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NO WAY will tar sands be stopped next year. Im comfortable making that prediction (barring force majeur like we get overtaken by aliens or virus wipes out 50%)
Liquid fuels on PLANETARY basis, more important than NG - even if NG doubles triples in price they will at least keep the surface mining stuff going. Tar sands are going to continue, at environmental cost not factored into the market, for many years to come...
It gets VERY cold in Canada (and the northern US) in the winter.
ATM, we *like* our NG to heat our houses. (read as: we foolishly chose to make NG the only fuel for millions of homes - no option for wood backup due to bylaws)
While I don't agree the Tar Sands will stopped next year, I don't believe they will grow significantly in the next few years and costs will skyrocket...and production may slow or hiccup around then. Water is just as much a problem.
What happens to the tar sands over the next year or two will tell a lot.
The fact that a lot of the deep offshore development is moving very slowly if at all as shown that even with current prices their seems to be a cost that above what oil companies are willing to spend.
I think at the end of the day the key problem is you have to pay millions and even billions upfront for a very long term payout. I suspect the tar sands esp given enviromental/NG/Water/Cost issues are either barely profitable or losing money now.
One scenario that will get people out of the tar sand quick is if a company drops out or slows production and get hit with a environmental cleanup bill. The large ponds of waste are a ticking time bomb.
I suspect the plan is to let the companies doing the extraction go bankrupt instead of paying for cleanup.
So my prediction is environmental concerns will shut down the tar sands probably after a major accident and soon.
In their 3rd quarter earnings conference call this morning, Schlumberger said that the problem is a lack of rigs. They expected that shortage to continue constraining production for the foreseeable future.
They said there is plenty of equipment, etc. for pressure pumping of natural gas--but producers were abandoning production because current prices don't justify the increasing costs. The rapid decline rates should lead to increased prices and extraction in the future, but Schlumberger said they didn't see a bottom yet.
So I expect we'll see a lot of pressure for continuing tar sands production for the intermediate term.
The cost will shut it down.
Here:
http://www.polarisinstitute.org/deh_cho_leader_calls_for_tar_sands_morat...
and then Higher Royalties figured in. And Canadians to the East wondering why they have an energy problem while NatGas is
poured into making US cars run and US/Mexican factories
humm.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
We can cut oil demand far more easily than we can cut gas demand; leaving the Hummer at home (or taxing the jerks who think they're entitled to guzzle hard enough to make them reconsider), driving slower and other measures are far easier than shutting down industry so that homes can be heated.
We have to start viewing the Escalades, Durangoes, Excursions and people towing their 5th wheel travel and horse trailers everywhere as anti-patriots. Some sectors of the economy will suffer; tourism, horse shows and the like are the non-essential parts, and we shouldn't let them forget it.