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232 comments on DrumBeat: October 10, 2007

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Laurence Aurbach on October 10, 2007 - 10:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Congratulations are due to Alan and the Millennium Institute modelers. Those are some significant silver BBs for petroleum demand reduction.

The Millennium Institute T21 modeling software is an extraordinarily comprehensive and powerful tool for understanding future development scenarios. This page gives an overview of the model, and this page explains its modeling capabilities. The model can deliver extremely detailed results that account for a broad variety of feedback loops across different spheres.

The full modeling process involves a lot of information gathering and customization. Once the foundation has been laid, the model results can be used to inform and underpin policy. IMO, funding for the completion of this initiative will reap sizable benefits in the decision making and advocacy realms.

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AlanfromBigEasy on October 10, 2007 - 12:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It should be mentioned that Laurence Aurbach and Ed Tennyson also attended and helped in the development of the scenarios :-)

Kudos to both of them as well !

Alan

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jimvj on October 10, 2007 - 7:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Have you tried running scenarios based on some of Amory Lovins' proposals? Those would seem to be similar in the sense they rely on efficiency. I.e., ultralight materials, electric cars, etc.

Maybe Lovins might want to pay you to do this?

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M. Simon on October 11, 2007 - 4:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Three words:

Club of Rome

The Malthusians have been predicting 23,759 of the last 3 disasters.

The only way oil will be a problem is if government interferes with supply and demand.

Do you realize how much oil is out there at $200 a bbl? Lots.

The USA alone has 6X as much oil in the ground as has already been produced.

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AlanfromBigEasy on October 11, 2007 - 6:16am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Wrong.

You have no idea what you are talking about.

Please go and read several months prior posts (scan titles for relevant material) and lurk for a couple of months before posting again.

For one, oil supply is price in-elastic. Higher prices bring forth very little new oil. Proof ?

The Texas oil industry knows all about peak oil, because we've already gone through it.

In 1972, Texas was king of the oil world. We had increased our oil production by 40 percent during the previous 10 years at relatively low prices. Texas producers were poised for surging production as oil prices exploded and rose tenfold by 1980. The state underwent its biggest drilling boom in history. The number of producing wells jumped 14 percent by 1982. The industry consensus was that oil production would increase dramatically. To general astonishment, it fell instead, despite dramatically higher prices, frantic drilling and improving technology. By 1982, production had dropped to almost exactly what it had been in 1962

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/points/stories/DN...

Best Hopes,

Alan

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