163 comments on DrumBeat: November 17, 2007
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163 comments on DrumBeat: November 17, 2007
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GAIA Host Collective
Demand destruction is already having an impact on the poor. What happens when these folks can't afford to drive to work? What happens when they stop buying at Wal*Mart and start going to thrift stores?
Again. The assumption is that we will get
a soft parachute glide to the surface.
The place we "floated" from is the problem we're
leaving behind.
Too late.
The Vortex has "sucked up", is catching, the various countries
mentioned above, being "outbid" for energy.
TPTB just injected $47 billion into the system
Thursday. Where did the Fed get $47 billion?
Meanwhile, the US OECD consumer is/has been shielded from
the $95 crude for as long as possible.
The reason the pundits, consumers have been able to
say that high energy prices haven't impacted
us OECD folks yet.
That will no longer be the case going forward.
Elaine Supkis/Reuters:
" The Fed injected $47.25 billion in temporary reserves, its biggest combined daily infusion since September 19, 2001, to calm a rise in overnight interbank lending rates."
For the Fed want to KEEP THIS GOING. They want to have us run more war costs, spend more on the military AND spend like crazy on consumer goods and real estate! This can't go on for the simple reason, wars always cause inflation since they are run by governments and there are only two ways a government can run a war: looting or taxes! We are trying the looting and it doesn't even begin to cover the costs! And we cut taxes at the beginning of these wars. So the entire model is set to failure. While trying to steal the Ring of Power from the Saddam dwarf, all we ended up doing was create this Dragon, Fafner of China. Now the dragon wants to fry us."
ADHD like Memmel 8D
I suspect we may see an effect on the dollar exchange rate following the OPEC meeting, I don't think they are very happy with the current value.
Xeroid.
interesting that you say this:
Right now Venezuela and Iran are trying to force
the meeting to issue a statement on the Dollar.
The KSA is blocking it.
" NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Thursday pumped its biggest temporary daily infusion into the U.S. banking system since just after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks as short-term lending rates rose on both sides of the Atlantic.
Even though some news about bank write-downs from riskier investments was not as dismal as some investors had feared, underlying strains pushed overnight lending rates up in both the United States and Europe.
"There was a bit more focus on the Fed operations today in context of the rise in Libor (London Interbank Offered Rates)," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller, Tabak & Co. in New York."
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
You can access all of the historical data about Federal Reserve daily Temporary Open Market Operations (TOMOs) online here. (Although one wag recently nicknamed them "POMOs" - Permanent Open Market Operations.) The historical data is accessible from that link. If you go back, roughly since the end of August this year, every single Thursday has been "injection day" for the Fed. Every Thursday has seen the creation of $20-$47 billion in new money, from thin air, thrown at Ben's bankster buddies to rescue their incompetent asses. If you go back further though you see how unusual this activity actually is. The further back you go, at least until around 2001, the weekly total of injections was tiny in comparison to what we see now. And worse, the daily injections for days other than Thursday are growing in size. From nearly nothing to a few billion to several billion to now, this autumn, many daily injections are more than $10 billion per day. Ben is printing money as fast as he dares in an effort to stem the deflationary tide that is running out on him. The question is whether he can continue to print at this rate (or even faster) as losses mount up and imaginary dollars leave the financial system or whether the world may just walk away from the dollar before he has a chance to hyperinflate it.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
My understanding is that these injections are attempts to keep interest rates down now that the economy is no longer growing and we have peak oil induced inflation. ( stagflation ) No one is willing to take risks without high returns. What these injections indicate is that the Fed has lost control of interest rates because they are going against the needs of the market. The Feds can only control to some extent the magnitude of the economy and then in general only when its growing. They cannot change the direction of the economy and they are actually as its becoming more obvious unable to control interest rates. We pretty much have no choice but to undergo a period of high interest rates so investors can recover all the capitol they have lost over the year.
The Fed in trying to stop this could well destroy itself.
TOMO's and POMO's are two completely different things.
POMO's are permanent and don't expire short term.
The last POMO was on 05032007
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm
And the numbers you mention are wrong, they fail to consider TOMO expirations.
I just posted a link in response to someone else.
People are looking at the wrong numbers while howling for a bail out. Low interest rates just devalue the U$S. If the people whining for adjustable rate relief had any idea as far as what they are doing they would be looking at LIBOR rates that are overwhelmingly used for rate resets. People need to learn to read the papers they sign.
So far LIBOR has been going up while US rates have been going down.
That's unfair. I think the dragon just wants to lick us slowly until it gets to the soft chewy center.
Rollovers accounted for $40.5 billion of the $47.25 billion injected into the banking system. The FED consistently rolls $40-$45 billion weekly.
Wrong, they added 6.75B on thursday and removed 14B on friday.
http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspx
There is also a link to the NYFed website at the bottom.
Not to say that we aren't going down like Wiley Coyote, but lots of radical political activists use incorrect data because they want to shift burden.
Wrong, $40-$45 billion is "sloshing".
Sure, but the liquidity added or withdrawn on any given day is the net.
I think we're already finding out.
But it will look like a normal recession, and probably most won't connect it to peak oil. They'll try to grow their way out of it, as usual.
There are already signs that this isn't going to be a good holiday season. Food pantries are running out of food, but have more clients than ever. Discounters like TJ Maxx and Overstock.com are flying high, because rafts of unsold merchandise allow them to offer better stuff for lower prices. Even JC Penney, a bright spot in retailing, issued a warning last week. Mall traffic is way down, and even the best products won't sell if customers aren't in the store.
And then there's heat. Every day, I come across stories about how the poor are struggling to pay for winter heating. Towns, cities, counties, and states are trying to increase heating aid to the poor.
My girlfriend is on the board of a local food pantry. They essentially serve the working poor around here, and to get food people need a referral from somewhere.
What she is seeing is that demand is way up - that started months ago. We speculated that some of it might be the crash in the housing market. Less need for the folks in the building trades and all that. But this is only a guess. Most of the clients are Hispanic - that's just the demographic of the working poor in this area.
They recently had a food drive where the Boy Scouts did the legwork of collecting the food, and for some reason donations were way down. They are still trying to get their heads around why this happened. Part of it is that some of the donations got diverted to a church - perhaps they are going to set up their own food pantry, but that doesn't explain all of it. Perhaps people who would donate are getting squeezed, and cutting back there as well.
Poor and working class are a lot more generous with in kind donations to food pantrys. Boy Scouts are a white, middle and upper class phenomenon and might not be as attentive to that type of project too. What part of the country do you live?Bob Ebersole
Arlington Virginia. Just across the river from Washington DC.
The articles I've read have blamed several factors, including increasing reluctance by supermarkets and restaurants to donate food. (Fear of lawsuits, and more efficient inventory control.) There's less food from the US government, because there's less surplus this year. But probably the biggest factor is that people are being squeezed. They aren't donating as much to churches, the United Way, and other charities that often donate to food banks. People who can't get enough gas to get to work or can't pay their mortgages can't donate as much. In May, postal workers ask people to put nonperishable foods by their mailboxes for local food pantries. They collected about half what they usually do.
I read somewhere that the poorer you are, the greater percentage of your income you donate to charity. Not sure exactly why. Part of it might be that if you're poor, any donation is a greater percentage of your income than for a rich person. Part of it might be that the poor are more likely to be sympathetic to those in need. And it might be cause and effect: generous people are more likely to be poor, because they keep giving their money away.
Whatever the cause, I suspect donations will drop as the poor and middle class are increasingly squeezed...and it won't be made up by the well off, no matter how well they are doing.
RichW
I volunteer at the local food bank. We are seeing the same story. The local "*way" won't donate due to a law suit some where in the chain. Two other regional chains won't donate for the same reason. There is also a reglious organization that has set out to dominate the local food program. They say that there should be only one food distribution point. The result is some of the local donors won't give to anyone because they don't want to be dragged into the bickering.
The demand is up also because of the housing situation and an increase in unemployed illegals that want to stay here with their familys instead of going back to Mexico when the jobs run out. With donations down and demand up the food bank is forced to rely more on purchases and government grants. That still doesn't make up for the lost donations though.
In our town, the community garden program and the local food bank are linked. In addition to the plots that people like me rent, about half of the land is dedicated to growing vegies for food bank clients. Local college and HS students provide volunteer labor to raise the food. This is an excellent program, and needs to be duplicated everywhere.
Food banks in desperate need
One family profiled in the story makes $7,500 a month, has a cow and goat for milk and chickens and ducks for eggs...and still has trouble making ends meet. Even with six kids, that's kind of hard to believe.
They are on crack.
Queen Creek is about 15 miles from here and just a little more affluent.
I can live like a king with monthly expenses of about $600.00
When you have people making $7500.00 a month taking from the food banks, then there is no wonder the homeless have to go without.
Yes, they need to cut out the cable TV, get rid of the iPhones etc cut the fat out of the budget.
they may well be paying 1/3 of their income in taxes, so you need to take that into account. May have bought their house right at the RE peak in 06 too.
But they need to do what they can.
Paying $15 for food that a "store would charge $30 for" is a scam. They pick the foods and you pay X for a basket, that sux. You can go to wal-mart etc and shopping carefully, picking the right foods and brands, come out further ahead than that.
$7500 a month is huge money, it's very hard to make that in the SF Bay Area, "physicians assistant" may mean emptying bedpans, I always knew shoveling sh!t in one form or another is better than hi-tech.
No, a "physician's assistant" is someone licensed to practice medicine under the supervision of an MD. It doesn't mean emptying bedpans. It's like being a doctor without the huge cost of an MD degree. Originally, it was a way to get medical care to rural areas, because there weren't enough doctors.
Many HMOs, including mine, allow you to choose a physician's assistant instead of a doctor as your primary care provider. Many people prefer physician's assistants, because they supposedly spend more time with patients than doctors.
Similar story in my area:
"After sending her two teenage children off to school, Mullen, of Milton, headed to the Chittenden Emergency Food Shelf in Burlington, where she hoped her holiday bird would be waiting. When she reached the food shelf, she was told she'd have to come back today to pick up her turkey. The food shelf had run out. ... because donations to the nonprofit have dropped substantially this holiday season."
The strange thing is, the woman featured ended up driving far enough, twice, to pick up her "free" turkey, that she spent as much on gasoline as a turkey would have cost at the local supermarket. (Assuming she drove a typical low-budget car for that purpose only, which I don't know she did.)
I think that many people take the gasoline expenses as a given (only grumble about the price), and don't connect them to their everyday driving choices. Thus that $7500/mo family may have many expenses that are invisible to them, e.g. cable TV and multiple cell phones... and of course 2+ cars that drive out every hour or so. And an electricity bill of hundreds a month.
I think the very poor do take gasoline into account. They have to. There was an article in the McPaper three years ago about it. The working poor were forced to change their shopping patterns, due to gas prices. No more Wal-Mart, because the cost of gas to get there was more than any savings. And they always considered distance, not just cost, when choosing a restaurant. Some were moving closer to their jobs.
Three or four years ago, Fortune ran an article warning that Wal-Mart was a company built around cheap energy prices, and might suffer if that changed. I think that's 100% true. I've pointed that out more than once, leading some to believe I have an irrational hatred of Wal-Mart. Nope. Wal-Mart is now the first to admit that high gas prices are killing them - more so than other companies, because of their structure and their customer demographics.
I do have an intense dislike for WalMart and all it represents, if they fail due to peak oil or another major disturbance, the party is on me.
We shop at Wally's but don't buy anything from China. Gotta be product of USA or Europe, but basically USA is what we look for. Yes, we're the ones inspecting the cans of blackeyed peas to see where they're from. (All either don't say or say product of USA.)
The local Wally's employs a lot of nice people, will hire old people, offers cheap eye exams and other medical treatment, and in general allows poor people to get things they may not get at all otherwise. Like enough dry milk to last the month or a pair of glasses.
Try explaining to the same poor people that they're poor because of unbridled capitalism ..... I don't even want to try.
Collapse may finally bring to the USA the kind of system, Autarky, that we need.
the cure for antrax is death
the cure for igc is collapse
and that is why peak oil is a hard sell
(igc = infinite growth capitalism, or infinite growth canabalism)
With the creeping corporatism of the past decades, you can't even rely on "Made in" statements anymore. Standards have been modified to such a great extent, at the insistence of multinational food processors, that a product can be simply wrapped in Canada and bear the Made in Canada stamp when the points of origination and processing are all otherwise offshore.
The solution is to ban labelling then. After all, in a free market society if people choose to spend extra on something (in this case milk) because it's got something in it they don't like (in this case bovine growth hormone), what is an industrial ag farmer to do and how best to fight back?
Pennsylvania Bars Hormone-Free Milk Labels
Rebuttal
http://www.unbossed.com/index.php?itemid=1842
This one is particularly choice.
http://www.agriculture.state.pa.us/agriculture/cwp/view.asp?a=390&q=142047
Ahem.
as long as they dont accept govt subsidies, but that would be a REAL free market system now wouldnt it.
Here's an interesting article from Ontario, Canada.
PIGS UNDER PRESSURE
And I thought that the strength of the Canadian dollar was bad news for us... apparently, its bad news all around.
The pigs however could be heard cheering the news :)
Not when it gets cheaper to slaughter them than feed them - as has happened in past depressions.
Now if it were me I'd turn the bastards loose in our abandoned subdivisions and other wastelands. Our offspring might need to hunt their offspring one day.
On further thought the pigs cheering soon turned into cries of terror.
I wouldn’t have given this much thought, but I had dinner with a Canadian Tuesday night. He said that his dad could not sell 75 calves in Edmonton recently. He said this was a first. There were no buyers because in Canada it costs too much to raise them for slaughter! Very strange. His dad had to truck the calves back home and will feed them at a projected loss.
I wonder how long the right-wing media refused to report the growing suffering of the population after the 1929 stock market crash. One year? Two years? Looking back we assume that everyone knew everything that we see in old movies. What's worse, back then we had a serious radical movement that worked hard to publicize this suffering so that people would see that their problems were not due to their individual failures but were systemic. Who's going to do that now?
Was it Milton Friedman's dream to lie our way through a depression without that nasty democracy ever getting involved?
[i]What happens when these folks can't afford to drive to work?[/i]
Depends how necessary and large scale the jobs are: if signficant, the companies will build cheap dormitories for workers on-site, and bus them into town on the weekends.
Otherwise they'll be unemployed and desperate. Some will gain employment as domestics where they don't have to drive anywhere, or if they do, the driving is subsidized by their employer. Maybe they'll be working in Dubai and Saudi Arabia like the masses from India, Pakistan, Indonesia and Phillipines. But I doubt most will be hired.
The formerly middle class and affluent will be buying from Walmart.
The hyper rich will continue to be buying from Neiman Marcus.
I think people will move to where the jobs are. If it means foreclosure, so be it. Or it may mean families divided. Even now, I know families where the father rents a motel room near his workplace while the rest of the family lives elsewhere.
There are a few people I know of at my workplace who do that. Their families are, on average, 4 or 5 hours away and they only go back on weekends. Considering the distances, I think that one trip home costs them the same as a regular commuter coming daily from the surrounding area - and I don't think they even live close enough not to do that too.
We've had incidents of slave camps in Houston already. Back in the '90s Taiwanese businessmen cut deals with the right people in mainland China, who lured in jobseekers, shipped them off to Texas, and then imprisoned them in an industrial park, kept in locked buildings at night and then working all day. Their Central American co-workers at the factory were able to piece the story together by sign language, and it got out to the alternative Houston Press. Very much like the Dubai-run slave labor scam on the US embassy in Baghdad.
Test runs?
Slave camps like that get discovered in the Los Angeles area periodically too.
What happens when these folks can't afford to drive to work?
There's always a lot of TOD discussionn as to what happens when... Here's the way it was in the past in my timber area of northern California.
A looong time ago, ~20's: Families lived in the lumber camp. The new arrivals lived in wall tents; husband, wife and kids. When you got enough seniority and if an old timer left, they'd get a company shack. I know many who lived there at that time. And, BTW, they all bought their stuff at the company store.
More recently, until the spotted owl pretty much shut down logging : The fellers and equipment operators would live in their own campers near the area that was being logged. They would be hauled out to the site in the company "crummy."
My point is that is wasn't unusual to live in less than hard surroundings. And, even now, it isn't that unusual for men to live out in the woods and only get home weekends. So, it wouldn't surprise me if some like this occured in the future.
Todd
One of my few shopping experiences will see rising prices.
Some of us never stopped going to thrift stores.
I got a pair of Wrangler "pro rodeo" copper-rivit pants for 50 cents today. Oh and an interesting book, for 10 cents. And an invite to T-giving dinner at a local church on Tuesday night for free.
We already got bay area inflation then.
Probably still got some time before the excess runs out though. Here's a rather humorous indictment of exuberance to rid ourselves of our excess trash:
(November 15)
Mall of America: Free electronics recycling
(Off to China. Better to pollute far away...)
***
(November 16)
Public has need to be freed of tech trash
I read the article on recycling it talks of the new digital standard as a factor, So now those of us without cable or digital tvs are going to need to either replace millions of tv sets at a cost of how much of our oil legacy or we will need Digital-to-Analog Converter Boxes. The Digital-to-Analog Converter Box is an alternative waste of energy.
From this recycling article comes this quote,
And combined with this quote from the DOE
at http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=dta.pr_dta
Of course the electronics industry will make a killing either way. As for me I will give up my Philco TV right after they pull my pre gps chip cell phone out of my cold cheap hands.
Or we could just shut the blasted things off and chuck them out. Good way to save some energy, that.