I've decided that there are two types of people--those who now realize that we are almost certainly facing an accelerating decline in net oil exports and those who will realize it.

It's really, really hard to sugar coat the fact that the top five net exporters are almost certainly more than 50% depleted, with rapidly rising domestic consumption.

BTW, a couple of corrections on our presentation.

In any case, the 9%/year consumption number refers to Rembrandt's estimate for the Saudi increase in consumption in the first half of 2007 (not Russia).

In regard to Saudi Arabia & the Economist Magazine. They stated that the Saudis could produce at their current rate (11 mbpd, total liquids, in 2005) for 70 years, without finding another drop of oil. We just plugged in the 2005 to 2006 rate of increase in Saudi liquids consumption, +5.7%/year (EIA), which would result in Saudi Arabia hitting zero net exports in 2036, a long term (25 year) net export decline rate of about -10%/year. Note that the net export decline rate starts out slowly and accelerates with time.

And the average American today uses as much oil as 400 Swiss used at the end of the Second World War (Alan's stat).

Regarding Russia:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL1864486120071018
RenCap again cuts Russian oil output forecast
Thu Oct 18, 2007

MOSCOW, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Renaissance Capital brokerage said on Thursday it had cut its Russian oil output forecast for 2007 for a second time this year and saw minimal growth in 2008.

The brokerage, which had in the past issued aggressive forecasts for Russian oil production, said growth would amount to 2.5 percent this year, down from the previously forecast 3.2 percent and the initial 3.7 percent. . .

. . Excluding the Exxon Mobil's Sakhalin-1, daily crude output in Russia, the world's second biggest crude exporter after Saudi Arabia, has been down year-on-year since May, it said. . .