The prospect of the arctic being ice-free within the next decade stuns me. It's another order of magnitude (sort of) rate of increase in the rate of increase.

There is this snippet from Kolbert's "Field Notes from a Catastrophe":

"Obviously, if you get drought indices like these, there's no adaptation that's possible. But let's say it's not that severe. What adaptation are we talking about? Adaptation in 2020? Adaptation in 2040? Adaptation in 2060? Because the way the models project this, as global warming gets going, once you've adapted to one decade, you're going to have to change everything the next decade. [David Rind, GISS climate scientist, p111, Kolbert, Field Notes from a Catastrophe]"

I'd never thought of it that way but had focused on "what is the right paradigm" and how important it might be to jump to it directly. The requirement for a radically changing series of adaptations pretty well shoots holes in all the lifeboats. Restructuring our entire resource base decade over decade just to keep up - not going to happen.

cfm in Gray, ME

"The prospect of the arctic being ice-free within the next decade stuns me"

Why? It's been free in the past. Even back as far as 1880 a ship made it ice free from the Pacific to the Atlantic. Also in 1944 a wooden RCMP boat on patrols made it through there ice free on several trips across the top.

It's not a problem.

Richard
London, Ont.

No one is ahead of their time, just the rest of humanity is slow to catch on.

You appear to be confused. We are not talking about the northwest passage, which are the trips to which you refer and which, by the way, were not completely ice free. No, we are talking about the entire arctic, all of it, every stinking square inch of ocean, being ice free. If you fail to understand the impact of that, then you need to refresh your understanding of the topic.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone