1 Most speculators do not take delivery, and anyway if they were we would be seeing higher stocks. Speculators betting on higher price will buy a few months out, then close the position by selling as it rolls towards the front month. So, if speculators are controlling the market and pushing it higher, wouldn't futures be higher than spot? IMO highr spot is an indication of higher present demand, if not in the US (which anyway has falling stocks) then in the rest of the world. For example, tapis has been higher than nymex for most of the year as asia tries to attract cargoes.

2 There is growing awareness of PO, and also growing realization that supply has plateaued, if only temporarily, for a couple of years even as asian demand continues to surge. Meanwhile, we are in 4q with 1q coming, traditional high demand quarters. Is it not natural, and long predicted at tod, that more punters will take long positions in the futures? BUt the long positions are not, as noted above, sufficient to rise future prices... why is this?

3. REfineries are not processing as much crude as they could on account of low crack spreads. Another case of high world price and low US demand... why not accept that world demand happily soaks up every barrel that the us does not want, and that for cargoes to come here, we must compete with high asian prices? Tapis is higher than nymex, as it has been for most of the year, even though chinese demand is temporarily throttled by price controlled too low... this problem is hurting the chinese economy, so price will be allowed to rise, and demand along with it. So, the current situation has flat supply coupled with artifically restrained demand in the fastest growing economy on the planet. I see higher prices.