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A comment on gasoline inventories..
I have been trying to find the average weekly build data, because eyeballing the graphs it would appear that although there have been modest builds the last 2 weeks, they have actually been less than the average builds for that time period. This would mean that even with the increase instead of a loss, we are actually falling even further behind relative to the seasonal average.
True. And (by looking at the graph) there seems to be a drawdown on the stocks in a month or two, of about 5M. That will get the stocks very, very close to the 185M level... I remember hearing around here that that was the minimum possible stock level.
I guess we might be testing that fact before long.
One interesting thing about the recent http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/B7 > price action in crude oil is that it would appear to be being driven by strong fundamental factors. Over the past month, crude oil has pushed higher steadily day by day. This isn't action driven by news or rumors with surges and pull backs, this is unidirectional and with a purpose. It suggests that something is changing in the underlying supply and demand dynamics and that this surge could take us to $100 and beyond.
Tea leaves? Perhaps, but these markets are driven by the commercials and they have their finger on the pulse of supply and demand.
Julian Darley has http://globalpublicmedia.com/chris_skrebowski_on_record_high_oil_price > interviewed Chris Skrewbowski on the current supply demand situation over at Global Public Media and his conclusion is that there probably won't be enough supply to meet the increased demand of the northern hemisphere winter.
Something will turn the Excursion drivers into Prius owners and my guess is it won't be our telling them hybrids are good for the planet!
IMO, supply and demand figures are becoming less meaningful. As more ME oil is pulled off the futures markets and sold through contracts in non-US dollars, more activity in dollars will be driven to the dollar based hubs.
It was reported last week that Shell bought more Omani hub based UAE oil than is actually produced there. Why? Probably because that's the only place they can get it. Now the banks are going to have to find the oil to fill the orders or sell their contracts at a loss.
People seem to forget that the Oman and Brent Hubs are skeletons of what they once were. Saudi Arabia is clearly not selling much oil there.
This is a weak dollar phenominon. The problem is few analysts can see pricing in three demensions, supply, demand and currency exchange.
if would probably make more sense to look at the week to week change in a 4 week rolling average. The data are on the iffy side so when you start taking differences of data with big error bars you'll get all kinds of noise.
make a spreadsheet with the DOE data if you really are interested.
One note of caution. Just because people said 185 million was the limit doesn't make it so. Given the price of oil now, there will be a large incentive to find ways to work with less stock. The carrying cost is painful.