237 comments on USA 2034: A Look Back at the 25th Anniversary Year
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Alan: It is a hopeful vision for the USA, but IMO there are other changes afoot that have little or nothing to do with oil depletion. If this is a vision of 2034 USA, it will have to be (to a certain extent) a vision of 2034 Mexico, because Mexico is tied to the USA like a Siamese twin. The expected overwhelming economic dominance of Asia was absent, I assume the assumption is that the USA's relative position circa 2007 can be frozen for 27 years, whatever the current trends. I don't mean to be critical, you have good ideas- for your vision to be implemented the culture of the USA will need to be radically altered toward that of Japan/Sweden/France/Germany. I don't think this will happen- I hope I am wrong and you are right on this one.
Pain is a strong motivator for change. And I expect a lot of pain in the "Bad Tens". *IF* we can replicate some of the prior changes in American history, it will be a positive change.
IMVHO, Step One in a positive change is a vision of just what that change should be. General Motors had it's vision of the future city at the 1939-1940 New York World's Fair. I have mine.
Best Hopes,
Alan
"What is now prooved was once only imagined."
from William Blakes "The Marriage of Heaven and Hell", Proverbs of Hell section
Bob Ebersole
I would have selected "The Terrible Tens" as the name for the next decade. Alliteration is always more catchy.
Done !
I will use this in all future revisions, etc.
Best Hopes for a short decade,
Alan
Alan,
Speaking of the 'teen decade, the vision you have created bears much similiarity to the work and predictions of Professor Jack Lessinger. In his books he predicts a dramatic shift in our priorities (in our new shared American Dream actually) coming to a head in the 2020's following a very rough period during the decades of the 2000's and the 2010's.
His very persuasive premise is that our shared vision of "the American Dream" has changed - quite drastically - every few generations throughout American history. In his book he tracks the past changes and the upcoming one.
The old American dream we have grown up hearing about is nicknamed "The Little King" in recognition of its focus on getting the little suburban 1/4 acre kingdom. The Little King dream is also very consumeristic, individualistic, and focuses primarily on the short-term. BUT it was a useful dream in it's day - you'll have to read the books to see what long past problem the Little King dream fixed.
But now the excesses of the Little King have broken a different facet of our society and a new American dream is rapidly growing in strength and awareness to disperse the Little King and repair the damage. Lessinger has nicknamed this new American dream "The Responsible Villager". This new dream is strongly anti-suburb, anti-consumerism, focused on the long-term and on strengthening the community. (Sound familiar?) Pretty much an opposite of today's Little King.
His original book on this was called "Schizomania" where schizo = split and mania = American Dream (we are currently in a period of two battling manias - the entrenched faltering Little Kings vs the inexperienced but strengthening Responsible Villagers.
He now has a new book updating his theory of American social change called "CHANGE: Fall of the Consumer Economy, Rise of the Responsible Capitalist"
You can read some brief intros to his work at:
http://www.jacklessinger.com/change.html
http://jacklessinger.blogspot.com/
http://www.predicting2020.com/
- but the books do it much better justice...
Your above future scenario meshes very well with Lessinger's predictions of our transformation into Responsible Villagers. Do an inter-library loan request and give "Schizomania" a read, it's very persuasive.
Greg in MO
"The expected overwhelming economic dominance of Asia was absent"
Peak Oil, as Hirsch said in his ASPO lecture, means the proportion fall in world GDP as oil supplies fall. I doubt very much Asia will continue growing, in fact India and China will have a disproportionate amount of people to try to manage post-peak.
Forget about the rise of China as a world superpower, the assumption was China could grow at 10% a year for the next 30 years. Not going to happen.
Yes, and what is China going to do about that? With an ever growing population, every increasing demand for food and resources, and ever increasing pollution they are going to be squeezed big time. The question is will China start to throw it's weight around to jockey for more of the resource pie. If history is any lesson the answer is yes. Just who will be in their crosshairs?
Richard Wakefield
London, Ont.
No one is ahead of their time, just the rest of humanity is slow to catch on.
You may want to take a look at this:
India’s population ‘to outstrip China by 2030’
"Yes, and what is China going to do about that? With an ever growing population, every increasing demand for food and resources, and ever increasing pollution they are going to be squeezed big time. The question is will China start to throw it's weight around to jockey for more of the resource pie. If history is any lesson the answer is yes. Just who will be in their crosshairs?"
Throw its weight around with what? Chinese military capabilities are limited to say the least. They have no ability to conduct over sea operations or international bombing and they have no aircraft carriers, China may have been a superpower in 2030 with another 23 years of growth but in the post-peak reality it will be struggling developing country with a high probability of large-scale population instability issues and hunger.
All these countries that "have no ability to conduct overseas operations" already have the "American people" infiltrated big time.
Odds are that Mexico would have a easier time taking over the US then we would have taking them over, their 5th column is in place.
Of course it is a little in jest, but there no longer is anything like the American people, more like an Iraq that hasn't quite broken out yet, sort of like Iraq under SH.
Aircraft carriers are relics of yesteryear's war. If you truly believe China is so incapable of throwing their weight around then I strongly suggest you review their actual military capabilities. While they may not have the direct capacity to invade the United States, they may not need to do so in order to bring us to our knees.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
Never deny the capability of a potential future enemy that is desparate for resources. You do so at our peril.
Richard Wakefield
London, Ont.
No one is ahead of their time, just the rest of humanity is slow to catch on.