that cannot afford $100+ a barrel is going to bring the top line down towards the horizontal and growth in biofuels, GTL, CTG and other sources is going to raise the lower line. The stresses of trying to keep these two lines together will snap at some point. Recession will cause the upper line to sink but any price reduction will be temporary...]