 | Energy and Environment News Updates (and an open thread as Tapis JUST HIT $100!--see comments!) | The Oil Drum | This Week in Petroleum 11-7-07 |  |
267 comments on DrumBeat: November 7, 2007
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267 comments on DrumBeat: November 7, 2007
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It seems like only yesterday that you could slap down a Yergin and get a barrel of oil and some change .
Get ready for a Carry Trade Hiccup...YEN down to 113.18...blew through the KEY carry trade support point of 114 last nite. (It had been fighting 114 for the last month with internal Japanese manipulations). No more.
Frankly, I don't know what this means in the short term..but just know the carry traders were afraid of that threshold.
The Swiss franc is seeing big day to day moves also. It is 1.15% stronger from yesterday as I write this. About 6% stronger over the last few months. These are big moves for the Sw Fr.
I have read the SwFr carry trade that developed because of its low interest rates( approx 1%)is being unwound also.
Anyone that borrowed the SwFr to buy dollar denominated debt instruments is getting hammered.
Cramer says oil stocks not for the buy and holder:
http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html?clipId=1373_10388657&channel=C...
The stocks are "undeniably trading oriented" buy when low, sell when high. Sort of like what Will Rogers said about how to make money int he stock market: buy a stock, wait till it goes up, then sell it. If it doesn't go up, don't buy it.
Why would the Swiss drop interest rates to 1%? In 2003/04 the Swiss Franc was much stronger.
You'll know things are REALLY bad when the US$ and the Yen reach parity.
The last time the Yen got this weak was back in August. I was reading a lot about the coming catastrophe as the carry trade unwound (bankruptcies in Mumbai, hedge funds going under, stuff like that). It only lasted for a few days before the Yen went back down again. This time the movement is much more dramatic. I wonder if it will come back as quick this time.
yes the yen looks like a very good investment right now.
carry-trading(shorting yen, buying higher yielding currencys) isnt profitable in markets this volatile. it usually follows the dow jones 30 almost tick by tick. i guess you could say buying yen is like shorting stock markets with extrem leverage. and we all know where the stock markets are going, dont we?