A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.

Canada's economy is moving and shaking. The loonie reached parity with the US dollar for the first time since the Gerald Ford presidency. But don't be fooled: it's not the Canadian economy that does so great, it's the US that sinks ever further ever faster, and the rest of the world is sinking with it, including Canada.

The long-awaited report on the royalty rates for the Alberta tar sands was published, and it recommends raising the royalties significantly. Both the industry and the business-friendly media in Canada cry foul, and worse. Just a few months ago, Shell said their tar sands operation was immensely profitable, but now the tune has changed.

Some voices say raising the royalties reeks of too-big government, and comparisons with Hugo Chavez fly everywhere. But those same voices do want the government to pay for the Mackenzie Valley pipeline.

Go here for the full report.

Caracas on the Bow River

Tim Hearn, chief executive officer of top oil sands producer Imperial Oil, said any additional royalties would harm companies already facing sky-high labour and construction costs for their projects.

“I'm not in a position today to say whether we've reached a tipping point or not because I can't tell you,” Mr. Hearn said. “But there's enough things working against us that if all this stays in place as is, there will be an effect in the industry, clearly.”

A former oil executive who was on the review panel lashed back at energy executives, saying they should concentrate on better managing their own businesses and contain cost increases rather than “whining” about higher royalties.

“I don't have any sympathies,” said Sam Spanglet, who ran Shell Canada Ltd.'s oil sands operation before retiring several years ago. “[Alberta is] still going to be very competitive. I feel very confident.”

Some Calgarians were angry, with one broker e-mailing his clients with the subject line: “Caracas on the Bow River,” comparing Alberta with Venezuela and its socialist President Hugo Chavez, who expropriated oil assets this year.

“If [the report is] enacted, investment decisions will be impacted … [the report] reads a bit like a Chavez-style manifesto,” Steve Larke, a Peters & Co. Ltd. broker, said in the e-mail.

When the going gets tough, the tough start doing goofy things. It seems as though those at the top have taken leave of their consensus. Sadly, they just Don't Know What To Do.

How could it have come to this?

RE: Canada: Energy CEOs call for national policy

Translation: the Alberta royalties report, on which the Round-Up has much more, has the oil industry in Canada turn to the federal government, which they trust, with the Tories in power, will be far more "business-friendly".

The federal government in Ottawa tried at least once before, late 1960's, to impose a national energy policy, and that time came close to causing a constitutional crisis, over Alberta's claims that it was master in its own house. Ironically, that time around Alberta was the more industry-friendly party.

The whole royalties question could well lead to another crisis in Canada, with both political power and industrial profits at stake, and down the line it will likely lead towards the judicial courts.

One thing has changed since the last time a national energy policy was on the table: NAFTA. It looks like it may be time to re-check its stipulations. US oil companies taking either Alberta or Canada's federal government to court, perhaps even a US court, is a distinct possibility under NAFTA.

Given what's at stake, starting with North American energy security, and including $150-200 billion in investments by non-Canadian companies, plus $trillions in potential profits, drawn-out court fights seem inevitable.