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219 comments on DrumBeat: November 15, 2007

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Darwinian on November 15, 2007 - 10:07am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report is out with the production numbers for October. The OPEC 10 increased their oil production by 290 kb/d. Saudi Arabia was up 180 kb/d to 8.73 mb/d. The UAE was up 40 kb/d, Venezuela up 30 kb/d and Algeria up 20 kb/d were the other big gainers. Indonesia and Libya showed no change and Qatar was down 10 kb/d.

The real surprise here was Venezuela. Venezuela had been in a gradual but slightly erratic decline for two and one half years with an average decline of 12 kb/d each month. They lost 370 kb/d of production over a 30 month period. Yet this month they managed to add 30 kb/d. However during that 30 month period of slow declines, there were a couple of gains even greater than 30 kb/d so we will just have to wait and see what happens.

OPEC 10 quotas for November is 27,253 kb/d and their production in October was 27,010 kb/d. So in October they produced 243 kb/d less than their November quota. Any bets on how close they come in November?

The two members who are not subject to OPEC quotas were both up considerably. Iraq was up 190 kb/d and Angola up 70 kb/d.

Ron Patterson

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westexas on November 15, 2007 - 10:42am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ron,

Do you know what the year over year change is for the OPEC 12 (October to October)?

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Darwinian on November 15, 2007 - 11:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Jeff, the OPEC 10, those members subject to quotas, was down 490,000 barrels per day, October 2006 to October 2007. That is using the data from OPEC's own Monthly Oil Market Report.

The OPEC 11, including Iraq but excluding Angola, who was not an OPEC member in 2006, then OPEC October to October was down only 220 kb/d.

But if you include Angola, who's production is really booming, then OPEC 12 production was up 204 kb/d.

October OPEC production:
OPEC 10 27,010,000 barrels per day (Less Angola and Iraq)
OPEC 11 29,240,000 barrels per day (Less Angola)
OPEC 12 31,000,000 barrels per day

Ron Patterson

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westexas on November 15, 2007 - 11:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I guess these numbers would correlate to the EIA's crude only numbers?

BTW, where is the production surge coming from that the IEA estimated for October?

FYI--I estimate that the top five net exporters are going to show at least a 500,000 bpd increase in domestic consumption from 2006 to 2007.

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Darwinian on November 15, 2007 - 11:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well, they are usually pretty close but never the same. OPEC 12 for August, from the EIA was 30,200,000 bp/d. For August from OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report was 30,390,000 bp/d.

But my October 2006 data for Angola came from the EIA as OPEC did not include Angola in their reports from 2006.

The IEA says their Non-OPEC boost came from:

Recovery in China and Azerbaijan plus rising Russian output boosted non-OPEC supplies.

But we shall see.

Ron Patterson

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PartyGuy on November 16, 2007 - 12:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3239#comment-263725

So how goes the emergency Ron. Has the sheer panic that you expected to grip the world sent us spiraling in to a severe depression? Did oil go up 50% today cause OPEC had nothing left to pump? Since you've been so quiet today, I can only assume that last months production data surprised you as well, and trashed a few PEAK NOW talking points along the way.

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Rethin on November 16, 2007 - 2:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You wouldn't be so obnoxious if you weren't so dishonest.

Ron was 100% correct.

The data due out tomorrow in OPEC's Monthly Oil Report will tell the story. What they show tomorrow will be it. Perhaps a few more barrels in November but not very much.

And he said it would take months to get the story out

The cat is about to be let out of the bag and OPEC is in a sheer panic. They have been lying all these years about those vast, vast oil reserves. The world swallowed it, hook, line and sinker. And when the cat finally escapes that bag, in the next couple of months, all hell will break loose.

And what did OPEC offer the world? Excuses for why they no longer control the price of oil

OPEC must, they simply must, find some way to save face. And that is what this emergency meeting is all about

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PartyGuy on November 16, 2007 - 4:01am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Except that OPECs production was up almost 300k bpd, and this was before the quota increase which started this month. If they were pumping flat out as everyone said, where did this extra 300k bpd come from? Did they blow hot air up their butts all these years and create a ton of NG for later use? Did they store it in giant super containers to mask their decline? Which conspiracy theory shall we pick?

None of course.

The fact is, most people here called it wrong. Robert at least suggested that we be cautious. I have been saying they would do this all year. Remember when I said I would leave if they didn't deliver? Well they have, and I wont have too now. I understand your frustration with being wrong, but at least make an attempt at admitting you called the peak wrong yet again and move on. Sucks having 2 years of rhetoric go out the window in a day though, doesn't it?

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Rethin on November 16, 2007 - 4:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Except I said you are dishonest. And you are.

So how goes the emergency Ron. Has the sheer panic that you expected to grip the world sent us spiraling in to a severe depression? Did oil go up 50% today cause OPEC had nothing left to pump?

Ron claimed it would take months for the status of OPEC to be known.
" And when the cat finally escapes that bag, in the next couple of months, all hell will break loose."

And he didn't say OPEC wouldn't increase in OCT, he said the increase in Oct/Nov will be OPECS last gasp.
"The data due out tomorrow in OPEC's Monthly Oil Report will tell the story. What they show tomorrow will be it. Perhaps a few more barrels in November but not very much."

But I guess this is how you get your rocks off.

I counseled you when you first joined this board that your dishonesty effects your credibility. To little avail I'm afraid.

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219 comments on DrumBeat: November 15, 2007

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