38 comments on The ASPO Conference - First Afternoon
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38 comments on The ASPO Conference - First Afternoon
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Wow! This idea of tradable rations is taking off. Two forms are in this post. Here is my take on it. Black_dog's take is linked there and George Monbiot's as well. Now Douthwaite and Flemming have proposals. I'd like to see a side-by-side comparision of all of them to see the commonalities and differences. Flemming and Monbiot seem to have ideas about giving industry or government shares that they don't have to justify though Fleming seems interested in having industry pay in a bid system. Swanson (Black_dog), Douthwaite and I see a completely bottom up approach with each consumer energy decision being made completely clear via the rations: no upper level subsidies that hide energy use in price. I think that Swanson, Monbiot, Douthwaith and I insist that this be about carbon rather than energy while Flemming suggests using this for any scarce fuel (uranium?).
Does anyone see other differences? Is the name Icecaps OK?
Chris
Chris, thanks for the "plug".
I've thought about rationing for a number of years, but not in a serious fashion. I still have a lot to learn on the subject, even though, as an engineer, I've been concerned about energy issues for more than 35 years. For example, I was unaware that the U.S. had a Standby Gasoline Rationing Plan in place since 1980. Here's a link:
http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/12000/12200/12291/12291.pdf
Or, one can go back to King Hubbert's early works with the Technocrats:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/hubecon.htm
http://www.technocracy.ca/simp/man-hours-distribution.html
Here's another article on "Energy Certificates" from the Technocratic Society--dated 1938: Note that this was a time before Socialism and other utopian economic systems had taken on the negative connotations found in today's neocon world:
http://www.technocracy.org/Archives/The%20Energy%20Certificate-r.htm
One obvious sticking point is the distribution to various industries, where some energy intensive industries, such as primary metals, might find it difficult to produce their products if their consumption was directly rationed according to some formula. Distributing the rations to the final consumer, i.e., the people, makes it possible to link the consumption of all of industry's energy directly to the final demand.
Every day, people make many billions of decisions about consuming energy, but they may not be aware that they are doing so. Everything we do, from the time the alarm clock rings until we turn out the lights at bed time involves decisions involving the use of energy. Even during our sleep, our machines provide electricity or heat to keep us comfortable. The energy tax approach buries the tax in the overall price. A tax based "ration by price" system would continue to hide the real energy consumption impact of these activities from the individual, as the resulting increase in taxes would be added to all other costs to calculate a price at the final point of sales. If folks really understood what these choices meant in terms of energy consumption, I can only hope that they would act to reduce their individual use of fossil fuels (or carbon) and change their way of living for a healthier Earth.
E. Swanson
Here is one of the coupons that Phil Sharp spoke of burning during the Reagan administration. I'm not sure if the plan you linked to is the same but I think it is. The rations were printed but not used. As you can see, these are not tradable rations because they are tied to the licence plate number. Here is the wiki on the 73 crisis.
Chris
"One obvious sticking point is the distribution to various industries, where some energy intensive industries, such as primary metals, might find it difficult to produce their products if their consumption was directly rationed according to some formula."
I commend to you the information available at www.teqs.net . I enjoyed your comments linked to through mdsolar's article, and think that you would find the resolution of the above important issue there. If you have any further comments to add on it the newly-launched forum there will provide you with quick access to the TEQs team.
"tradeable rations" = oil futures
Yes and no. At any given time there is finite production and we use money to figure out who gets that production. Trading in futures is part of how that is done. With rations, we set demand below potential supply by deciding in advance that no more than say 80% of current use will be avaliable to use in say four years. Since demand is well below potential supply, price drops. It is the inverse of the current cartel system where supliers manipulate prices by manipulating supply. In this case demand is manipulated. Lowering the cost of fuel frees up funds to invest in alternatives while the rationing also motivates the demand for alternatives. Here is my outline again. The next post gives a science based motivation for doing things this quickly.
Chris
Hi mdsolar, it is indeed taking off. I am on the UK government's (DEFRA) advisory panel on "Personal Carbon Allowances" and there is tentative talk of 2011-2012 as a potential target date for implementation.
I also work with David Fleming's Lean Economy Connection, and he first published his model of TEQs in 1996, so it's not a new model, although it has been worked up and refined somewhat in that time (in small part by myself over the past year).
In terms of your request for direct comparisons, earlier this year I engaged in an online discussion on Cap and Share's website on the differences between the two schemes, which is available here: http://www.climatecooperation.org/index.php?title=Talk:TEQs
Since Monbiot recommends TEQs (although he didn't necessarily understand it fully when he wrote Heat), his perspective is effectively covered there too. If you want to understand the detail of TEQs all the information is available at www.teqs.net , and there is a newly launched forum there if you have any further inputs/questions. Chris Vernon over at Oil Drum Europe also did an article on it a year or so ago:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/4/163554/8625
To clear up a couple of points I will quickly mention though that there is nothing in TEQs that gives industry or government free shares - only individuals get an Entitlement, while industry and Government must purchase quotas at auction (the Tender) to cover their energy needs. Also it should perhaps be made clear that FEASTA's Cap and Share proposal does not ration individuals' energy use at all, but is rather an upstream limit on the total amount of energy (measured in potential carbon emissions) allowed into the economy.
This seems like it is becoming well developed. The difference I see is that I envision the cost in carbon to be tagged to each banana or apple at the store so you know what each thing you do means in terms of carbon use. But, once the rations are tradable, there is nothing really to stop the bidding from folding all that information back into price. So, very likely, things will work out the way you see it, with rations being used on fuel purchases and electricity, but with extra personal rations sold for the use of industry and government. But, so long as we know who is buying how much, we have some idea about which industries are making good progress.
I'm going to suggest that for consumer goods labeling be employed to indicate how many rations were used to bring the things to the stores. Then, we each would have a choice available about buying a high carbon or a low carbon apple even though the carbon information is otherwise convolved into the price since we already sold the rations to get the apple there. I was at a stand today where there was box (about a third of a bushel) of apples for 8 dollars and one for 18 dollars. They came from the same trees but the 8 dollar box had been sorted for use by hunters to lead deer to a blind. They mostly had worms or other bruises. You could tell the difference by sight as well as price. With the carbon use, you'd need something more though in the case of those particular apples the carbon use was minimal since the orchard was not far from the stand. The meat they'll yield will be low carbon use as well. But, you can't sell venison so rations won't touch that meal.
Chris