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305 comments on DrumBeat: November 14, 2007

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westexas on November 14, 2007 - 10:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's a near certainty that Saudi Arabia will showing an accelerating annual decline rate from 2006 to 2007 versus 2005 to 2006. It kills me when people assert that "Stuart was wrong."

Having said that, as I noted in March it's quite possible that Saudi Arabia will show a temporary increase in production, after the initial decline, because they were so dependent on one field. In contrast, the East Texas Field only accounted for about 7% of Texas production at peak production in 1972.

Rounding off to the nearest 0.1 mbpd, Texas production around the peak was as follows:

1972: 3.5 mbpd
1973: 3.4
1974: 3.4

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rainsong on November 14, 2007 - 8:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Saudi Arabia yet had major projects to replace depletion scheduled. By their own reports they were expecting to reach peak production capacity in 2009 when another million barrel a day project is brought online. So far their national depletion rates might not greatly exceed 10 percent. OPEC cut back production when the price of oil seemed to be heading to $50 a barrel. The plunge in production coincided with an OPEC cut. The OPEC cuts may have masked some production declines, yet the crude + condensates increases must offset part if not all of their declines.

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Darwinian on November 14, 2007 - 9:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

OPEC cut back production when the price of oil seemed to be heading to $50 a barrel.

Opec actually peaked in September of 2005 when oil was, at that time, near an all time high.

Ron Patterson

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PeakPlus on November 15, 2007 - 8:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Oh, come on guys-
let JD think he's finally gotten something right!

He's got 313 posts trying.
Think he's good for another 313?

What's wrong, JD -
Price of Oil can't quadrupple?
Dollar can't fall off the cliff?
Food prices can't take jumps because of increase in energy prices?

Oh, yeah, I forgot:
PEAK OIL IS GOING TO BE A NON EVENT.
Well, two years into it, you are right. It is a non-event. We're still getting ours.
WE are still getting OURS. How long, Mr. Prophet??

Is 5 f'n years a lifetime to you or what? We haven't even fallen off the cliff yet, and you've already lost patience?

Peak is here. But as long as I'm getting MINE, who cares what's going on in Africa?

Cheers, Dom

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305 comments on DrumBeat: November 14, 2007

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