The Oil Drum

6 comments on MMS Shut-In Report on Subtropical Depression Ten

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

GreyZone on September 21, 2007 - 3:10pm

So... 62.7% of 1.3 mbpd means the US just lost 815,100 bpd. Crude oil consumption for June in the US (latest available data) was 622,095,000 barrels or 20,736,500 barrels per day. So for the duration of TD10, the US just lost 3.9% of its total crude oil supply. If we assume 3 days of shut-in (reasonable, might be 4) we are at about 2.5 million barrels lost. Have we seen 2.5 million barrels of refining capacity go offline yet for turn-around? If not, I'd expect lower crude inventories next week just on the TD10 data alone, unless someone can explain what other factors might change that.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

PeakTO on September 21, 2007 - 5:16pm

And, gasoline stocks lower due to the Valero plant just reaching 100% today after 10 days down.

Actually I haven't confirmed they are restarted yet, they just planned to be up today.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

myndlessconsumption on September 21, 2007 - 9:39pm

Traders Perspective:

we're going to take out this week's highs.

If these numbers are correct, we may see 90-

the bids are just too high. We saw a jump from 81-84 in an hour from the bidding to get the oct contract.

Likely monday may see one of the usual "V" patterns that we have seen all over the commodities sectors recently. Tuesday, folks will be trying to beat the inventory report, and before the inventory report it could get even worse, and afterwards, looking at this recent news data point, its going to be another very bad week with a very large draw on both crude and gasoline. the MSM is going to try to focus on heating oil, but crude is where the attention is. But the numbers are there for everyone to see. Likely short covering rally after the report, which could take us lord knows how high. Maybe another "V" pattern thursday as those who really need the contracts, and not the hedge funds, will have learned from their mistake this week and be buying heavily after the inventory report to beat the rush.

And the week after and after that likely more rallies.

I think this is without the effect of geo-political events which would have us see 100 in matter of minutes. This is the world we live in.