Great post Jerome - Unfortunately IMHO your points are the most pressing variables currently.

After listening to this talk over at foraTV;

China and the Competition for Energy Resources

http://fora.tv/2007/09/11/China_and_the_Competition_for_Energy_Resources

The degree of growth is just mind boggeling.
It seems clear that the US expanded presence in the Middle East is a case of - If we don't lock it in they will.

It is tragic that the "need" for oil is largely an artifical one created by government interference in free markets. The Corn article demonstrates just how far the state is willing to go in order to preserve itself.

Centrally managed societies are terribly vulnerable to collapse for many reasons. Sure, they can potentially head off problems more rapidly than power-diffuse societies, but that's contingent on having a wise king.