Nabucco is dead.

No. One more Zombie/Undead pipeline resurrected
to isolate Russia.

Just an ex. of where US oil policy is today.

First Today's News:

" Kazakhstan Today. October, 8. BAKU. In the frames of forthcoming energy summit which will held on October 10 - 11 in Vilnius Azerbaijan, Georgia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine are up to sign energy cooperation agreements, said during the press conference on Friday, October 5, Lithuania Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Kestutis Kudsmanas, as reported by the KZ-today correspondent.

As the diplomat stated, the presidents of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine will sign agreements on energy cooperation. Besides, an agreement establishing the company responsible for oil pipeline Odessa - Brody - Plotzk - Gdansk project and an agreement between Lithuania and Latvia on energy bridge construction will be signed.

The ambassador underlined that Lithuania examines an option of Azerbaijani gas supply via NABUCCO gas pipeline."

March 2007:

"The €5bn Nabucco project was conceived to be the “anti-Russian” pipeline. Stretching from Turkey through the Balkans into central Europe, it would take some 30bn cubic metres a year of gas from Central Asia, the Middle East and Egypt into the EU. The European Commission, which instructed its development banks to finance the bulk of the project, prioritised the pipeline as key to reducing the continent’s dependence on Russian gas.

Hungary’s state energy company, Mol, is one of five companies in a consortium that was planning to develop the Nabucco pipeline. Mol might remain in the consortium – but without Hungary’s political backing for the project, it has no chance of proceeding.

That is because Budapest favours a rival pipeline project that would bring Gazprom’s gas through the Blue Stream pipeline – under the Black Sea between Russia and Turkey – and up through the Balkans into Hungary. It would target the same markets as Nabucco. Analysts rule out the possibility of both coming on stream. More likely is that the Nabucco developers will join Gazprom’s project.

In November (06), Alexander Medvedev, head of Gazprom’s export arm, told me that Nabucco posed no threat to Gazprom’s plans to extend Blue Stream. “Nabucco is a virtual pipeline,” he said. He even had time to make a joke at its expense. Referring to the opera from which it takes its name, he said: “Unlike the Verdi opera, there will be no execution of this Nabucco.” Europe’s problem remains the same: Gazprom keeps having the last laugh

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

BTW, has everyone else noticed that the MSM really didn't cover Jeff Rubin's report on net oil exports? After the shocked silence on CNBC, coverage of the report pretty well went to zero.

Very disturbing indeed. Clearly, the word is out to keep this guy off the news. Even more disturbing, listening to Rubin's presentation, was his view that only Canada had the resources to pick up the slack. I did not hear this view challenged.

Great work Khebab, I have a little graph I drew a few days ago that looks similiar to Fig5. 9 points of Intersection, 5 'average' cases. Some of these points are more likely than others IMO. The relationship between them and what it actually means for the country in question can be explored further.

The exporter countries will be able to maintain treasury revenue up to some point then income may collapse. Sensing this (and they would be blind not too) wouldn't these countries take drastic measures to curtail internal demand? At some point KSA, Russia and the others must end subsidies, tax fuel and probably invest in nuclear(Iran?)/renewables.

We already see KSA looking to invest heavily in downstream production of plastics, etc. :

"To increase margin, add value..."

-that's what the OECD importers do and they want a piece of the action. We are seeing huge petrodollar inflows to US Bonds and other financial instruments, is anything being destroyed yet? Perhaps the petrodollar recycling will keep the party going for a while yet.

The Net Oil decline rate is going to be critical in determining how ugly this gets. I look forward to your report.

Regards, Nick.