293 comments on DrumBeat: November 12, 2007
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293 comments on DrumBeat: November 12, 2007
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GAIA Host Collective
I find it ironic that the ipcc says it's 'Criminally Irresponsible' for people not to take on climate change. while at the same time their report was purposfully made so wildly optimistic that many people are coiming out of the wood work using the report to say that the threat is overblown.
;}
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Don't belive me?
npr recently had on a guy calling himself a 'climate change agnostic' who wrote a book about how governments are making a mistake on how they are battling it. higher leeve's and new sea walls? he said they were a mistake and quotes the ipcc report saying the sea level will only rise a few centimeters. He basically said only higher cafe standards would be the best bet.
Oh, but I do.
I'm agreeing with you exactly.
The Arctic will be ice free by 2015.
New Orleans will have the GOM pounding it's levees.
All infrastructure w/in 18 KM of Any Continent's East Coast should be moved in or up.
Total Crop Failure in Ozzieland. Totally censored.
Tabasco Mexico is still a mess. Totally censored.
7% of Goldman Sachs wealth is fake (SIV's).
Again Totally censored.
"George Bush and Richard Cheney are literally enemies of the state; long before now and by any measure of Constitutional justice they should have been impeached and removed from office.
Abjectly, continuously, and stubbornly refusing to hold them accountable, however, the mainstream Democrats adhere to this criminal president and vice president: nothing they have asked for has been denied, no barriers placed in their way. That is giving them aid and comfort, and that is treason. "
h/t piglipstick
http://www.atlanticfreepress.com/content/view/2816/81/
Kunstler:
"...$50-million Christmas bonuses for trafficking in these inscrutable non-productive financial gimmicks, and were able to acquire fifty-room Easthampton houses, Gulfstream jets, and impressionist paintings.
Of course, the aftermath might not be so pretty for these guys, since the next thing they may acquire could be long prison sentences. If they flee prosecution in their Gulfstream jets, they will not be able to take their Hamptons estates aboard with them. Those who remain my live to see mobs with flaming torches outside their windows, as in the "Frankenstein" movies of their suburban childhoods. But this has yet to play out.
http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2007/11/peak-m...
Depression by New Years.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
I like the part below from today's Kunstler. I recall Sir Greenspan thought derivatives were a good idea because they diffused the risk of the security over a broader spectrum of chumps:
And Goldman Sachs is up 4% today on the news. The entire DJ financial index is rocketing today, and that's with "mark to market" day coming on Thursday.
"Bizarre" is putting it mildly.
Bloomberg's top story right now:
"U.S. Stocks Gain, Led by Banks; Citigroup, Wal-Mart, IBM Rise "
Actually, Goldman's valuation might be considerably worse than that, according to a recent article at Financial Armageddon that studied the proportion of assets at the major banks that are classified as "Level 3" assets, "i.e. securities where the lack of market prices allows them to use dubious 'valuation models' and 'unobservable inputs' to value such assets":
Note that it was Merrill who recently took a highly publicized, $8 billion write-off to rid their books of the bad loans. They're the BEST of the bunch.
--C
Energy consultant, writer, blogger www.getreallist.com
Optimists or Plunge Protection Team at work? Below is an interesting study of optimists...
The Downside of Optimism
By Jeanna Bryner, LiveScience Staff Writer
posted: 12 November 2007 07:28 am ET
http://www.livescience.com/health/071112-optimists-lose.html
'Optimism, it turns out, is best in moderation.
'People who have a rosy outlook are more likely than others to make prudent financial decisions, but those who are extreme optimists make riskier investments and save less money than others, a new study finds.
Manju Puri and David Robinson, professors of finance at Duke University in Durham, N.C., compared statistical and self-reported life expectancies to determine people's levels of optimism.'...snip...
'The researchers compared the self-reported life expectancies with statistical ones, grouping participants who expected to live longer than the data predicted as "optimists." Participants who expected to live an average of 20 years longer than is statistically likely were labeled "extreme optimists."
In moderation, optimism can lead to sensible decision making, but extreme optimists “display financial habits and behavior that are generally not considered prudent,” the authors write in the October issue of the Journal of Financial Economics.
The results held across demographic, risk-taking dispositions and health-related issues.
They find that compared with others, optimists:
Work longer hours
Invest in individual stocks
Save more money
Are more likely to pay their credit card balances on time
Believe their income will grow over the next five years
Plan to retire later, or not at all
Are more likely to remarry if divorced
In comparison, extreme optimists:
Work significantly fewer hours
Hold a higher proportion of individual stocks in their portfolios
Are more likely to be day traders
Save less money
Are less likely to pay off their credit card balances on a regular basis
Are more likely to smoke
“The differences between optimists and extreme optimists are remarkable and suggest that over-optimism, like overconfidence, may in fact lead to behaviors that are unwise,” Puri said.'...snip...
I checked http://finance.google.com and got: (bolding mine)
Sector Change % down / up
Basic Materials -3.86%
Capital Goods -1.25%
Conglomerates -0.21%
Cons. Cyclical +0.68%
Cons. Non-Cyclical -0.14%
Energy -3.54%
Financial +0.76%
Healthcare +0.66%
Services -0.27%
Technology -0.67%
Transportation +0.84%
Utilities -0.79%
Stuff like this is puzzling to me. Every supply and demand fundamental I thought I understand flies out the window.
I guess we will be counting our money, cold, in the dark?
Maybe the economists have a way of replacing the fuel tank on our machines with a credit-card slot? We can simply tell our machines that we have money, therefore they will work. If they still refuse to work without fuel, we can always call for a court order from a judge to demand them to comply.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/12/pf/sivy_scarymarket.moneymag/index.htm
Strategies for a scary market
"You'll never know when the exact bottom will be reached in a falling market. But buying high-quality stocks at reasonable prices can pay off no matter what."
----------------
My response: Some of this article is just rubbish, but some of the generalizations seem obvious enough. The talk about oil dropping $20 is astounding, but if they say so, maybe ‘they’ will make it happen? I don’t know how, but that would mean oil goes back to 70s! Is there any way this could happen? Well, ‘recession’ is the other idea kicked around here, and if they ‘say so’, perhaps that’s what happens. So much of this is manipulation, and it is bizarre how disconnected it can get from reality. But I can see the recession problem as huge, and that can translate directly into a lack of confidence in the market. The only thing forcing people into the market is inflation which is not being accurately reported. But somehow, the dollar goes up against world currencies and gold? How? How do they do it? They effectively just released a bunch of funny money and now the dollar is up? On what basis? It makes no sense to me.
I suspect that this week will be really weird. I think we’re seeing signs of some sort of manipulation that makes the price of oil go down & dollar up this week, barring more storms and pipeline explosions which they still haven’t recovered from in the last round! Once again, my short term reading and trying to sort this out has me returning to what Rapier said as the best explanation for ‘real’ contrary trends, but what I’m wondering about are the manipulations that are behind the scenes and the statements (like the latest from Aramaco) that are unverifiable. If Aramaco claims they are boosting their production from 8 to 12, in the short run their recent claims affect these markets. But can they do that? It goes against all the analysis by Simmons, ASPO, EWG, etc.
The elites have an interest to keep the oil at ‘infinite’ supply, no problems ahead, and lying works in the short run. Eventually, this makes problems worse, that’s the seesaw effect. We can expect extreme volatility as they play this game of hype v. reality.
Re-reading the article above, it just seems like the claims about oil not being at ‘fair market’ are rubbish as is the claim that there is no inflation. Then again, ‘if they say so,’ perhaps they make it so? This is the surreal world of this economy.

Steady as she goes , mate. This is a very, very common market manipulation. Basically, they are shaking out what they call "the weak sisters". You'll find that the traders who do not have a true faith in their decisions will bail out on just such a minor momentum change.
Keep in mind that if a stock rallies forever, it also becomes a victim of a bubble. Be happy that oil is establishing a new basis from which to advance. Likewise gold, etc.
shargash, speaking of the accounting changes mentioned in the comments at the end of Kunstler's article, I visited the links regarding those changes.
I was sufficiently concerned that I called a relative who is an accountant in the employ of one of the US states. Listening to her was like reading an article from Daily Reckoning or Financial Sense; without any prompting from me she described some of the state's investments as "garbage", used the phrase "blow up", and concluded with "it's not good".
She's concerned about ever receiving her pension.
Now I'm scared.
PLAN, PLANt, PLANet
Errol in Miami
If you are not right now the right age for a pension, then more likely then not you are not going to get one.
Watch Paris tonite for previews of coming attractions.
Sarkozy wants to Americanize pensions.
And a German strike has stopped 700 trains, last I heard.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens