24 comments on UPDATE: Greenspan Clarifies. Well, kinda.
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I think it would take a lot more than that to actually control the straits and insure the the continued flow of oil. Just the threat of hostilities would send insurance rates through the roof. If they sank one good sized tanker in the channel it would cause chaos.
What if Iran decides to make a "pre-emptive strike" to "ensure security of the straits"? In other words, what if their corporatocracy decides that it is "The business of Iran" to stop anyone but Iran from shipping oil?
What if our intelligence finds out about it, and decides on a "pre-pre-emptive strike" to "ensure security of the Straits"?
What if they attack each other at the same time?
Gambling logic says that you end up with 1 chance in 3 that the scenario plays out where the Strait of Hormuz is still passable in the near term (we attack first without them expecting it), probably half that chance that the oil terminals would remain undamaged; whereas a continuous diplomatic dialogue of accusations and eventual diminished macho-ism leading to possible actual verbal intercourse would allow ships to continue to transport oil.