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A Few Charts of the US Crude Oil Supply and Stocks Situation

Posted by Sam Foucher on October 31, 2007 - 3:28pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: oil imports, oil stocks [list all tags]

This a brief (graphical) companion piece to Robert's analysis below based on charts I used to maintain on my blog. The objective is to try to put observed fluctuations into an historical context.

Updated Nov 02, 2007.



Notes:
  1. For some figures (Fig. 1, 2 and 3), the year-to-year increase is adjusted assuming a linear trend (see Are Prices Affecting the Gasoline Consumption in the US? for details).
  2. data points are interpolated for missing days.


Fig 1. Crude oil input to refineries: The gray level image in the background is the observed seasonal fluctuations (darker areas mean more frequent values). The red curve is the observed data for 2007. The * means that the data for the year 2006 and 2005 have been adjusted to match the yearly consumption for 2007 given by a linear growth model (details here). The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.


Fig 2. U.S. Crude oil imports: The gray level image in the background is the observed seasonal fluctuations (darker areas mean more frequent values). The red curve is the observed data for 2007. The * means that the data for the year 2006 and 2005 have been adjusted to match the yearly import level for 2007 given by a linear growth model. The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.


Fig 2b. Same as Fig. 2 but the data has been smoothed with a 4 weeks moving average..


Fig 3. U.S. Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Net Imports: The gray level image in the background is the observed seasonal fluctuations (darker areas mean more frequent values). The red curve is the observed data for 2007. The * means that the data for the year 2006 and 2005 have been adjusted to match the yearly import level for 2007 given by a linear growth model. The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation..


Fig 4. Observed crude oil stock levels (NDFC): the shaded gray values are the observed distribution of NDFC values for each day of the year from all the available years (1991 to 2006) (dark means high probability, white means low probability). The lines are for the last 5 years


Fig 5. Observed crude oil stock coverage values (NDFC): the shaded gray values are the observed distribution of NDFC values for each day of the year from all the available years (1991 to 2006) (dark means high probability, white means low probability). The lines are for the last 5 years. 


Fig 6. U.S. Weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (UROC): the shaded gray values are the observed distribution of the UROC values for each day of the year from all the available years (1991 to 2006) (dark means high probability, white means low probability). The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.


Fig 7. Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) .


Fig 8. U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Field Production (Million Barrels per Day).

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