117 comments on You might have heard that CLX07 hit $86/bbl today. Oil--in the next month--will...
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117 comments on You might have heard that CLX07 hit $86/bbl today. Oil--in the next month--will...
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Well, the chart says:
Source: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936
What you will see in this chart (and analysis) is that there are no targets. Only tendencies. And the "picture" can change daily. But remember, the trend is your friend, and that hasn't changed in the past 5 years, right?
Cheers, Dom
------------
Just remember the Golden Years, all you at the top!
When oil was $70+ in 2005 following Katrina the MSM were reporting that it was still below its inflation adjusted price in 1972-1980 of $80. Now oil is $87.60 (Bloomberg: Nymex Crude Future 05:30EST 16 Oct) and the MSM are saying that oil is still cheaper than its inflation adjusted figure in 1980 of $101.
Does the law of receding horizons impact oil so directly as well? In other words, is the $87.60 worked into the inflation figures. And if so will oil ever exceed its inflation adjusted 1980 value?
What you're really asking is if there is anything like infinite petroleum. The answer is no. 101$ will be reached, and the 1980 figure will be topped.
Geez dude, that is not even close to what he was asking.
Mostly, yes. Oil is an input to near everything and, so, inflation tends to go toghether with its price.
today
As I see, two factors can change real oil prices:
1 - A recession, where people stop buying lots of goods and concentrate their spending on oil. That would make oil prices go up.
2 - Food inflation, where people stop buying other goods to concentrate their spending on food. That would make oil prices to go down.
And 2 seems to be dominating 1 by now.
But forget about all that. Current oil prices are due to the weak Dollar (and a weak Dollar is partialy due to peak oil, but that is another topic). Have I said that gasoline prices are falling as a rock at Brazil?
I'm sorry, I couldn't disagree more.
1. IF there's a recession, that'll mean less, not more oil demand, thus leading to lower prices.
2. Food inflation does not impact oil inflation unless there is a recession, in which case, oil goes down.
The dollar has stabilized at 1,42 in euros since last month, when oil hit 82. The current 5$ rise is therefore not because of the descending dollar. And oil is also rising in euros, so this is no "excuse" at all.
The underlying fundamental is shrinking supply (non-OPEC), shrinking stocks (USA) and growing demand (Chindia). Demand has been higher than supply all year long.
"1. IF there's a recession, that'll mean less, not more oil demand, thus leading to lower prices."
Ah, but you discount the effect of panic and hoarding (personal and national) on prices.
People don't 'hoard' during recessions. They bemoan their woes to congress and the Democrats give them $5000 baby bonds.
I am talking about inflation adjusted prices.
On a recession, every price go down (deflation), but oil moves less than average. On a food inflation, every price go up, but oil, again, moves less than average.
And remember that the universe is expanding, which means that a barrel of oil today is actually larger than a barrel of oil from 1980.
true enough. But the cylinders in the engines are expanding at the same rate, and the distance from place to place is growing, so the fuel mileage should be the same. At the same time, the dollar is shrinking, so the US economy must not be tied to the cosmological constant after all.
:)
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
I was thinking the exact same thing, that a couple of years ago they were saying that in inflation adjusted dollars the all time high was about $80/barrel. What gives?
Look at my post downthread.
The question is when it will pass the inflation adjusted high and be a new record. That'll be uncharted water.
Waitasecondhere:
In 2005 the "Inflation adjusted" [edit]peak[/edit] price of crude was $80/barrel, and in 2007 it's $101/barrel? Does this mean the MSM is claiming a 12% annual inflation rate for the past 2 years?!
Funny, I heard on Jim Lehrer yesterday that the inflation-adjusted number was $90.
The Energy Outlook blog has an interesting post about this: