<DrumBeat: September 17, 2007The Oil DrumOilwatch Monthly - September 2007>

24 comments on UPDATE: Greenspan Clarifies. Well, kinda.

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ResponsibleAccountable on September 17, 2007 - 9:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You know - sometimes things seem so obvious when others point them out.

Of course - they don't really need to go take all of Iran... just a sort of Guantanamo base on the peninsula overlooking the straights...

Oman is friendly right? Then take a swathe of the curve from around Bandar-e Lengeh to Sirik, and the islands... purely as a defensive measure of course...

Then whether Iraq is a success or not, whether Iran is conquerable or not, the US controls the Straits, and most of the oil supply out of the ME...

Is this the plan B to an Iraqi fuck up?

--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain

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Aniya on September 18, 2007 - 12:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Re,

Interesting idea.
re: "Of course - they don't really need to go take all of Iran..."

The next question is: What are the likely responses to this (by whom)? i.e., what could prevent this?

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LevinK on September 18, 2007 - 9:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think it would be much more easier to go ahead with building those pipelines, bypassing the Straits. Judging from the Iraqi war it would be much cheaper, even if we discount the death toll, as we usually do.

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Sterling on September 18, 2007 - 12:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

US controls the Straits

I think it would take a lot more than that to actually control the straits and insure the the continued flow of oil. Just the threat of hostilities would send insurance rates through the roof. If they sank one good sized tanker in the channel it would cause chaos.

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auntiegrav on September 19, 2007 - 3:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

What if Iran decides to make a "pre-emptive strike" to "ensure security of the straits"? In other words, what if their corporatocracy decides that it is "The business of Iran" to stop anyone but Iran from shipping oil?

What if our intelligence finds out about it, and decides on a "pre-pre-emptive strike" to "ensure security of the Straits"?

What if they attack each other at the same time?
Gambling logic says that you end up with 1 chance in 3 that the scenario plays out where the Strait of Hormuz is still passable in the near term (we attack first without them expecting it), probably half that chance that the oil terminals would remain undamaged; whereas a continuous diplomatic dialogue of accusations and eventual diminished macho-ism leading to possible actual verbal intercourse would allow ships to continue to transport oil.

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