65 comments on ASPO 6: Have we reached the tipping point?
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65 comments on ASPO 6: Have we reached the tipping point?
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GAIA Host Collective
Thanks Chris for the extra bits. Can you dwell a bit mo on the following bits:
Which numbers? The oil, gas or coal reserve numbers they are using?
Just to make sure: the real data from the field on warming & ice melting on poles is happening faster than their worst case scenario (latest IPCC high scenario 2007).
Very good point! A lot of people have been trying to hammer this point home elsewhere.
However, to make sure I understand where you stand.
This (burning the rest of the oil) is "no problem" IF and ONLY IF:
- we do not increase emissions significantly from ANY other resources (yes, coal is the most abundant, but there are other potential emissions sources too)
- we do not see the rapid depletion of oil as a problem by itself (cf. Oil Depletion Protocol)
That is, using the rest of the oil (rapidly) might be a problem for us, regardless of climate change AND considering our voracious energy appetite, we are going to be using lots of other emitting primary sources other than "all of oil" too.
Here's what I wrote in another thread on this topic:
"I once looked at the numbers with a friend and to my surprise, Jeremy Legget did something similar (with slightly different numbers) in his speech on the conference.
Our result:
Gross Climate Limit: 4.90 GtCeq/y (IPCC for 2000-2100)
- Land use change: 1.60 GtCeq/y (IPCC for 2000-2100)
- Livestock GHG: 1.25 GtCeq/y (FAO, for 2004)
= Net Climate Limit for Energy: 2.05 GtCeq/y max.
I.e. Net Climate Limit for Energy for 2000-2100: 205 GtCeq
(GtCeq means gigatons of carbon equivalent. There are other units around, like CO2eq, so if you want to compare, be careful!)
If you compare this "climate limit" of 2.05 GtCeq with the various reserve estimates, you find that even with the most conservative fossil fuel reserve estimates, we can just afford to burn all the oil and gas that's there but only if we do not burn a single gram of coal at the same time.
So, as many speaker said during the conference: Peak Oil will not save us from Global Warming, especially not if CTL and tar sands will be used as large-scale substitutes.
Cheers,
Davidyson
Reference to the FAO report:
http://www.virtualcentre.org/en/library/key_pub/longshad/A0701E00.pdf
"