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53 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - November 2007
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53 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - November 2007
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I'm a bit dubious about the notion that it is double counting. If x barrels of biofuel use y barrels of oil, then that y barrels would show up on the demand side and x barrels on the supply side. If they're equal, there would be no overall change in supply/demand.
There is no real need to modify the figures when looking at the whole picture, otherwise you'd have to do the same for all oil resources.
In term of worldwide production you are not correct. For example, our 2nd largest supplier of oil is Mexico. Their total production is of course added to worldwide production figures and the oil is delivered here and elsewhere. It shows up as supply. The products of that oil may then be used to farm for ethanol production. The resulting ethanol then is also added in its entirety to the worldwide liquids figure. No where is it shown as a net production figure.
But the oil that went into production of the ethanol would then be extra consumption, thus cancelling out the ethanol production figure. So I still see no double counting. Am I missing something?
Consumption prior to 1 barrel of ethanol is X. Now that the ethanol is produced consumption is X+1. That's still the X that would have been consumed, plus the 1 that went into producing the ethanol. But we have 1 barrel of ethanol to add. So supply is now X+1, whilst consumption has leaped to X+1 also. No overall change from X consumption and X supply.
Net figures are not needed; it all works itself out in the supply and demand equation.