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“It takes as much energy to wish as it does to plan.”
—Eleanor Roosevelt
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Snapshot of Millennium Institute Results
I recently spent a week in the Washington DC area working with the Millennium Institute on a series of runs of their T21 model with my scenarios. The results fill several large files and will be discussed in much more detail on Wednesday at the ASPO-Houston conference during a 1.5 hour presentation.
However, I can disclose a small snapshot of the data.
Oil availability is based upon the ASPO-Ireland (Colin Campbell) projections. A Peak in 2011 (oil at $250 to $300/barrel).
Reference case is a market based reaction to higher oil prices.
Transportation is my best realistic case for electrifying freight rail and build-out of Urban Rail and TOD. No expanded bicycling adjustment.
Transportation + Renewable Energy is as above plus a major move towards renewable energy.
All of my scenarios were done as “freebies” with simplifications and short-cuts to cut costs. Millennium Institute is looking for funding for a more complex and complete model & scenarios.
All data was normalized to 1.0 for 2007.
Time (Year}......... 2007....2025.. 2038
Transportation liquid fuel demand
Trans + Renew En.1.00....0.50.... 0.40
Transportation...... 1.00....0.47.... 0.35
Reference.............. 1.00....0.67.... 0.55
Total petroleum demand
Trans + Renew En.1.00....0.46.... 0.38
Transportation...... 1.00....0.44.... 0.35
Reference.............. 1.00....0.57.... 0.47
Real GDP at market prices
Trans + Renew En.1.00....1.18.... 1.50
Transportation...... 1.00....1.18.... 1.46
Reference.............. 1.00....1.09.... 1.19
Fossil Fuel GHGas Emissions
Trans + Renew En.1.00....0.57.... 0.50
Transportation...... 1.00....0.77.... 0.73
Reference.............. 1.00....0.79.... 0.69
Best Hopes,
Alan
Congratulations are due to Alan and the Millennium Institute modelers. Those are some significant silver BBs for petroleum demand reduction.
The Millennium Institute T21 modeling software is an extraordinarily comprehensive and powerful tool for understanding future development scenarios. This page gives an overview of the model, and this page explains its modeling capabilities. The model can deliver extremely detailed results that account for a broad variety of feedback loops across different spheres.
The full modeling process involves a lot of information gathering and customization. Once the foundation has been laid, the model results can be used to inform and underpin policy. IMO, funding for the completion of this initiative will reap sizable benefits in the decision making and advocacy realms.
It should be mentioned that Laurence Aurbach and Ed Tennyson also attended and helped in the development of the scenarios :-)
Kudos to both of them as well !
Alan
Have you tried running scenarios based on some of Amory Lovins' proposals? Those would seem to be similar in the sense they rely on efficiency. I.e., ultralight materials, electric cars, etc.
Maybe Lovins might want to pay you to do this?
Three words:
Club of Rome
The Malthusians have been predicting 23,759 of the last 3 disasters.
The only way oil will be a problem is if government interferes with supply and demand.
Do you realize how much oil is out there at $200 a bbl? Lots.
The USA alone has 6X as much oil in the ground as has already been produced.
Wrong.
You have no idea what you are talking about.
Please go and read several months prior posts (scan titles for relevant material) and lurk for a couple of months before posting again.
For one, oil supply is price in-elastic. Higher prices bring forth very little new oil. Proof ?
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN...
Best Hopes,
Alan
Alan, thanks for the snapshot peek. Your $250 to $300/barrel at any point in the future seems unanticipated. Perhaps I'm just naive but wouldn't demand destruction preclude that? Thanks for all your hard work.
From informal verbal discussions (i.e. NOT from the horse's mouth), they anticipate a spike to $250 to $300/barrel which results in about -5% GDP shrinkage. This demand destruction allows oil to drop below $200/barrel and a +2% GDP rebound the following year. This in turn leads to +$200/barrel prices and stagnant economic growth thereafter as oil becomes scarcer and more expensive.
I try, with limited success, to reduce oil demand faster than depletion via higher efficiency and substitution. In the Colin Campbell world, it is a close race ! In the Jeffrey Brown ELM world, I would likely lose (not yet modeled).
The default oil conservation strategy, if all else fails, is reduced economic activity. In the ELM world, I strongly suspect that all the EOT efforts would do is reduce the rate of economic shrinkage and provide a non-oil transportation base with which to one day rebuild the economy around.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Alan - you probably didn't see last nights Republican debate, and I only skimmed through snippets, but one thing I did notice is that oil and dealing with our dependence upon imported oil played a (non-trivial) part in the overall discussion. It was heartening to see a couple of the candidates (including the leading one) mention electrification of vehicles. However, rail was not mentioned.
Also, Instapundit today is writing on the PopMech conference
http://instapundit.com/archives2/010375.php
The overall social and political winds are changing in favor of your emphases, I believe. Let's hope that we can speed up the necessary changes for our society to remain productive and rewarding for all.
Some days, I see it as a race to pre-position my meme before the panic sets in (remember the quote in the upper right corner on TOD that we have two modes for energy policy; complacency and panic ?)
And just how does one direct a panicking herd towards the right gate ? It is going to be a mess, but with proper preparation ...
Best Hopes (and I *MEAN* it !)
Alan
Meme's are devilishly difficult to work with. But you're right, at the point people panic, they'll work with the memes they already have.
How about a series of popular jokes? I'm only half kidding.
Or the threat of an "electrified transportation gap" which the 'terrorists' are secretly rooting for to starve our children.
etc
Maybe "Who is Alan Drake?"
(Readers of Ayn Rand will get this)
"Maybe "Who is Alan Drake?"
I like that oh so well!!!!!!!!
I am a big advocate of gorilla marketing (not what they write about in books by the by).
Alan you need to put your name as an up front tag on your new web site because this could work.
I have seen viral branding/marketing at work and it blows anything else you could do right out of the water, I don't care how much money you throw at it. (also your name is great).
I'm cranking up my bumper sticker maker.
A bit of irony if stickers on cars bumpers spreads your message far and wide?
P.S. I vote for railClimate dot com
cheers
HopefortheFuture dott conn is leading the pack ATM. HopeforFuture dott conn is up for sale.
I do not want to limit myself to rail. My vision is larger than that, but I saw rail as the best "leading edge" and most salable component of my vision.
I think hope will be a scarce commodity one day. Best to corner the market while I can ;-P
Best Hopes,
Alan
First Draft of website home page
Will we run in panic for life and beauty ?
{French Tram Pic}
http://images.nycsubway.org/i62000/img_62964.jpg
Or run towards death and destruction ?
{Strip Mining Pic}
http://www.ohvec.org/old_site/images/Ovec22.gif
One day we will panic over the availability of oil and/or the "in our face" results of Global Warming.
There are many responses possible. Some responses are ineffectual snake oil that will waste precious time and energy. Other responses are self destructive. They may work for a time, but they condemn us and those that may follow us to a degraded world and destruction of much of what we hold dear.
This website is devoted to those few REAL solutions that can improve our quality of life, and the lives of those that will follow us.
Best Hopes,
Alan Drake
We don't need hope. We need despair. From despair we might get desperate action.
Hope suggests merely hanging on and that is not helpful.
cfm in Gray, ME
Hope, the last and worst of the evils in Pandora's box.
"Foresight & greed" is similar to hope, and can also lead to quick action; whether positively or not is to be determined. A greedy bastard thinks "Hmm -- situation is coming. How can I profit?"
An "EBay" of ride sharing might help. Maybe a better way of finding roommates.
Of course, greed can also lead to negative actions; it seems likely that a greedy demagogue might find a use for hordes of disaffected sub-prime borrowers.
how can i profit is not just about greed
right now i am thinking what can i do that makes me money so that i am not left behind resourceless - i have a 4yo with special needs who will NOT make it in the sort of dog-eat-dog world coming, on his own
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
This is an important and difficult thing to do. The best thought i have on this is to be part of a community that may survive. I don't see how one can get through this alone unless you have multi-millions.
I would say your best investment is skills. Who knows if money or real estate or gold or any other material goods will be worth anything in the future? It could all end up being about as valuable as shares of Enron or Pets.com.
The medical field might be worth getting into. EMT, nurse, veterinary technician, something like that. They are likely to do well if the happy motoring continues, with our aging population increasingly devoted to pets. If TSHTF, medical skills will still be in demand, and people likely won't care too much if you don't have an MD.
And in that vein don't overlook a career as a physician's assistant, chiefly because in most states you can prescribe/order medications (ref):
Q: Can P.A.'s prescribe medications?
Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia and Guam allow P.A.'s to write and sign prescriptions without a physician cosignature. These prescriptions will be filled by pharmacists.
Those who can care for others will do well, now or post-peak.
don't knock Pets.com - i actually have an autographed photo of the Pets.com sock puppet dedicated to my then cats! (long not-that-interesting story)
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
Has anyone come up with a top ten list of post peak careers? I'm casting about for new things to learn as I think we've pretty much hit peak voice/data networks.
Gardening gets a nod, the medical training will be invaluable, animal husbandry, that handy man skill set as applied to energy conservation, small engine mechanics(cars will die - too complex after about 1975 to be kept up), and every form of cobbling, crafting, and making, just as we did a century ago. It would be nice to see this expanded on, chewed over, and turned into a set of vocational programs for the high school and two year college level.
I hated growing up here, but I give thanks now every day for my rural upbringing - most of what is needed post peak is to dust off things in the basement, hunt down the tools that aren't where I put them down in the mid 1980s, and start acting like my parents did when my brother and I were children ...
One of the TOD staffers - I won't say who, because I'm not sure he meant it for public consumption - said recently that he thinks gardening/farming will not be a desirable skill. He thinks the future will be one where the government uses technology, not to pursue alternate energy, but to control the people, Brave New World-style. And the elite and middle class will be supported by a permanent underclass. He believes having skills like gardening will just mean you end up in the slave class.
So the skill set for future inclusion in the upper class would be MANIPULATOR.
Master manipulator of people, money, and resources.
I guess it always has been for that matter.
He argued that it would be carried to a whole new level. We're unlikely to see high returns on investments into alternate energy, efficiency, etc. But there may still be a lot of low-hanging fruit when it comes to psychoactive drugs, technology used to spy on people, and that kind of thing.
Blackwater drill instructor.
Railway engineer, backhoe driver, nuclear engineer, scrap sorter, chemical engineer, forestry worker, bicycle repairman, railcar builder, auto mechanic specilized on ultralight cars and plug-in hybrids, carpenter, plumber, dressmaker, school teacher, and on and on...
Good attitude. An optimistic search for opportunity is a major survival trait. Most of us have two avenues to explore: 1) how can I make more efficient use of what I have? (Things like "get a job closer to home/get a home closer to the job", "get back to a healthy weight", "live simply", and 2) how can I get more stuff. "2" is also a valid approach.
i couldn't agree with you more - you are spot on
global warming has been ignored largely based on hope
now Peak Oil is being ignored based on hope
hope is a destructive response to the level of threat that exists today IMHO
a plan for the future is fine - but hope for the future? i don't like the branding that represents
--
All these memories will be lost in time
like tears in rain
The word on hope has long been spoken.
and continues to be spoken
My source of hope is clearly and tightly tied to effective action. BAU results in a continued slide towards "death and destruction" as outlined on my proposed home page.
People's primary sources of hope and despair will NOT come from me, but from other sources. Only when their primary source of hope is dimmed or extinguished, might they see and turn towards this as a source of hope. And hope is coupled with positive actions.
IMHO, 99+% of those that look at the website in the near future will not get a strong emotional imprint from it. Rather a subtle. largely subconscious, connection between "hope" and that pretty French cityscape. Intellectually, hopefully, they will see a series of positive actions that will "make a difference" and make the world slightly better than it would have otherwise have been.
Reactions will vary significantly across the spectrum, but when faced with the intractable problems we are headed towards, many of those that visit the site will not automatically turn towards "ethanol", or "coal-to-liquids" or "tar sands" or "just raise CAFE" but towards more effective sets of solutions. I expect the linkage between "hope" and my ideas to be weak and not dominant. But a weak linkage can give the ideas a much stronger and more effective impact than an intellectual problem solving only appeal, IMHO.
Best Hopes,
Alan
BAU = Business as Usual
My source of hope is that I am absolutely sure that a lot of things can be done, I can from the inside of a small part of our political system see the system chew thru problems at a slow paceand it is chewing on todays climate and resource problems. Unfortunately we have buerocracy and inertia and fallout from toying with socialism in the way in Sweden but also those problems are being worked on.
little advice.... if there are any other domains you think you MIGHT want, snag 'em.
excellent