183 comments on DrumBeat: October 22, 2007
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183 comments on DrumBeat: October 22, 2007
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Global warming won't destroy life. Very perspicacious of Mr. Botkin. http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110010763
BY DANIEL B. BOTKIN
Sunday, October 21, 2007 12:01 a.m. EDT
Global warming doesn't matter except to the extent that it will affect life--ours and that of all living things on Earth. And contrary to the latest news, the evidence that global warming will have serious effects on life is thin. Most evidence suggests the contrary.
It will merely re-arrange a few things. Such as Manhattan might be under water. No matter. Move to Denver or Kalispel.
We move from denial to panic to indignance to resignation. Move along now -- nothing to see here.
I agree with his call for a reasoned approach to the problem, but his Olympian view that "it doesn't matter" is not helpful in dealing with real human beings who will really be suffering and afraid as things inevitably change more rapidly than individuals can cope with. Of course, in the end, we will all be dead, and things will sort themselves out some other way-- but that isn't my understanding of the purpose of human life. (If anyone wonders, the purpose of life is to create beauty right where you are.)
It will take two days to flood NYC's Subways, once electricity
drops.
And I'm waiting to find out who funds Botkin.
Noticably absent from Google searches.
I googled Botkin and CO2. Not one match. Not one.
Tennesse Now Rationing Water
Three years into the harshest drought anybody can remember,
something new has been added to these timeless rural routines
—- something that could portend metro Atlanta's worst water
shortage nightmare.
LATOC's on fire. Just like the SW US.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
And why does the MSM do this?
"...harshest drought anybody can remember.
same with floods. Don't they have access to records?
Or maybe if they post the records, they'll have to say
"this "X" has never happened before".
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Western writer Elmer Kelton observed years ago that "West Texas is in a state of permanent drought, broken occasionally by rain." It's probably a good description for most of the US going forward.
Back in the Fifties, there were parts of Texas that were abandoned because of a lack of water, and this occurred when the population density was vastly lower than today.
Oddly enough, in Texas we are in a wet area between the droughts to the west and east. But as Mr. Kelton noted, it's probably just a wet phase in a long term drought.
My view for a long time has been that we need to ban outdoor watering on lawns.
Yes. My cousins live in West Texas and joke that if E Arkansas doesn't get rain every other week we think we're in a drought.
The WA wheat harvest is underway:
Monday, 22/10/2007
The harvest in the drought-stricken midwest region of Western Australia has begun, but yield is expected to be just a quarter of an average year.
Retired CSIRO researcher, John Ive, who is also a wool grower near Yass, says there has been virtually no rain for three months, and evaporation rates are double the October average.
"We've already had about 170mm of evaporation which in average terms is running at about 8mm per day but normally we're at this time of year around about 4mm per day," he says.
"As a direct consequence of the high evaporation rates, soil moisture profiles are as dry as what they were at this time last year. We might remember last year was the driest since about 1944-45".
1/4 of 24 (generous) million tons.
6 million tons. Domestic consumption is over 5.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
My understanding is that the normal state of affairs geologically for the last several million years is one of ice dominating the northern hemisphere for 80,000 to 140,000 years at a time, broken by stretches of warm periods that run from 10,000 to 40,000 years in length. During these periods, both during the ice ages and during the warm ages, the geologic record tends to favor desert conditions throughout large swaths of North America. We have built civilization in North America upon a climatic outlier, because we didn't know any better. But ignorance on our account won't stop nature's return to its most common state.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
GreyZone, you have touched a key issue. Interglacials like the one we are now (Holocene) have been very brief spikes in the Earth's thermal history during the last 450 Ky.
I show my point in the following graph:
This graph - where time goes from right to left - is based on the first in Stuart Staniford's post "Living in the Eemian" at http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/3/0394/97545
I took the Holocene's last 12 Ky and superimposed it onto the corresponding period of the Eemian (the previous interglacial), 121 Ky ago. This is exactly what Stuart did in the second and third graphs of his post, only that here I show it within the bigger picture.
Thus, it becomes clear that, if there were no human-caused rise in CO2 levels, the astronomical forcings that drive climate change ("Milankovitch cycles") would have the world temperature start to drop very soon (in about 3 Ky) and be 6 Celsius lower than today in about 15 Ky.
This can be further validated by looking at the temperature record of the last 450 Ky, derived from ice core readings at the Vostok and Epica sites in Antarctica, at
There it is clearly seen that interglacial periods are very brief spikes, and that most of the time during the last 450 Ky has been spent in ice ages with temperatures around 6 C lower than today's.
It is clear then that, *IF* we want to break out of this glaciation cycle, the only way to do it is to drive temperatures HIGHER than those in the Eemian (which were about 2 C warmer than today's). Which means correspondingly higher sea levels than those in the Eemian (which, from paper http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v404/n6778/abs/404591a0.html were "at least three metres, and probably more than five metres, higher than at present.")
The tough choice for mankind is, then:
- warmer temperatures with a sea level rise (*), or
- 6 C colder temperatures with a sea level drop of 50 meters in a few milennia, as from
(*) The amount of the warming and rise depends on whether there is a destabilization of methane hydrates (clathrates), as explained in http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/gsl/null/lang/en/page2617.html
The potential for sea level rise, from
and given that the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum was 55 Mya, is 100 meters in the Hallam estimation and 200 meters in the Exxon estimation.
Beach Boy, we have the proven ability to warm the world rapidly if we need to (i.e. burn lots of coal) but cooling the globe will be exceedingly difficult. This is yet another reason to keep the coal in the ground. The world is cleary warming now, so lets cut back on our carbon emissions, but when and if the interglacial ends we might need that coal to warm the globe. So lets save it for a rainy (and cold) day.
I had heard this about the NY subways:
Some were built back when the city was pumping groundwater to drink, so the tunnels inadvertently went into the depression cones in the water table. When the groundwater started to salinate and they had to switch to the aqueducts (still in use today), they found that if they stopped pumping the wells, the tunnels were quickly swamped.
So the salty groundwater is pumped and disposed of to this day in NYC, in order to keep from swamping their subway.
“I had a fascinating time talking to engineers and maintenance people in New York City about what it takes to hold off nature…The name ‘Manhattan’ comes from an Indian term referring to hills. It used to be a very hilly island. Of course, the region was eventually flattened to have a grid of streets imposed on it. Around those hills there used to flow about 40 different streams, and there were numerous springs all over Manhattan island. What happened to all that water? There’s still just as much rainfall as ever on Manhattan, but the water has now been suppressed. It’s underground. Some of it runs through the sewage system, but a sewage system is never as efficient as nature in wicking away water. So there is a lot of groundwater rushing around underneath, trying to get out. Even on a clear, sunny day, the people who keep the subway going have to pump 13 million gallons of water away. Otherwise the tunnels will start to flood.”
That it would take only 2 days for the subway to flood indicates how contemporary civilisation is a mutable and organic construct which must fend constantly to maintain itself.
Within 7 days nuclear power plants would be ablaze. Within 2 years roads would have cracked open and within 10 years buildings would be pitted and scarred from the elements. As soon as 20 years after the disappearance of humanity the buried waterways would reassert themselves overground and Manhatten would become many islands with rivers taking on the rectangular grid pattern of the city. At the end of a 100 years almost all roofs would have collapsed. Within 300 years suspension bridges would have collapses. WIthin 5,000 years nuclear weapons would have corroded releasing radioactive plutonium...."
http://designresearchgroup.wordpress.com/2007/07/11/after-us-deep-time-p...
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
All of this is why I think we have to retreat big-time: we cannot continue deploying vast amounts of energy and material in a war to forcibly reshape nature to our liking: we cannot afford to continue the assault and maintain the conquest, much less widen it. (That's my argument against nuclear, BTW, not safety.)
We are going to have to become a lot more adaptable and cooperative, both with each other and nature. We are going to have to learn, again, how to garden and thatch. A different kind of technology is going to be needed, a green technology that is somewhat akin to some of the stuff found in various pre-Columbian American civilizations, but enhanced with the still-usable parts of what we learned in the oil-age. The problem we face is the nature we have bequeathed ourselves is much impoverished compared to that of the pre-Columbian era and our population is much bigger.
"...we cannot continue deploying vast amounts of energy and material in a war to forcibly reshape nature to our liking..."
Precisely.
This is exactly where we need to be redirecting our energy - away from forcing things to fit to our desire, and instead working with our ecosystem. It is like someone fighting against a rip at a surf beach - they eventually get tired and swept out. Typical modern thinking. If they just swam with the rip, or across it - instead of fighting against it - they would have enough energy to redirect their route back to shore. Eastern martial artists have understood this for centuries, along with plenty of other smart individuals, but why is our normal group think so far removed from reality? Why is our modern instinct to fight against the rip? Dumb.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
The World Without Us
How come the subway didn't flood during the power cut in 2003 or 1977?
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3152451.stm)
Or were the pumps connected to a separate supply (much like I remember the phone would still work during 1970s power cuts in the UK)?
AKH
Critical systems have backup power. Really critical ones will have an NG generator on one side of the building and a diesel unit on the other.
When Omaha had the big snow storm in 1996 that whacked power all over the city for three days First Data, a large credit card processor, just kept trucking - lots and lots of diesel in underground tanks. People came to work by snowmobile, but the work got done.
9/11 gave the folks in NYC an education. Generators? Check. Fuel? Check. Spare air filters for generators? Bueller? Bueller? ... So after twenty four hours or so the filters clogged and the generators died.
NYC tunnels definitely have multiple pumps and generator backup for them. Fuel delivery by an armored column if things got ugly would be totally expected.
One of those 'obvious-in-retrospect' concepts that had never occurred to me 'till now. I've worked at a couple of sites with redundant generators, but always both using the same fuel (diesel) - then again, they wern't 'really' critical.
Of course, in the past and present diesel can be bought everywhere. I'm intriguied what sites people might have come across with different fueled off-grid power supplies?
I also wonder whether really REALLY critical sites shouldn't be looking at (1) diesel (2) steam-engine :-)
--
Jaymax (cornucomer-doomopian)
I have designed power plants for telcom, Katrina proved out a few things even with dual genetators with NG and diesel each, after a few days the power will go down, then the batteries run down...etc. Re-supply was the biggest logistic. NG may not be there if the head-end is down and diesel requires the 'system' to function for delivery.
On a side note, the sites with solar back-up never lost power. But there were only 3 solar out of 56 main sites that lost comercial power.
We had power back up (generator) in some sites in 2-3 days but without government help, it wasnt there. You would figure getting communication up would be near the top of the list??? That was very much a watershed for me as I see that lack of leadership on peak-oil as well. We had diesel tank trucks turned away by government as we explained what they were for...
Botkins' article is interesting, but where does he get his data on the lack of extinctions. According to this: http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/homs/typespec.html
there are about 15 extinct species just in the genus Homo.
That thought occurred to me, ranging from Neandertal to Homo Habilus.