Ole: Good point-it depends how it plays out. In reality, globalization is about making the world more fun for wealthy Americans, wealthy Chinese, wealthy Indians. If the forces behind increased globalization can hold it together for a while, the wealthy in all these countries will bid against the working and middle class. Globalization wants the oil to flow towards the highest return (India and China)-other interests might work against this "free market globalization" drive.

Alan: To a certain extent. China consumes 24% more coal than the USA. The USA consumes 217% more oil than China. The USA economy is 28% larger (PPP).

Alan and Brian T,
Also, both China and India have substantial proportions of their populations that are still in the pre-fossil fuel village economy. Their actual cash income in the pre-industrialised areas is equivalent to the Village economies of Africa, Latin America and non-industrial parts of the middle east, places like rural Afganistan, the tribal areas of Pakistan, and North and South Yemen.

Brian T., I think this is a very relevant metric, and one that truly needs to be researched and documented. Because, I doubt many people want the economy to collapse to a village economy-the convulsions from that collapse would be the "die off".

The bottom end though would give us a figure of what has to be replaced with renewables to have a prosperous and healthy standard of living. The US and Canada right now use about 25 bbl/year per capita for a wasteful and unsustainable lifestyle. The Europeans are vey comfortable on about 12.5 bbl/year. And somewhere below that, but likely above the Indian or Chinese consumption is a figure where we can all prosper without killing the earth. And thats what we need to shoot for with solar, wind, hydroelectric and nuclear plants.

I also question "no growth" assumptions. We can have all the growth we want in areas that don't use non-renewable resources. How many houses can a person live in at once, how many pair of pants can I wear comfortably? There's already a level of diminishing utility, and we're past that in many areas in the OECD nations. But there's no limit to art or music or even financial analsis.

Bob Ebersole

Yes, there is a message in there that many are afraid to see. But that doesn't mean the message is any less real or valid.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

Paul - could you put *year* beside select data points on your graphs, and I'm interested mostly in the first. This must have been graphed before, anyone know sources of comparable graphs?

You could just as easily plot 'number of computers' compared to 'prosperity' and get similar graphs. Statistics are there for the statistician to manipulate to fit is case. Apparently even the MSM knows that the US gets more out of a barrel of oil now than we did back in 1970s. As that trend continues, oil will continue to 'decouple' from economic growth.

I have seen this graph for USA on various occasions, showing a decoupling of US GDP growth vs US total energy consumption:

Geary-Khamis method is explained at:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/icp/ipc7_htm.htm

I'm unsure whether inflatory effects (over time) were considered in the data aggregates used.

We're in the far northwest corner of the state and the wind here averages 8.0M/s. Unfortunately wind brings chill and snow so every farm has a row of pine trees as the outermost barrier and then deciduous trees nearer the house. Here I need 400' of cable to get to the place where I could put a wind turbine and it would required a guyed tower construction. If it weren't for trees a bracketed tower attached to our very tall barn would be just the ticket - less than half the cost for doing a guyed setup.

Geothermal implies volcanism to me - up here you'll hear putting coolant filled loops in the ground as ... "ground loop cooling". I have a friend in Cannuckistan who works for a company that installs these beasts and up there they call them "water furnaces".

Here is another one that just went empty this year. The town of Langdon, population 53, has seen better days.

http://flickr.com/photos/avyakata/1252533662/in/photostream/

If you click "map" and adjust until you've got an area bounded by highway 9 in the north, highway 18 in the south, highway 71 in the west, and highway 4 in the east you will find around 800 geotagged photos. About two thirds of them will be abandoned farmsteads. 95% of them are gone beyond redemption.

This was a "beyond redemption" with no roof in 1971 when my parents bought it, but now it is in the upper 10% in terms of value for this town. I'm sitting right behind the left window in the second floor cupola as I write this ...

http://flickr.com/photos/avyakata/33318840/in/set-568867/

What part of the country are you in? I think here if a place goes empty like that and they have the slightest chance of selling the furnace gets set to fifty five and someone mows the grass to discourage mischief. The propane tank being gone looks to be a very bad sign to me.

That one is four miles closer to the place where I have a second interview next Tuesday, there is good water there, and its a hilltop amenable to wind energy. I'm going to see the neighbors over the next few days and find out who owns it, just so I know the story.

WNC Observer,

I though that too until I noticed the comment about the propane tank being gone. Around here a rural house like that may set empty for years with the land leased and the yard maybe kept mowed. It usually means that the person(s) who lived there became too infirm to live alone and have been moved by relatives into a nursing home. Since all nursing home residents hope to someday get well enough to go back home, their family keeps the house available. They cannot sell it and are fearful of renting it because of the high probability of the renters setting up a meth lab are something that will cause them a major headache/expense down the road.

Here's the world, according to my brother:

If it isn't on the front page of the newspaper or the headline on the teevee, it can't be important.
The internet is just all conspiracy theories and porn.

My response: "Deal with Reality or Reality will deal with you" (tip o' the hat to the Chimp...)

They sell Propane for $1.65 a gallon? I ordered some from my local supplier last week and he said the price was $2.15. That was up from about $1.95 a couple of weeks earlier. The extra cost may be due to the fact that they own the tank and probably charge me a rental fee as an extra per gallon charge. They have never been clear about the cost of the tank, which I have probably paid for by now, only they still own it. Last winter, I paid $2.55 for one delivery.

The choices around here are oil heat, propane, electric or wood. Wood is the least expensive, but requires the most effort. There's a new natural gas pipeline to town, but none available near my house. I expect that the pipeline will arrive about the time the NG peaks out.

If you really want a generator, Northern Tool has several options. They sell several with enclosures that run on either NG or propane. These are not diesel, so the efficiency isn't going to be great. They also sell diesel systems by John Deer and Perkins. Remember, these are for backup, not long term operation. See:

http://www.northerntool.com/categories/generators/

E. Swanson