<DrumBeat: October 26, 2007 The Oil Drum Friday Evening Reading>

237 comments on USA 2034: A Look Back at the 25th Anniversary Year

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Will Stewart on October 27, 2007 - 2:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Had we started down the track of shifting from an oil-based economy, this scenario might have been possible. With an imminent (or past) peak upon us, and recognition of it growing, the economy can't be sustained to make the investments required for such rosy transitions, no matter how desirable.

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AlanfromBigEasy on October 27, 2007 - 3:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

We built subways in all of our largest cities and streetcars in 500 cities and towns with almost no oil at all (1897-1916).

We had less than a third of our current population (bit more than 1/3rd by 1916) and about 4% of todays GDP (inflation adjusted).

Just give me the current street & highway building budget, and I can do a lot !

Best Hopes for Realism,

Alan

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Will Stewart on October 29, 2007 - 1:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm aware of the prevalence of streetcar lines we had (your figures seem to be a bit on the high side), though your scenario doesn't describe how we get around;

- Massive national debt
- Record levels of personal debt
- Rapid devaluation of the USD
- Much larger population sprawled considerably further out

I am drawn to the hope expressed in your scenario, though the realist in me gives it about a 20% chance at best.

Current street and highway budgets are 'owned' by the road, auto, gasoline, and tire companies, supported by citizens who are tired of waiting in traffic. These budgets will drop precipitously after the post oil economic collapse. Coal and coal-to-liquids will undoubtedly fill much of the energy gap due to emergency 'needs' of society to maintain its current level of 'civilization'.

Best Hopes for the luck of the 20% chance,

Will

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AlanfromBigEasy on October 29, 2007 - 4:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

WHAT ARE THE ODDS ?

Almost impossible to tell.

But they are zero if I, and others, do not try !

TPTB will not automatically default to the best solutions, of that I am sure.

Best Hopes,

Alan

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237 comments on USA 2034: A Look Back at the 25th Anniversary Year

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