<DrumBeat: October 9, 2007 The Oil Drum Getting a Grasp on Oil Production Volumes>

133 comments on Did Katrina Hide the Real Peak in World Oil Production? and Other Oil Supply Insights

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memmel on October 9, 2007 - 2:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Remember WT has presented two things the Export Land model and ELP. It looks like as usual we are going to make the right decision way to late but ELP is not a bad life especially if coupled with the electric rail proposals.

I for one will not be sad to see the infinite growth lie to be exposed and a saner more realistic way of living take its place. So the ELP message needs as much exposure as ExportLand.

Its saddening that we are so arrogant and wasteful that it looks like millions if not billions will die because we are wasting our current oil supplies feeding the dying infinite growth propaganda machine.

The only thing I can say is that the Third world is as guilty as the first of turning its back on sustainable living so they share in the blame its not just wasteful Americans.

But hopefully ELP and electric rail will become important soon so don't forget WT second message from the mount or more apt the plain :)

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umass82 on October 9, 2007 - 2:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The third world ha been duped into believing that they can all live the American model, They are reaching or this goal in india and china, the reality is that the world can not support another major first world economy based on the current model of buy bury and waste resources.

A perfect example of this is made in a recent TV show in Ireland Future Shock: End of the Oil Age at http://www.rte.ie/tv/futureshock/

While Ireland is not a poor country anymore, it was so just a generation ago, the country has so emulated the American model that it is has gone to a very different place than it was. From a country that while poor was basically starting from scratch in the 70s and 80s, the road that they went down was one of suburbia and sprawl Dublin is getting bigger than la with a 7th of the population. As a tabla blanca the planners and government could have gone down the other path but there was no obvious need to do so.

The blame goes to the planners and oil execs who knew as far back as the 70's that peak oil was a reality. How much of the suffering that is going to occur in the future could have been avoided if big oil had let onthat the future was not as energy rich as they let on.

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Oscar on October 9, 2007 - 3:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

So it's the third world that has been duped? Somehow I thought it was the first world that has been duped into believing that everything can continue just as it is. I haven't seen any big move away from SUV's, cheap airfares, weekend vacations in the sun, driving to 7-11 for a slurpee, fresh flowers from Africa, my entitlement to a 4,000 sq ft home, cars for the kids, ATVs, living in Phoenix or Las Vegas, etc etc (all parts of our non-negotiable lifestyle that need buckets of energy). So whether there are Katrina effects or not we have some nasty big problems ahead of us. And you think it was a tough sell just trying to get PO on the agenda. Now try to explain that maybe we have also had Peak Lifestyle.

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memmel on October 9, 2007 - 4:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The point is everyone is guilty of drinking the kool-aid.

Certainly if the third world had not tried to follow in the footsteps of the first world and rejected aspiring to the American dream you outlined and instead invested in sustainable high tech they would not be getting the shaft now.

Simply because they waste less does not mean they made the right decisions and I'm sure given the chance they would be just as bad as any American look at the consumption of China's growing middle class. We are all pigs just some are skinner pigs.

I'm sure the peak oil message is not going over any better in the third world than the first and ELP is a hard sell to those who should adapt the most.

Put it this way the third world countries tend to have reasonable natural resources they could have easily leveraged those to buy/build learn technology/medicine to create a ELP culture.

They did not.

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umass82 on October 9, 2007 - 4:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No disagreement from me, the cities like those you mentioned as well as Orlando, are unsustainable in an energy scarce future, Take away cheap AC and water from them and they will be very harsh places to live especially if you live in a house designed after the advent of AC. Even if the power goes of for a few hours in one of these homes on a day in the summer it takes a couple of days for the house to cool off again at full AC.

Peak Lifestyle is what the RTE documentary is all about but of course much of what is said can apply to the new cities of America.

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Manager-BW on October 9, 2007 - 5:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Its indefatigable ignorance as a cultural choice. Until the peak lifestyle becomes apparent to enough people that the opinion makers catch on to attract and point the masses attention. Which is ALWAYS too late . . . http://newenergyandfuel.com/ . . . So you're right, peak lifestyle was and is shrinking for many right now. With more to come of course.

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jbunt on October 9, 2007 - 8:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

umass82 -

Jimmy Carter knew - and he told everybody. Actually, everybody knows that everything will have a peak, and they always have known. But, in the 1970's, no one had a clue as to when peak oil would occur worldwide - just WAG's. Right now, the world is running out of 100's of key items, but no one "knows" when the real problems will begin, oil excepted, because of the size of the oil market and the attention it gets.

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umass82 on October 9, 2007 - 9:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

JC did try to wean the US of of foreign oil, it is one of the things that cost him the election in 1980. The US did not want to deal with this perhaps what we have here is a ostrich feedback loop, Politicians will not try to force the country to change because hey believe it is political suicide, and because there has been little leadership on this issue then the country is not going to make the changes needed,

I do not believe that there is a real awareness on this issue. I believe that people just do not want to know, the reality is too much for the soccer mom and dad crowd.
That is what doomed JC's reelection bid people did not want to hear gloom and doom they wanted it to be morning again on America and for a while perhaps it was but at the expense of so much.

Awareness it seems will only come when it is too late. The days of a cornucopias society are of course limited, the commodities markets are a reflection of this from iron to copper etc et. It took a lot to convince people on global warming, and still some do not believe in it or do not see it as a bad thing, more days at the beach, long term this will screw us but at least there is some awareness of it, however PO is a train wreck that is going to hit soon and the lack of government and media attention is astounding.

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133 comments on Did Katrina Hide the Real Peak in World Oil Production? and Other Oil Supply Insights

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